Saturday, September 16th Play and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Thursday/Friday Foots 3-0 +4.00
Last Week Posted: 11-4-0 +6.74
Overall Posted: 26-21-1 +7.54

Last week quick recap:

Very happy with how the week went. Started strong with unposted ones on FSU and Boise and we continued into the weekend. I got to win a ND bet while seeing some flaws that wouldn't be seen by looking at final score. Conference USA is so up and down that cappers cannot just look at one game and let it decide another(i.e. Houston Cougars). Northern Illy was half of the losses last week. Not sure where their heads were but they musta been awful for that Ohio bunch to just light up the board. Ohio State controled the game and is a proven team right now. As I said before, their defense will only get better. I am interested to see where they are when they play Drew Tate and down the line Drew Stanton. SEC unders are still gold. Vandy and Bama just were never in question. Should have hit UGA -Cocks as well. Auburn and LSU both showed up in look aheads and are going to provide a GREAT college football game this week. I can't wait. Rutgers is the real deal. With Rice and Leonard they have a great combo that is one of the best in nation. It allows the QB a chance to succeed. Purdues defense is horrid. Can't wait till big ten play. Okay, thats it..new week..lets do it again.

Want to post the plays I have put in here now so it refelcts the lines I have..all courtesy of Pinnacle. I also played the Thursday Game and will write that up in a few days.

All for one unit unless specified

Minny -40 -105
SDSU +14 -105
Michigan +7 +102(3 units)
Oregon -3 -124
Louisville -4 -113(3 units)
Nebraska +18.5 +102
Tennessee +3.5 -109
Clemson +5 -105

Most of these are for sure plays. I may back off one or two if research and developments permit as much.

Write-ups and all that jazz as the week rolls on.

Added plays as of 9-12-06

Okie St -28 -116
Nevada -3 -102
Ball St +17 -111

Added 9-16-06

Miss St -12.5 +102
Michigan ML +199
Navy +1 -111
Central Michigan +1 -113
Texas Team Over 42.5 -116
 
Last edited:
BAR..

glad your on UM and Nebraska with me.

I will have the ducks on some ML parlays for sure.

I can't bet on the other games..I need to watch that ND/UM game in it's entirity..It will be a light day for me action wise because of that game.
 
hey bar like the card for the most part. leaning michigan if i can see +7.5/+8 again are you confident in that pick agaisnt a hot nd team at home or is this a homer pick? again i lean thesame way but this is your squad thanks bro
 
Stacks....this UM play has been in motion for weeks...BAR and I have hit ND on the head the last few weeks and UM has run a very vanilla offense, I hope, the last few weeks, they run hart left, up the middle, and right over and over...the UM run game looks great and they have not thrown down the field at all because they haven't had to.

UM teams speed on defense is the best I have seen it in years, don't let CMU get 17 fool you..backups were in most of the second half and Woodley is just a flat out beast..I noticed in week 1 ND had trouble with the blitz and the efffective Dline and PSU defense is just not the same this year, they were on the field too much due to an inept offense..should be a good one.
 
wow thanks for that right up looking at past matchups this game should bedecided by no more than 7, actuall thinking 4 point win for nd here
 
Stacks. You will see more detailed write-ups and thoughts from both myself and Hunt as the week goes on no doubt.

Is this a homer play? No. In fact I rarely like to take Michigan. The best spots to do it are on road as dog.

I like to cap 'ahead of time'. What I mean by that is I like to look a few weeks down line or even the summer before for great spots.

People will say why would you lay 7 with ND and then then take 7 against them?

This crazy world of college football is week to week. Hunt and myself have been looking at this game prolly for damn near a year now. The Notre Dame season so far has went as scripted. We will see if the script follows true again.

In the same lines, I projected before season for Pittsburgh to beat State this Saturday at Pitt. I then projected MSU to at leats cover and maybe win SU against ND in East Lansing on the 23rd. Now, if Notre Dame wins SU against UM that will be a huge play as well if everything goes to order.

I will dive in much more starting tomorrow evening. I may even try and get some thoughts up in a while but I have a lot to do and need to be up at 6am tomorrow so it will be a short night.
 
B.A.R. said:
Stacks. You will see more detailed write-ups and thoughts from both myself and Hunt as the week goes on no doubt.

Is this a homer play? No. In fact I rarely like to take Michigan. The best spots to do it are on road as dog.

I like to cap 'ahead of time'. What I mean by that is I like to look a few weeks down line or even the summer before for great spots.

People will say why would you lay 7 with ND and then then take 7 against them?

This crazy world of college football is week to week. Hunt and myself have been looking at this game prolly for damn near a year now. The Notre Dame season so far has went as scripted. We will see if the script follows true again.

In the same lines, I projected before season for Pittsburgh to beat State this Saturday at Pitt. I then projected MSU to at leats cover and maybe win SU against ND in East Lansing on the 23rd. Now, if Notre Dame wins SU against UM that will be a huge play as well if everything goes to order.

I will dive in much more starting tomorrow evening. I may even try and get some thoughts up in a while but I have a lot to do and need to be up at 6am tomorrow so it will be a short night.
Click to expand...

Then, why don't you have a play listed on Pitt?
 
By the way, I'm tailing your Michigan play on your's and HUNT's advice alone. You know Michigan better than anyone.

I don't agree with your Louisville bet right now. I think with Bush out, Miami's great defense can shut down a one-sided Louisville offense -- albeit a potent one side.
 
I most likely will play Pitt. I wanted to look at it a bit more before I hit it. Most likely a play though Denny.
 
miami catching points is tough...

I will put all of my comments in this thread on UM here if you don't mind BAR.
 
That would be terrific Hunt.

I will have several soon. Prolly not much tonight. I took a sleeping pill so I can awake in 7 hours..lol. Typing will be even more below-average than usual.

First Super Saturday of the year. Can't wait!
 
Here is a good article...will have several more as well.

Saturday, September 09, 2006
By Bob Becker
The Grand Rapids Press

ANN ARBOR -- If you were the Notre Dame assistant coach tasked with breaking down film from Michigan's first two games, your report to Charlie Weis to help him prepare for next Saturday would be quite brief. In fact, it would probably look something like this:

1. Michigan runs to the right.

2. Michigan runs to the left.

3. Michigan runs up the middle.

4. And every once in a while the Wolverines pass the ball.

That analysis probably won't do a lot for your career, but you can only use what you're given to work with. And looking ahead to next week's visit to South Bend, Michigan has given Weis and his Fighting Irish bupkus to study in wins over Vanderbilt and Central Michigan.

Michigan's numbers have been good in its first two games. The Wolverines rushed for 252 yards Saturday and passed for 134 more.

Nothing spectacular, but adequate describes it pretty well. Just enough to get the job done, to send a message and make opposing coaches scratch their heads.

Everybody knows Michigan now runs behind zone blocking, and that the backs try to stretch the defense and identify seams rather than hit pre-designated holes.

That's nothing new, but it is new for Michigan.

Is U-M holding back?

So you can compare Michigan to an iceberg. You can see this mass on the surface and try to find a way to stop it or get around it. But it's what you can't see under the water that's going to bust a hole in your hull and send you to the bottom.

What does Michigan have? I've seen both games, and I can't tell you. They run the ball very well, and they have tremendous depth at running back. This team is quicker than a year ago. East Grand Rapids' Kevin Grady is making cuts he wouldn't have been able to make a year ago.

But the offense has been pure vanilla -- so far.

What will Michigan do? Can't tell you that either. Chad Henne lost weight and now actually evades tacklers. He has a good arm, and he certainly knows the offense and can read the defenses.

But Steve Breaston has only six receptions. He's among the best receivers in the country. Mario Manningham has five. Between them they've accounted for 152 yards and only one touchdown.

Think they are waiting in the wings?

Or were the defenses from Vanderbilt and Central Michigan just that good?

Against Vandy, freshman speedster Carlos Brown ran one play as quarterback. Was that meaningful, or just something else Notre Dame has to find time to prepare for?

How successful has Michigan's new offense been? Nine times the Wolverines have been in the red zone this fall, and nine times they've scored. Six touchdowns and three field goals.

Four of those touchdowns and two of those field goals came Saturday against CMU.

Yet nobody knows any more about the Michigan offense than they did going into media day.

"I thought we did some good things," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr understated. "We didn't throw the ball many times, but we didn't have to."

Eleven times Michigan was facing third down during Saturday's game, and only twice did the Wolverines fail to pick up a first down or score points.

"We threw the ball well off play action," Carr added. "We didn't throw that often. What I do like, with the exception of some penalties, we stayed out of third and long.

"We made some good runs on third down to get first downs."

So, a clue! Michigan likes to run on third down.

"That in my judgment will make it easier for us to make some big third downs on play action passes," Carr continued.

You get the picture.

Everything is being kept close to the vest.

What will next Saturday bring?

Your guess is as good as mine. I haven't seen enough to hazard a guess.

But then, neither has Notre Dame.
 
quote from the detroit free press:

(Hart:)
"He can't throw the ball down the field if we're not calling plays down the field," Hart said. "He was doing a great job, making his reads and not forcing any balls. That's the biggest thing. He's going to check it down to me or he's going to run the ball."

Henne knows the question is coming.

"The deep ball will come," Henne said. "But if we're seeing the secondary drop back in coverage, we're going to take the under routes. If they try to go man-to-man, we're going to definitely take advantage of that.

"Last year we threw that many times and I'm no different than last year, even better than last year. We practice everything. If it's there in the game, we'll take a shot."
 
Hunt, I really think UM came in with a gameplan to open the season. It really seems that way. They biggest thing missing lately has been Michigans ole '3 yards and a cloud of dust' menatilty. That has been ressurected quickly in these first two games. Really, the only downfield was the TD to Manningham against CMU on a 4th down no less to get that second half cover for yas(lol).

They showed Carlos at QB just to put something in Notre Dames mind. They have been vanilla to kind of hurt the Irish preparation. I do believe that they have considered ND game one and the first two games were like exhibitions to them. Not that they didn't want to win or play well. They simply wanted to execute and get back to basics.

The defense is quicker, the running game is more consistent and special teams have been solid. I think thats all UM wanted outta first two games.
 
Mind you, this is speculation. At that, I think it may well be true.

Penn State and Tech both ran well against Notre Dame. Now, I believe that the Irish are better on defense. That makes them a solid defensive club now. The type that can force a young QB(Morelli) or an average offense(Tech) into mistakes/few scoring opportunities.

The Michigan skill guys..ranging from...

Henne
Ecker
Manningham
Breaston
Arrington
Hart
Grady
Minor
Brown

They are far and above better than anything Tech and PSU can throw out there.

The question becomes...

Will they play well as a unit..not just running?

I think so.
 
Last point for the night on my end(most likely..lol)

Last year in the ND-UM week me and Hunt talked this game over a lot and we both decided that Notre Dame was a damn good play. We didn't want to hear that from ourselves but we knew better. They were catching a TD as well and won 17-14. That was a tale of two halves. UM couldn't stop them in first half. Second half, Irish couldn't move ball whatsoever.
 
Already on UM +7 and was surprised it went to over a TD, but it's coming back.

Also, why is Washington getting hit hard against Fresno St.?
 
Last point #2(hehe)

I really do think Michigan will move ball. If they cannot, they are going to be in for a 3-4 loss season. They have the skill and talent and what we hear a better scheme to get things done.

The key to this game is the Michigan defense. I am not taking a dog to stay close in a game just with offense. I like to have a solid defense to back up a dog play.

The problem Michigan has encountered really this whole decade is speed. Its obvious as Troy and Vince have run aroudn the corners last few years that UM had to change things a bit. This is a new era of college football and the recruits Michigan brings in as a group are not speedy enough.

This isn't a one year fix. Its been slowly evolving. Its not just speed, its better playmakers. The best of the group has been LaMarr Woodley. This guy has been an absolute beats so far this season. They are moving him up and down the line and he has terrorized the CMU and Vandy QB's.

They are gonna harass Quinn much like GT did for some time. They also will have moe success gainst Walker. If the secondary plays to potential I think they can keep Irish to 20 points or fewer.
 
RJ. I purposely left that Fresno.Wash game alone. I like Fresno but something is amiss to me. Now that you mention the movement it makes me wonder. Obviously first road game for Fresno. They are so good in the Valley. But, the line movements are wrong many times. Take the Illy movement last week. That line just kept dropping. Funny for a 33-0 final.
 
SoonerBS said:
That Washington QB, Stanbeck, is some kind of good, too, guys.
Click to expand...

He is...but I think that Fresno St had 3 games circled--Oregon, Washington, and Boise. These are their BCS games.
 
good stuff BAR...

I agree on all points...If Michigan's skill players get open it will be tough to cover 1 on 1.

The only thing that worries me basically is the coaching advantage ND has, let's be real Weiss is light years better than Lloyd, BUT Llloyd is a good dog coach, he gets risky as a dog sometimes and I like that. He motivates the team pretty well when they are not expected to win. Henne probably had his worst game of the year last year against ND fumbling the ball and throwing INT's. I believe that is when HArt got hurt as well.

Bottom line is last year's game left a sour taste in many of these guys' mouths.
 
rjurewitz said:
He is...but I think that Fresno St had 3 games circled--Oregon, Washington, and Boise. These are their BCS games.
Click to expand...

Good point.
 
Good work Big Al, wondering if you were interested in Testicle Tech. Lot of points to give a decent MAC offense against one of the worst defenses I can recall out of Tiller (including Wyoming days)...
 
Good stuff Big Al. You had me convinced back in July. Woodley is an animal and hopefully Stevie B. breaks out.
 
Rex, I was kinda waiting on that game. I do like Ball St a lot but didn't want to pull trigger w/o your thoughts on it. I most likely will play that game. Purdue's defense is bad..real bad as they have shown.

What a weirdly played out scenario:

N'western shuts down Miami(oh) who comes to Purdue and lights up board while NW gets pummeled by New Hampshire.

LOL

I will get to this thread much more tomorrow guys. Busy day/night. Great stuff so far.
 
Minnesota vs Temple

Alright, this is most likely the most chalk I have ever layed in my life. This should be worth it though. Temple is averaging 1.5 points per game so far this year(lol). They did get into UL territory 4 times last week but had 2 4th down misses and I believe 2 turnovers. Either way, they spent most of the game on their side of the ball. UL scored on its last 10 possessions after being shutdown the first two possessions.

Minnesota went out West and got handled just as I thought they would .Minny is consistent for one thing, playing patsies in the OOC schedule. California was the rare exception and Mason is probably pissed he even scheduled that game. Now, its the home opener at the comfy confines of the MetroDome and its time to get an easy victory. This Temple defense is so pathetic that even if Minny doesn't have their heads in the gamethey should be good for 2 scores a qtr. Daniesl and Pinnix ahould have huge 1st halves while Capito wwill use play-action to get the ball down feild to the recievers. I think they will be darn close by half to covering.

Second half will just pile things on..

Minny 55-2
 
Just pure luck RJ


Btw, I just wrote a gotdamn novel on the UL-Miami(FL) game but when I hit submit the forum messed up. Shit, I'll have to type it up again later.

Heres the synopsis real quick:

-UL is 12-1 ats last 13 at Papa Johns
-UL gets blasted for beating bad teams. They were leading VT with a backup qb last year in Gator Bowl till it fell apart in 4th. They shoulda won down in Miami in 2004. They beat FSU at the Piza Palace in 203. Lat year they blasted Oregon State after being down early. They play in Big East, so some of the competiton is shitty. Thats life.
-The running backs are deep.
-Many are thinking Miami due to the 'name' I didn't buy this Miami hype before season and still don't.
-UL gets outta gate early, Miami comes back a bit and UL takes control in second half

41-24 Final
 
N'western shuts down Miami(oh) who comes to Purdue and lights up board while NW gets pummeled by New Hampshire.


Big Al-- That New Hampshire win came as no surprise to me. Not even the margin of victory. They have great QB and WR who can put points on the board. Rest of the team is damn good . Good enough to be # 1 in their Division.

Glad to see I have company on Michigan, Loiusville, and San Diego St.
Tough to give points to Miami, but this year's team may not be able to score with Louisville.

The only game I likely oppose you is Clemson. Tough to lose a 2OT game and then go to Tallahassee. Clemson hurting defensively as well. And their special teams gave up a ton of yardage.
GL Glad to see someone else also had a good Week #2:cheers:




 
rex,

I'm eyeing testical tech a little there...just worried how the rebound after giving up the lead last week...that's my only concern...
 
I have seen the line go down to 5.5 at some places...I feel good about my 7.5. Here are some tidbits from Uncle Lloyd's presser.


[FONT=arial,sans-serif]Opening statement: "I thought Central Michigan was a very physical team on both sides of the ball up front, and I think as a result of that, we got some very good things out of the game. I think Central Michigan, based on the way they played Boston College and the way they played against us, is going to be a factor in the Mid-American Conference.

"I thought we did some very good things, first of all. I thought our defense did a good job against the rushing game. I thought we gave excellent pressure on the quarterback, and I thought we played fast. We had one touchdown in there where our safety overran the post, but that's a play that was new and certainly he'll learn from that.

"I thought the thing that we improved dramatically on was our field goal team. Our protection was very shoddy the first game, and typically that's something that happens because it's a high-injury play and the practice at the training camp was something that we tried to avoid. I thought Garrett Rivas had one of his better days at Michigan. He kicked the ball and got great height on it and made his field goals.

"The other thing that as I looked at the film, our kickoff team struggled some, and I think part of that is the fact that we're kicking off -- as I look at our is statistics and our statistics across the country, the intent of the rule change to limit the tee to one inch I think is having the impact that they wanted it to have, and that is that more kicks returned because the ball is not being kicked as deep. With that said, we had a couple guys that got blocked, didn't get out of their lane, missed a tackle. But certainly we've got to do a better job this Saturday."

On Notre Dame's offense and Brady Quinn: "I think Notre Dame is going to score points. They're too good not to. So we've got to play our best game in terms of field position, special teams, but we've got our work cut us for us on defense because they've got two outstanding receivers in Rhema McKnight and Jeff Samardzija. Darius Walker is in my judgment a great football player. They find ways to get him the ball other than handing it to him. He's the third leading receiver. I like Notre Dame obviously; Brady Quinn is an outstanding quarterback."
...
"I think (Quinn) struggled as a true freshman like all true freshmen struggle. I remember playing him in our game his first year. I think he has gotten bigger. I don't know what he weighed at that point, but it's obvious that he's developed physically. He's been in a lot of big games, and he's made tremendous strides in terms of his presence, his understanding of the game, and of course the more pressure you're under, the more you learn to deal with that. Certainly he's had all those things, so he's right where he wants to be."

On running against Notre Dame's defense: "I think the teams that we've played are good teams. There are a lot of good teams out there. But I think you can stop the running game. There are fronts that you can get into that force teams to throw the football, and if that happens, then certainly we have to be able to throw it. We're confident that we can run the football.

"Now, whether we're going to run it that effectively, probably not, 250 yards a game is not something that is easy to do against any competition, and we certainly will have to be more balanced. I think that we have thus far, but I think he's done a good job of getting us into the right plays, and I think he's done a good job, particularly on Saturday, of throwing the football from different launch points. I think he threw the ball extremely well on the run, and I thought he threw the ball well in the pocket."

On winning the road opener: "I think any time you go on the road, and particularly in the opener, you've got some new players, young players that have not been in that environment. In our case the first two games we've had a lot of people cheering for them, and so the crowd noise, the things that go with the roar of the crowd when something goes great for Notre Dame, all of those are things that you have to try to prepare them for, and yet there's a certain part of it that you can't prepare them for.

"It comes back to the poise and the discipline that you want to have as a team, and that's really up to the young guys to pay attention as they go in there and know before they get there that it's not the same and listen to the older guys, the guys that have been there. They're all going to tell them, hey, you're going to be nervous. If you're not nervous going into this game, then you don't have any blood in your body. But that's all part of it, and once the ball is kicked off, then that field is the same size as it is at home, you just have a little bit of noise that you have to deal with."

On the wide receivers: "I think Adrian Arrington has done some very, very good things in the first two games. He missed some significant playing time in the fall with a bump and a bruise, pulled muscle. So he didn't go into the opener (healthy), as a matter of fact, he missed one day of practice that week. But what I've seen in the games I really like. I think he's done a great job blocking. In the limited opportunities he has got the football, I thought he has done a good job, and he's done some very good things in practice. I think Arrington hopefully is ready to play a bigger role." [/FONT]​
[FONT=arial,sans-serif]
[/FONT]
 
Nah...

rjurewitz said:
So, if KK does good this week, the SMODOD should go to BAR? Me confused.
Click to expand...

A Partner is not eligible for that 'special'

Moderators are fair game though

I will comment more3 in a few to all comments today. Great thread fellas.

Hunt, hit me up in like an hour or so..got some shit to do.
 
Okay...tie up some loose ends

Bull-thanks for the input on New Hampshire. You would be more privy than any of us to talk about that team and other non-didvison one teams. I think what I was trying to show with my point was Miami of Ohio couldn't score at all against NW at home and tore up Purdue. I was tying that in with the NW loss last week.

I also see that you oppose the Clemosn game. I am still not sold on my play there. I like it but I could still hedge on it. Scary thing for me right now is how many return yards Clem gave up to BC. Clemson controlled the game but BC made the plays.

Best of luck to us this week.

Renew Orleans, thanks buddy and I appreciate your information on Tulane you posted the other night. Still playing around with that game in my head.

KK-congrats on the new title here at CTG. Hopefully we have a solid week buddy.

Thsanks for posting the presser from Carr Hunt. Great thoughts in there.
 
Lets look at the line movement a bit for that UL-Miami FL game.

The game opened a 3 at about 4:30 Sunday afternoon est.

By the time Pinny opened heavy action on UL had occured..take note

09/105:24pmLOUIS XX MIAMI XX LOUISXX XX MIAMIXX XX XX XX 09/106:57pmLOUIS XX MIAMI XX LOUIS-6 XX MIAMI+6 XX 54.5 54.5 09/107:03pmLOUIS XX MIAMI XX LOUIS-6 +106 MIAMI+6 +106 54.5 54.5 09/107:04pmLOUIS XX MIAMI XX LOUIS-4.5 +106 MIAMI+4.5 +106 54.5 54.5 09/107:11pmLOUIS-190 MIAMI+172 LOUIS-4.5 +106 MIAMI+4.5 +106
 
So, at a 6 at Pinny open my educated guess is that people hammered Miami back down a bit seing that joocy number for Canes and the line is at its present form. Mind oyu, I have another theory but thats for another time.

Anyways, I really love that game. I just hope Miami backers are not using the name of the team and rep to place their bet.
 
Sweet Jump. Good to see you agree.

I think its a blowout. Say some late Miami scores make it closer than it is.
 
Okay, I will not get indepth with the Ball State-Purdue game. I think its pretty simple.

Ball has a very nice offense that will have no trouble scoring on Tillere's worst defense ever. Lets think about it. Indiana St and Miami Ohio shredded the Boilers. I mean, Miami OH could only muster 3 points at home to NW(a hiddeous defense in their own right). Indiana St has Larry Bird kicking FG;'s for gods sake(lol).

This isn't just a 2 game trend for Purdue. Last year in OOC action they let Akron and Zona get 24 each and of ocurse ND got 49. That was a highly touted defense too coming into the season.

Ball State may have a chance at this in 4th Quarter IMO. The 17 is a gift and I will bite.

I am sure Rex will have great thoughts on his alma matter when he releases his plays later this week.

Purdue 34-33
 
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