3 Player Props May 6: The Jalen Brunson Odds Are A Joke
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Miami's Defensive Vulnerability
Miam's defense is strongest inside.
Close to the basket, the Heat defense focuses on keeping teams from being productive.
So, for our Knicks' player props, we should avoid investing in players who are dependent on scoring close to the basket.
Whereas the Heat allow few made shots within five feet of the basket, they allow a high frequency of open threes.
During these playoffs, no other team allows a higher frequency of open three-point attempts.
Miami's defense strength and weakness are related: the Heat often allow open threes by devoting extra attention to potential scorers inside the arc.
Heat defenders can be rather susceptible to blow-bys, which forces the help defense to arrive to prevent the opposing ball-handler from achieving an easy look at the basket.
After forcing the Heat defense to rotate, he can kick the ball out to a teammate behind the arc.
Dribble penetration off ball-screens and various other offensive actions enable Heat opponents to procure sundry favorable three-point shooting opportunities.
My Favorite Knicks' Player
We should invest in a Knicks' player who is primed to thrive from behind the arc.
My favorite choice is Jalen Brunson, who made six of his 10 three-point attempts in his last game.
Now, while it is reassuring to see his strong form, I am not really interested in the fact that he made six threes as in the fact that he attempted 10.
Brunson also attempted seven threes in Game 1.
He is clearly benefiting from Miami's tendency to allow many threes.
Asking Brunson, a 41.6-percent three-point shooter, to make three threes today is a joke.
Best Bet: Jalen Brunson over 2.5 total made 3 point shots at +105 with Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Golden State's Defensive Strategy
The Lakers go where LeBron and Anthony Davis go.
The Warriors lost Game 1 when they allowed both stars to combine for 52 points.
But the Warriors made key changes in Game 2, limiting Davis to 11 points as the Warriors evened the series.
Specifically, they went even smaller -- they are already an undersized team -- and clogged the paint.
While Davis, in his post-game comments, said that he had the same quality of shot opportunities but just missed them, this assessment does not harmonize with LeBron's own assessment of what happened or with the objective data.
Davis, in Game 2, attempted eight fewer shots than he did in Game 1.
His two-point conversion rate was 12.4 percent lower in Game 2 than it was in Game 1.
Because the Warriors won Game 2 in an utter blowout by 27 points to even the series, I expect them to continue with the same defensive strategy.
My Favorite Lakers' Scorer
Now, Davis typically performs better in bounce-back situations where he is coming off a bad game.
But, given Golden State's focus on clogging the paint, which is the space where Davis thrives, we should not invest in him -- or in his teammates who rely on scoring in this space.
My favorite Laker scorer today is D'Angelo Russell, who is a superb shooter at home, where he shot 40.7 percent from three this season.
His volume and efficiency are due to climb today, as he'll refuse to allow the Warriors to get away again with allowing many open three-point attempts.
Best Bet: D'Angelo Russell over 15.5 points at -125 with Bovada
Lakers' Defensive Strength
Defense is a point of pride for the Lakers, who are spearheaded by two elite defenders in LeBron and AD.
It is rare to see this defense flounder, for which reason the Lakers still have the second-best defensive rating despite Golden State scoring 127 points in Game 2.
The Lakers' defense performed awfully in one other playoff game this year.
That was Game 5 in Memphis, which Memphis won 116-99.
L.A. bounced back in Game 6 to win 125-85.
For purposes of this prop bet, I am interested in the fact that the Lakers allowed 31 fewer points in Game 6 than they did in Game 5.
Because they take defense extra seriously -- their defense also improved tremendously since the trade deadline -- their defense is primed to bounce back in Game 3.
For our player prop betting, the key is to figure out which aspect of their defense is and will be strongest and then to go against the right Warrior scorer.
Laker defenders said after Game 1 that they would focus on defending the perimeter better, but then they allowed 21 made threes in Game 2.
The fact is that their perimeter defense is too vulnerable.
But they have strong rim protection. Led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis,L.A. allows the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Andrew Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins is Golden State's highest-volume scorer who is tremendously more inclined to score inside the arc than outside the arc.
We should go against him against this Lakers' defense today.
Best Bet: Andrew Wiggins under 16.5 points at -108 with Bovada
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
- Miami allows a lot of open three-point attempts
- Jalen Brunson attempts three-pointers at a high volume
- Brunson is efficient from deep, yet oddsmakers are only asking him to make three threes
Miami's Defensive Vulnerability
Miam's defense is strongest inside.
Close to the basket, the Heat defense focuses on keeping teams from being productive.
So, for our Knicks' player props, we should avoid investing in players who are dependent on scoring close to the basket.
Whereas the Heat allow few made shots within five feet of the basket, they allow a high frequency of open threes.
During these playoffs, no other team allows a higher frequency of open three-point attempts.
Miami's defense strength and weakness are related: the Heat often allow open threes by devoting extra attention to potential scorers inside the arc.
Heat defenders can be rather susceptible to blow-bys, which forces the help defense to arrive to prevent the opposing ball-handler from achieving an easy look at the basket.
After forcing the Heat defense to rotate, he can kick the ball out to a teammate behind the arc.
Dribble penetration off ball-screens and various other offensive actions enable Heat opponents to procure sundry favorable three-point shooting opportunities.
My Favorite Knicks' Player
We should invest in a Knicks' player who is primed to thrive from behind the arc.
My favorite choice is Jalen Brunson, who made six of his 10 three-point attempts in his last game.
Now, while it is reassuring to see his strong form, I am not really interested in the fact that he made six threes as in the fact that he attempted 10.
Brunson also attempted seven threes in Game 1.
He is clearly benefiting from Miami's tendency to allow many threes.
Asking Brunson, a 41.6-percent three-point shooter, to make three threes today is a joke.
Best Bet: Jalen Brunson over 2.5 total made 3 point shots at +105 with Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
- In order to win, the Lakers need LeBron and Anthony Davis to thrive offensively
- Golden State will be determined to make scoring inside the arc difficult
- D'Angelo Russell, a stronger shooter at home than on the road, will take advantage of shooting opportunities from behind the arc.
Golden State's Defensive Strategy
The Lakers go where LeBron and Anthony Davis go.
The Warriors lost Game 1 when they allowed both stars to combine for 52 points.
But the Warriors made key changes in Game 2, limiting Davis to 11 points as the Warriors evened the series.
Specifically, they went even smaller -- they are already an undersized team -- and clogged the paint.
While Davis, in his post-game comments, said that he had the same quality of shot opportunities but just missed them, this assessment does not harmonize with LeBron's own assessment of what happened or with the objective data.
Davis, in Game 2, attempted eight fewer shots than he did in Game 1.
His two-point conversion rate was 12.4 percent lower in Game 2 than it was in Game 1.
Because the Warriors won Game 2 in an utter blowout by 27 points to even the series, I expect them to continue with the same defensive strategy.
My Favorite Lakers' Scorer
Now, Davis typically performs better in bounce-back situations where he is coming off a bad game.
But, given Golden State's focus on clogging the paint, which is the space where Davis thrives, we should not invest in him -- or in his teammates who rely on scoring in this space.
My favorite Laker scorer today is D'Angelo Russell, who is a superb shooter at home, where he shot 40.7 percent from three this season.
His volume and efficiency are due to climb today, as he'll refuse to allow the Warriors to get away again with allowing many open three-point attempts.
Best Bet: D'Angelo Russell over 15.5 points at -125 with Bovada
- The Lakers' defense, which is due to bounce back today, is at its best protecting the rim.
- The Warriors will rely on its three-point shooters while guys who are more comfortable inside the arc will struggle.
- The top Warrior scorer who has been struggling from deep and who relies on scoring inside in Andrew Wiggins. He'll have trouble scoring today.
Lakers' Defensive Strength
Defense is a point of pride for the Lakers, who are spearheaded by two elite defenders in LeBron and AD.
It is rare to see this defense flounder, for which reason the Lakers still have the second-best defensive rating despite Golden State scoring 127 points in Game 2.
The Lakers' defense performed awfully in one other playoff game this year.
That was Game 5 in Memphis, which Memphis won 116-99.
L.A. bounced back in Game 6 to win 125-85.
For purposes of this prop bet, I am interested in the fact that the Lakers allowed 31 fewer points in Game 6 than they did in Game 5.
Because they take defense extra seriously -- their defense also improved tremendously since the trade deadline -- their defense is primed to bounce back in Game 3.
For our player prop betting, the key is to figure out which aspect of their defense is and will be strongest and then to go against the right Warrior scorer.
Laker defenders said after Game 1 that they would focus on defending the perimeter better, but then they allowed 21 made threes in Game 2.
The fact is that their perimeter defense is too vulnerable.
But they have strong rim protection. Led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis,L.A. allows the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Andrew Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins is Golden State's highest-volume scorer who is tremendously more inclined to score inside the arc than outside the arc.
We should go against him against this Lakers' defense today.
Best Bet: Andrew Wiggins under 16.5 points at -108 with Bovada
