3 Player Props April 29: Rizzo at Plus Odds? Yes, Please!
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Jhony Brito today.
Brito backers will point out that his high ERA is largely a consequence of two starts: once, he allowed seven earned runs in 0.2 innings against the Twins, and, most recently, he surrendered three earned runs in 2.2 innings in Minnesota.
These two starts indicate that, while he may have some good outings, he remains capable of suffering catastrophic performances.
But even in his better starts, he tends to struggle to generate soft contact.
The ability of opposing batters to make good contact against his pitches bodes promise for player props for opposing hitters.
They'll enjoy encountering the lack of spin rate in his pitches and the frequently poor location of his sinker and fastball.
These two pitches make up close to 45 percent of his arsenal, and heat maps show that he often leaves them in or around the middle parts of the strike zone.
Their lack of spin makes it all the easier for batters to track their location and make good contact.
My Favorite Rangers' Batter
I especially like Texas' Marcus Semien to take advantage of Brito's vulnerability.
Semien slugs .568 in 37 at-bats against Brito's pitches, his changeup, sinker, curveball, and fastball, from righties.
Plus, he enters this game in good form, having achieved a double in both of his last two games.
More extensively, he has at least one hit in six of his last seven games.
His good form helps make him a reliable candidate to achieve at least one extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -125 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Rangers?
Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi today.
Eovaldi has done an awful job of preventing teams from getting hits
He has surrendered 34 hits in 27.2 innings.
In nearly every game, he has allowed the same number of hits as he has pitched innings.
This consistency of success for opposing batters makes a player prop bet especially attractive.
Except for his last start, he's also generating little soft contact.
Eovaldi has the disadvantage of lacking significant quality in his individual pitches.
For example, he favors his fastball most of all, which he throws 37.4 percent of the time.
This pitch ranks in the 53rd percentile in spin and in the 59th in velocity.
It is disappointing that his favorite pitch should be so mediocre.
Heat maps also show that he often leaves this pitch in the middle parts of the strike zone.
Despite its problems, his fastball is not his most vulnerable pitch.
His weakest pitches are, based on batters' success against them, his cutter and curveball.
Opponents are batting well over .400 against both pitches.
This success is problematic because his cutter and curveball make up just over 34 percent of his arsenal.
My Favorite Yankees' Batter
Yankees' batters will see a lot from Eovaldi that is hittable.
My favorite batter to take advantage of Eovaldi's lackluster quality is Anthony Rizzo.
Rizzo already has a superb track record against Eovaldi;
In his career with Eovaldi on the mound, he is 7-for-15 with four doubles and a home run, amounting to a .467 BA and .933 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Anthony Rizzo to record 2+ total bases at +110
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Chicago?
Lance Lynn starts for Chicago today.
As evident in his 7.52 ERA this season, Lynn has been nothing short of awful.
He has been consistently giving up many runs, of which he's allowed four, five, three, and eight in his last four starts.
Opponents are likewise amassing hits against him -- he's surrendered 34 hits in 26.1 innings pitched.
One can observe Lynn's regression as a pitcher in the relative weakness of his individual pitches.
For example, he throws a fastball most often.
This pitch is yielding a .333 BA and .639 slugging rate.
The fact that he is struggling so mightily with his favorite pitch suggests that he lacks a pitch that he feels he can rely on.
His fastball does have a nice spin rate, but its negative aspects outweigh the good.
Its velocity is relatively low and heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Player props are intriguing for Rays' batters because they will see a struggling pitcher who has a lot of vulnerable pitches.
Tampa Bay's Manuel Margot
My favorite Tampa Bay batter to take advantage of the struggling Lynn's weaknesses is Manuel Margot.
Margot has already built a positive track record against Lynn despite having faced a better version of Lynn than he'll face today.
To be exact, Margot is 4-for-6 with Lynn on the mound.
While Lynn is giving up 2.39 home runs for nine innings, for my favorite player prop for this game, an extra-base hit or two singles would suffice.
Best Bet: Manuel Margot to record 2+ total bases at +125 with Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Jhony Brito today.
Brito backers will point out that his high ERA is largely a consequence of two starts: once, he allowed seven earned runs in 0.2 innings against the Twins, and, most recently, he surrendered three earned runs in 2.2 innings in Minnesota.
These two starts indicate that, while he may have some good outings, he remains capable of suffering catastrophic performances.
But even in his better starts, he tends to struggle to generate soft contact.
The ability of opposing batters to make good contact against his pitches bodes promise for player props for opposing hitters.
They'll enjoy encountering the lack of spin rate in his pitches and the frequently poor location of his sinker and fastball.
These two pitches make up close to 45 percent of his arsenal, and heat maps show that he often leaves them in or around the middle parts of the strike zone.
Their lack of spin makes it all the easier for batters to track their location and make good contact.
My Favorite Rangers' Batter
I especially like Texas' Marcus Semien to take advantage of Brito's vulnerability.
Semien slugs .568 in 37 at-bats against Brito's pitches, his changeup, sinker, curveball, and fastball, from righties.
Plus, he enters this game in good form, having achieved a double in both of his last two games.
More extensively, he has at least one hit in six of his last seven games.
His good form helps make him a reliable candidate to achieve at least one extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -125 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Rangers?
Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi today.
Eovaldi has done an awful job of preventing teams from getting hits
He has surrendered 34 hits in 27.2 innings.
In nearly every game, he has allowed the same number of hits as he has pitched innings.
This consistency of success for opposing batters makes a player prop bet especially attractive.
Except for his last start, he's also generating little soft contact.
Eovaldi has the disadvantage of lacking significant quality in his individual pitches.
For example, he favors his fastball most of all, which he throws 37.4 percent of the time.
This pitch ranks in the 53rd percentile in spin and in the 59th in velocity.
It is disappointing that his favorite pitch should be so mediocre.
Heat maps also show that he often leaves this pitch in the middle parts of the strike zone.
Despite its problems, his fastball is not his most vulnerable pitch.
His weakest pitches are, based on batters' success against them, his cutter and curveball.
Opponents are batting well over .400 against both pitches.
This success is problematic because his cutter and curveball make up just over 34 percent of his arsenal.
My Favorite Yankees' Batter
Yankees' batters will see a lot from Eovaldi that is hittable.
My favorite batter to take advantage of Eovaldi's lackluster quality is Anthony Rizzo.
Rizzo already has a superb track record against Eovaldi;
In his career with Eovaldi on the mound, he is 7-for-15 with four doubles and a home run, amounting to a .467 BA and .933 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Anthony Rizzo to record 2+ total bases at +110
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Chicago?
Lance Lynn starts for Chicago today.
As evident in his 7.52 ERA this season, Lynn has been nothing short of awful.
He has been consistently giving up many runs, of which he's allowed four, five, three, and eight in his last four starts.
Opponents are likewise amassing hits against him -- he's surrendered 34 hits in 26.1 innings pitched.
One can observe Lynn's regression as a pitcher in the relative weakness of his individual pitches.
For example, he throws a fastball most often.
This pitch is yielding a .333 BA and .639 slugging rate.
The fact that he is struggling so mightily with his favorite pitch suggests that he lacks a pitch that he feels he can rely on.
His fastball does have a nice spin rate, but its negative aspects outweigh the good.
Its velocity is relatively low and heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Player props are intriguing for Rays' batters because they will see a struggling pitcher who has a lot of vulnerable pitches.
Tampa Bay's Manuel Margot
My favorite Tampa Bay batter to take advantage of the struggling Lynn's weaknesses is Manuel Margot.
Margot has already built a positive track record against Lynn despite having faced a better version of Lynn than he'll face today.
To be exact, Margot is 4-for-6 with Lynn on the mound.
While Lynn is giving up 2.39 home runs for nine innings, for my favorite player prop for this game, an extra-base hit or two singles would suffice.
Best Bet: Manuel Margot to record 2+ total bases at +125 with Bovada
