3 Player Props April 22: Better Shooting to Help Desmond Bane Score More
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Grayson Allen's Three-Point Shooting
Milwaukee's Grayson Allen has always been known for his three-point shooting prowess.
His efficient shooting ability is a big reason why Milwaukee wanted to acquire him in the first place. The Bucks love to shoot threes, so Allen was a good fit.
Since his third year in the league, he's averaged five-to-six three-point attempts per game.
This season, he's averaging 5.1 three-point attempts per game.
It was therefore odd when, in Game 1 of this series, he only attempted four threes.
While it wasn't the first time in which he's attempted this low a number of threes, it was unusual for him, and it is not to be expected.
What this low number does, though, is promote the expectation that he won't make many threes -- a player's volume is obviously critical to his ability to make three-pointers because more three-point attempts entails more chances to make threes.
Currently, we can get Allen to make three or more threes at attractive odds, +135 at Bovada.
These odds imply that it is rather a tall task for Allen to make these many threes.
Given the fact that he attempted four threes in Game 1, the odds might seem reasonable.
But I find his last game to be rather indicative of what is to come -- in Game 2, he surged to a four-for-eight three-point shooting effort.
As primarily a catch-and-shoot guy who has demanded more respect this year against his dribble-drive ability, he has a good matchup against a Miami defense that ranks 23rdat limiting three-point attempts.
Best bet: Grayson Allen To Make 3+ Three Pointers at +135 with Bovada
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Desmond Bane's Scoring
Right now, the over/under for young Grizzly star Desmond Bane's scoring total is 23.5 points.
This point total might seem too high because he scored 22 points in Game 1 before mustering 17 points in Game 2.
But he is due for a bigger game.
The key is that the opportunities are there for him.
He has been known as a sharpshooter. This season, for example, he's converting over 40 percent of his three-point attempts.
All he needs to do to get over the hump of 23.5 points is to be the guy who he normally is from behind the arc.
Bane has not scored 23 points, because he is converting 16.7 percent of his wide-open three-point attempts.
He will continue to get those wide-open attempts against a Laker defense that ranks fourth-to-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Bane's smart positioning allows for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
His teammates help him achieve catch-and-shoot opportunities because many of them are formidable driving inside or scoring at the basket -- Jaren Jackson Jr. is one such player.
Their activity inside will compel attention from the Lakers' defenders who would rather outnumber their counterparts inside the paint when they are trying to score at the basket.
Bane can also create his own shot with a nice step-back.
He'll act like he's cutting towards the basket and then pop up behind the arc.
He also benefits from dribble hand-off actions, which position him to score by shifting the defense.
Of course, with his comfort with ball-handling he can penetrate inside himself, punishing defenses for guarding him too closely behind the arc.
Best Bet: Desmond Bane Over 23.5 Points at +100 with Bovada
Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Scoring
Especially with offensive centerpiece Ja Morant hurt, Memphis needs players to step up on offense.
Morant has a hand injury that has him listed as 'doubtful' for this game.
One player who is primed to step up is power forward Jaren Jackson Jr.
While he scored 31 points in Game 1, he scored 18 points in Game 2.
The question of whether he will achieve a high point total in Game 3 might seem hard to answer because of the disparity between his Game 1 and Game 2 point totals.
But Game 2 was rather odd in that teammate Xavier Tillman was highly involved offensively.
With fewer points from Tillman, especially, Jackson Jr. will grow more involved again as in Game 1.
The key here is that the Lakers still struggle on defense to contain him.
His mobility and general skills set makes him too difficult for Laker defenders besides Anthony Davis.
He is particularly promising because he keeps accruing minutes with Davis on the bench. In fact, no Grizzly plays as many minutes as Jackson Jr. does when Davis is on the bench.
So far in this series, Memphis is +17 with Jackson Jr. playing and Davis sitting.
Evidently, the Grizzlies are taking advantage of times when Davis is absent from the game.
Of course, Jackson Jr. remains a weapon when Davis is on the court.
Jackson Jr. benefits from a high usage rate -- especially with Morant not playing.
He is inclined to be aggressive offensively as he can score in various ways, such as by utilizing a pick-and-roll, by rim-running, or by pulling up for a shot.
Best Bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. to score 25+ points at +125 with Bovada
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Grayson Allen's Three-Point Shooting
Milwaukee's Grayson Allen has always been known for his three-point shooting prowess.
His efficient shooting ability is a big reason why Milwaukee wanted to acquire him in the first place. The Bucks love to shoot threes, so Allen was a good fit.
Since his third year in the league, he's averaged five-to-six three-point attempts per game.
This season, he's averaging 5.1 three-point attempts per game.
It was therefore odd when, in Game 1 of this series, he only attempted four threes.
While it wasn't the first time in which he's attempted this low a number of threes, it was unusual for him, and it is not to be expected.
What this low number does, though, is promote the expectation that he won't make many threes -- a player's volume is obviously critical to his ability to make three-pointers because more three-point attempts entails more chances to make threes.
Currently, we can get Allen to make three or more threes at attractive odds, +135 at Bovada.
These odds imply that it is rather a tall task for Allen to make these many threes.
Given the fact that he attempted four threes in Game 1, the odds might seem reasonable.
But I find his last game to be rather indicative of what is to come -- in Game 2, he surged to a four-for-eight three-point shooting effort.
As primarily a catch-and-shoot guy who has demanded more respect this year against his dribble-drive ability, he has a good matchup against a Miami defense that ranks 23rdat limiting three-point attempts.
Best bet: Grayson Allen To Make 3+ Three Pointers at +135 with Bovada
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Desmond Bane's Scoring
Right now, the over/under for young Grizzly star Desmond Bane's scoring total is 23.5 points.
This point total might seem too high because he scored 22 points in Game 1 before mustering 17 points in Game 2.
But he is due for a bigger game.
The key is that the opportunities are there for him.
He has been known as a sharpshooter. This season, for example, he's converting over 40 percent of his three-point attempts.
All he needs to do to get over the hump of 23.5 points is to be the guy who he normally is from behind the arc.
Bane has not scored 23 points, because he is converting 16.7 percent of his wide-open three-point attempts.
He will continue to get those wide-open attempts against a Laker defense that ranks fourth-to-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Bane's smart positioning allows for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
His teammates help him achieve catch-and-shoot opportunities because many of them are formidable driving inside or scoring at the basket -- Jaren Jackson Jr. is one such player.
Their activity inside will compel attention from the Lakers' defenders who would rather outnumber their counterparts inside the paint when they are trying to score at the basket.
Bane can also create his own shot with a nice step-back.
He'll act like he's cutting towards the basket and then pop up behind the arc.
He also benefits from dribble hand-off actions, which position him to score by shifting the defense.
Of course, with his comfort with ball-handling he can penetrate inside himself, punishing defenses for guarding him too closely behind the arc.
Best Bet: Desmond Bane Over 23.5 Points at +100 with Bovada
Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Scoring
Especially with offensive centerpiece Ja Morant hurt, Memphis needs players to step up on offense.
Morant has a hand injury that has him listed as 'doubtful' for this game.
One player who is primed to step up is power forward Jaren Jackson Jr.
While he scored 31 points in Game 1, he scored 18 points in Game 2.
The question of whether he will achieve a high point total in Game 3 might seem hard to answer because of the disparity between his Game 1 and Game 2 point totals.
But Game 2 was rather odd in that teammate Xavier Tillman was highly involved offensively.
With fewer points from Tillman, especially, Jackson Jr. will grow more involved again as in Game 1.
The key here is that the Lakers still struggle on defense to contain him.
His mobility and general skills set makes him too difficult for Laker defenders besides Anthony Davis.
He is particularly promising because he keeps accruing minutes with Davis on the bench. In fact, no Grizzly plays as many minutes as Jackson Jr. does when Davis is on the bench.
So far in this series, Memphis is +17 with Jackson Jr. playing and Davis sitting.
Evidently, the Grizzlies are taking advantage of times when Davis is absent from the game.
Of course, Jackson Jr. remains a weapon when Davis is on the court.
Jackson Jr. benefits from a high usage rate -- especially with Morant not playing.
He is inclined to be aggressive offensively as he can score in various ways, such as by utilizing a pick-and-roll, by rim-running, or by pulling up for a shot.
Best Bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. to score 25+ points at +125 with Bovada
