3 Player Props April 22: Pittsburgh's Jack Suwinski Has Become A Real Threat
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Colorado?
Southpaw Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies.
After strong starts against slow-starting San Diego and lowly Washington, Freeland has fallen back down to Earth.
Most recently, he was shelled by a Pittsburgh lineup that has surged against left-handed pitching.
Philadelphia's positive output against left-handed pitching is more expected.
Like last year, the Phillies rank among baseball's better teams in terms of slugging against southpaws.
Freeland's vulnerability to right-handed hitting gives lineups with guys who can hit well from the right side of the plate more opportunities to thrive against him.
As Freeland has fallen back down to Earth these last two games, he has given up three home runs, all of them to guys hitting from the right side of the plate.
On the season, righties are slugging .484 against him.
So, for our player prop bets, we'll want to find a right-handed Phillies batter.
Freeland's Profile
Freeland is a rather hittable pitcher.
He features a mix of five different pitches, although he favors his sinker and slider, which combine to make up 65.4 percent of his arsenal.
Neither pitch enjoys good location, as heat maps show.
Relatively low velocity and frequent location in the middle parts of the strike zone is a recipe for opposing batters to get hits.
Philadelphia's Josh Harrison
My favorite Philly batter today is Josh Harrison.
In his career, he is 3-for-9 with a double and a homer against Freeland.
His track record with Freeland pitching offers confidence that he'll get at least one extra-base hit today.
Best Bet: Josh Harrison to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Luis Cessa is coming off a disastrous start in which he allowed 11 earned runs in three innings against Phillies.
While one may cast this performance as an outlier, his second-to-last start doesn't exactly justify optimism toward him, either.
Two starts ago, he allowed five earned runs against Atlanta.
As part of this negative trend, he has been particularly vulnerable to opposing slugging.
He has allowed three home runs in these two games.
Moreover, opponents are crushing his pitches.
After he yielded a 50 percent hard contact rate against Atlanta, Philly batters achieved hard contact 39.1 percent of the time with him on the mound.
Cessa's Profile
The lack of quality of Cessa's individual pitches makes him rather vulnerable.
Generally, his pitches lack spin and velocity.
His fastball, for example, ranks in the 45thpercentile in spin and in the 17thpercentile in velo.
Of course, spin doesn't seem to help him much.
His slider is his best 'spin' pitch, yet opponents are hitting .333 and slugging .500 against it.
Cessa's issues with his slider are particularly troubling because his slider is the pitch that he throws most often.
He lacks alternatives. Opponents are hitting .333 or better against all four of his pitches. They are slugging over .800 against two of them.
My Favorite Pirates' Batter
I like Jack Suwinski to take advantage of Cessa's vulnerability.
Suwinski has overcome his slow start to the season, raising his BA close to .200 and his slugging rate over .550 in the past two weeks.
Plus, he slugs .815 against Cessa's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Jack Suwinski to record 2+ total bases at +125 with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Detroit?
Southpaw Joey Wentz starts for the Tigers.
Wentz finally had a good start in his last game.
But that start came against a San Francisco lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching.
Before that start, Wentz allowed five earned runs to Boston after conceding three earned runs in 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay.
Wentz's start against the Giants wasn't even that good in terms of individual performance.
His 3.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how modestly he actually performed.
Perhaps most troublesome was the fact that he induced soft contact six percent of the time.
Wentz's Profile
Typically, left-handed pitchers do well against same-handed batters while they have more trouble against opposite-handed batters who have an easier time perceiving their pitches.
But Wentz is vulnerable to guys on both sides of the plate.
While righties are hitting .220 and slugging .415 against him, lefties are actually doing better.
Left-handed batters are hitting .286 and slugging .429 with Wentz on the mound.
So, for our player prop bet, we should remain open to left-handed batters.
As Baltimore has thrived against left-handed pitching this season, we have plenty of Orioles' players to choose from who would make strong candidates.
Baltimore's Cedric Mullins
My favorite Orioles' batter today is Cedric Mullins, who is slugging .600 against lefties.
Mullins is surging with three multi-hit games in his last five games.
During this ongoing five-game streak, he has two doubles and a triple.
For this prop bet to hit, we'll need him to achieve at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would also suffice.
Best Bet: Cedric Mullins to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Colorado?
Southpaw Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies.
After strong starts against slow-starting San Diego and lowly Washington, Freeland has fallen back down to Earth.
Most recently, he was shelled by a Pittsburgh lineup that has surged against left-handed pitching.
Philadelphia's positive output against left-handed pitching is more expected.
Like last year, the Phillies rank among baseball's better teams in terms of slugging against southpaws.
Freeland's vulnerability to right-handed hitting gives lineups with guys who can hit well from the right side of the plate more opportunities to thrive against him.
As Freeland has fallen back down to Earth these last two games, he has given up three home runs, all of them to guys hitting from the right side of the plate.
On the season, righties are slugging .484 against him.
So, for our player prop bets, we'll want to find a right-handed Phillies batter.
Freeland's Profile
Freeland is a rather hittable pitcher.
He features a mix of five different pitches, although he favors his sinker and slider, which combine to make up 65.4 percent of his arsenal.
Neither pitch enjoys good location, as heat maps show.
Relatively low velocity and frequent location in the middle parts of the strike zone is a recipe for opposing batters to get hits.
Philadelphia's Josh Harrison
My favorite Philly batter today is Josh Harrison.
In his career, he is 3-for-9 with a double and a homer against Freeland.
His track record with Freeland pitching offers confidence that he'll get at least one extra-base hit today.
Best Bet: Josh Harrison to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Luis Cessa is coming off a disastrous start in which he allowed 11 earned runs in three innings against Phillies.
While one may cast this performance as an outlier, his second-to-last start doesn't exactly justify optimism toward him, either.
Two starts ago, he allowed five earned runs against Atlanta.
As part of this negative trend, he has been particularly vulnerable to opposing slugging.
He has allowed three home runs in these two games.
Moreover, opponents are crushing his pitches.
After he yielded a 50 percent hard contact rate against Atlanta, Philly batters achieved hard contact 39.1 percent of the time with him on the mound.
Cessa's Profile
The lack of quality of Cessa's individual pitches makes him rather vulnerable.
Generally, his pitches lack spin and velocity.
His fastball, for example, ranks in the 45thpercentile in spin and in the 17thpercentile in velo.
Of course, spin doesn't seem to help him much.
His slider is his best 'spin' pitch, yet opponents are hitting .333 and slugging .500 against it.
Cessa's issues with his slider are particularly troubling because his slider is the pitch that he throws most often.
He lacks alternatives. Opponents are hitting .333 or better against all four of his pitches. They are slugging over .800 against two of them.
My Favorite Pirates' Batter
I like Jack Suwinski to take advantage of Cessa's vulnerability.
Suwinski has overcome his slow start to the season, raising his BA close to .200 and his slugging rate over .550 in the past two weeks.
Plus, he slugs .815 against Cessa's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Jack Suwinski to record 2+ total bases at +125 with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Detroit?
Southpaw Joey Wentz starts for the Tigers.
Wentz finally had a good start in his last game.
But that start came against a San Francisco lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching.
Before that start, Wentz allowed five earned runs to Boston after conceding three earned runs in 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay.
Wentz's start against the Giants wasn't even that good in terms of individual performance.
His 3.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how modestly he actually performed.
Perhaps most troublesome was the fact that he induced soft contact six percent of the time.
Wentz's Profile
Typically, left-handed pitchers do well against same-handed batters while they have more trouble against opposite-handed batters who have an easier time perceiving their pitches.
But Wentz is vulnerable to guys on both sides of the plate.
While righties are hitting .220 and slugging .415 against him, lefties are actually doing better.
Left-handed batters are hitting .286 and slugging .429 with Wentz on the mound.
So, for our player prop bet, we should remain open to left-handed batters.
As Baltimore has thrived against left-handed pitching this season, we have plenty of Orioles' players to choose from who would make strong candidates.
Baltimore's Cedric Mullins
My favorite Orioles' batter today is Cedric Mullins, who is slugging .600 against lefties.
Mullins is surging with three multi-hit games in his last five games.
During this ongoing five-game streak, he has two doubles and a triple.
For this prop bet to hit, we'll need him to achieve at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would also suffice.
Best Bet: Cedric Mullins to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
