3 Player Props May 27: Justin Verlander is not Afraid of Coors Field
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals today.
One reason why Flaherty is a good bet to not allow many hits is that he is a walk machine -- he walks 5.82 batters per nine innings.
The ratio of his hits allowed to walks allowed suggests that he is rather inclined to walk a batter than to allow a hit.
Indeed, heat maps suggest that he often favors the edges of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
In nibbling the corners of the strike zone, though, many of his pitches end up landing outside of the zone altogether.
Less than 40 percent of his pitches are strikes, overall.
Besides his inclination to walk batters, Flaherty's stuff makes him hard to hit and sometimes hard to even touch.
Most prominently, he gladly throws a curveball that induces whiffs with 47.9 percent frequency.
This pitch has a lot of spin and he does an excellent job of locating it in the lowest parts of the strike zone or below it.
The Pick
I recommend investing in Flaherty to allow fewer than six hits today.
Out of his 10 starts this season, only three teams accrued more than five hits off him.
Two of those teams matched up very well against them.
Cleveland, however, matches up poorly against him.
Flaherty is a righty who throws primarily a fastball, slider, curveball, and cutter.
Cleveland ranks 29th in slugging .344 against these pitches from righties.
Therefore, Flaherty is primed to thrive today.
Best Bet: Jack Flaherty under 5.5 hits allowed at -162 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for the Mets?
Justin Verlander starts for the Mets today.
Verlander's 3.60 ERA is not bad, but it still might suggest that he is not the great pitcher that he is normally thought to be.
However, his ERA is as high as it is because he had one bad start -- he was slammed by the elite Rays.
In his three other starts, he allowed a combined total of four earned runs in 20 innings.
Indeed, Verlander still features pitches that are hard to hit.
His two favorite ones are his fastball and slider, which combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
His fastball has pretty good velocity but an exceptionally strong spin rate.
He likes to elevate this pitch in the zone, which gives it the appearance of rising action that makes it hard for batters to track its location.
Opposing batters hit .204 against this pitch.
Yet they fare even worse against his slider, which yields a .154.
He does a great job of burying it low in the zone. It has a lot of spin and he throws it rather hard, although it still creates a good change of pace relative to his fastball.
The Pick
Expect Verlander to allow few hits today because, among those with at least seven career at-bats against him, Rockie batters struggle to hit him historically.
C.J. Cron, for example, is 5-for-29 lifetime against him.
Pitching in Coors Field won't bother Verlander, either.
He yields a .137 BA in two career starts here.
Best Bet: Justin Verlander under 6.5 hits allowed at -150 with BetOnline
Who Pitches for the Rockies?
Chase Anderson pitches for the Rockies today.
Anderson might seem to be having a great season because his ERA is 1.15, but there's a lot wrong with him that's lurking beneath the surface.
He has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate -- there is no way he continues stranding 87.5 percent of the runners he allows to get on base.
Moreover, Anderson has only started two games so far.
Both of those starts took place against teams that happen to match up poorly against him -- Miami ranks 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties; Cincinnati ranks 25th.
Anderson really is hittable because his favorite pitch, the fastball, looks like a pitch that is rather easy to hit.
Its spin rate is above-average but its velocity ranks in the 33rd percentile.
These numbers indicate that batters will have a rather easy time making good contact with this pitch.
Indeed, the .444 xSLG (expected slugging rate) that Anderson's fastball yields suggests that hitters will generate a stronger slugging rate against this pitch than they've been doing so far.
Starling Marte
My favorite Mets' batter to thrive today is Starling Marte.
His xSLG is almost 1.000 higher than his actual slugging rate, which suggests that he's due to increase his actual slugging rate.
His outlook today is especially positive because he has a strong track record against Anderson.
Marte is 16-for-37 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run, amounting to a .432 BA and .730 slugging rate, in his career facing Anderson.
Best Bet: Starling Marte over 1.5 total bases (from hits) at +152 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Jack Flaherty's tendency to walk batters deflates his hits allowed number
- Flaherty has struggled primarily against teams that match up well against him
- Cleveland matches up poorly against him
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals today.
One reason why Flaherty is a good bet to not allow many hits is that he is a walk machine -- he walks 5.82 batters per nine innings.
The ratio of his hits allowed to walks allowed suggests that he is rather inclined to walk a batter than to allow a hit.
Indeed, heat maps suggest that he often favors the edges of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
In nibbling the corners of the strike zone, though, many of his pitches end up landing outside of the zone altogether.
Less than 40 percent of his pitches are strikes, overall.
Besides his inclination to walk batters, Flaherty's stuff makes him hard to hit and sometimes hard to even touch.
Most prominently, he gladly throws a curveball that induces whiffs with 47.9 percent frequency.
This pitch has a lot of spin and he does an excellent job of locating it in the lowest parts of the strike zone or below it.
The Pick
I recommend investing in Flaherty to allow fewer than six hits today.
Out of his 10 starts this season, only three teams accrued more than five hits off him.
Two of those teams matched up very well against them.
Cleveland, however, matches up poorly against him.
Flaherty is a righty who throws primarily a fastball, slider, curveball, and cutter.
Cleveland ranks 29th in slugging .344 against these pitches from righties.
Therefore, Flaherty is primed to thrive today.
Best Bet: Jack Flaherty under 5.5 hits allowed at -162 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
- Justin Verlander is performing well this season
- Verlander has a strong history in Coors Field
- Rockie batters do not hit Verlander well historically
Who Starts for the Mets?
Justin Verlander starts for the Mets today.
Verlander's 3.60 ERA is not bad, but it still might suggest that he is not the great pitcher that he is normally thought to be.
However, his ERA is as high as it is because he had one bad start -- he was slammed by the elite Rays.
In his three other starts, he allowed a combined total of four earned runs in 20 innings.
Indeed, Verlander still features pitches that are hard to hit.
His two favorite ones are his fastball and slider, which combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
His fastball has pretty good velocity but an exceptionally strong spin rate.
He likes to elevate this pitch in the zone, which gives it the appearance of rising action that makes it hard for batters to track its location.
Opposing batters hit .204 against this pitch.
Yet they fare even worse against his slider, which yields a .154.
He does a great job of burying it low in the zone. It has a lot of spin and he throws it rather hard, although it still creates a good change of pace relative to his fastball.
The Pick
Expect Verlander to allow few hits today because, among those with at least seven career at-bats against him, Rockie batters struggle to hit him historically.
C.J. Cron, for example, is 5-for-29 lifetime against him.
Pitching in Coors Field won't bother Verlander, either.
He yields a .137 BA in two career starts here.
Best Bet: Justin Verlander under 6.5 hits allowed at -150 with BetOnline
- Chase Anderson has benefitted from facing soft competition
- Anderson's favorite pitch looks very hittable
- Starling Marte has a great track record against Anderson
Who Pitches for the Rockies?
Chase Anderson pitches for the Rockies today.
Anderson might seem to be having a great season because his ERA is 1.15, but there's a lot wrong with him that's lurking beneath the surface.
He has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate -- there is no way he continues stranding 87.5 percent of the runners he allows to get on base.
Moreover, Anderson has only started two games so far.
Both of those starts took place against teams that happen to match up poorly against him -- Miami ranks 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties; Cincinnati ranks 25th.
Anderson really is hittable because his favorite pitch, the fastball, looks like a pitch that is rather easy to hit.
Its spin rate is above-average but its velocity ranks in the 33rd percentile.
These numbers indicate that batters will have a rather easy time making good contact with this pitch.
Indeed, the .444 xSLG (expected slugging rate) that Anderson's fastball yields suggests that hitters will generate a stronger slugging rate against this pitch than they've been doing so far.
Starling Marte
My favorite Mets' batter to thrive today is Starling Marte.
His xSLG is almost 1.000 higher than his actual slugging rate, which suggests that he's due to increase his actual slugging rate.
His outlook today is especially positive because he has a strong track record against Anderson.
Marte is 16-for-37 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run, amounting to a .432 BA and .730 slugging rate, in his career facing Anderson.
Best Bet: Starling Marte over 1.5 total bases (from hits) at +152 with BetOnline
