3 Player Props May 6: Brady Singer Gets to Face Oakland's Lineup
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Brady Singer's Season So Far
It might seem undesirable to back Royals' starter Brady Singer given the fact that his ERA is so high.
But let's dismiss unreasonable worries.
His ERA is as high as it is primarily because he was slammed by Atlanta and in Minnesota.
All his high ERA shows, therefore, is that we should not trust him against higher-caliber lineups.
But Oakland's lineup is anything but high-caliber.
Whereas the Twins and the Braves both rank in the upper half in scoring, the A's are one of seven teams to average fewer than four runs per game.
Singer has proven himself to be capable against even good lineups, though.
Impressively, he held both Arizona and Toronto to one run per game while giving up five hits to the Diamondbacks and two to Toronto.
Those teams rank well ahead of Oakland's lineup.
Singer's Arsenal
Singer relies primarily on two pitches.
He throws his sinker 53.3 percent of the time.
His second-favorite pitch is his slider, which he throws with 36.4 percent frequency.
Singer's sinker has pretty good spin and movement, which can make it difficult for batters to hit.
Both his sinker and his slider often find the edges of the strike zone, as evident in heat maps, which makes it harder for batters to make good contact.
His slider benefits from having even more spin, which also makes it a strong whiff pitch for him.
I like him to thrive today, especially by allowing fewer than six hits, because Oakland ranks dead-last in slugging .278 against the sinker and slider from righties.
Plus, the A batters who have hit him well are injured.
Best Bet: Singer under 5.5 hits at +104 with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Blake Snell's Season Results
San Diego starter Blake Snell's season thus far reflects the importance of matchup.
His high ERA might scare away potential backers, but it is important to note that his ERA is as high as it is primarily because of two starts, both of which took place on the road.
One, he allowed four earned runs in 3.2 innings in Atlanta.
Two, his ERA is so high to a lesser extent because he also struggled against the Mets.
These two games show the importance of matchup because it can't be a coincidence that teams that hit his pitches from lefties well are the ones that are thriving against him.
Snell's Arsenal
To explain more in detail, Snell is a lefty who relies on four pitches.
He throws primarily a fastball but also mixes in extensively a curveball, slider, and change-up.
The Braves and Mets both rank top-10 in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
However, not only do the Dodgers match up poorly against Snell, but they also have to face him in San Diego.
To be exact, they rank 21stin slugging .385 against his pitches from lefties.
Snell's history against them is a product of his matchup advantage.
He yields a 2.50 ERA against them in nine starts, in which he allows under one hit per inning.
Snell's high walk rate and plate-nibbling tendencies -- heat maps show that he loves to attack the edges of the strike zone -- also show that he would rather concede walks than hits.
Best Bet: Blake Snell under 3.5 hits at +119 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Reid Detmers' Development
In terms of achieving strikeouts, Angels' starter Reid Detmers might not seem to have the best history against the Rangers.
But the negative part of Detmers' history of striking out Texas batters is too distant in the past to be relevant anymore.
Specifically, he didn't do a good job of striking out Rangers' batters in the first half of last season.
But he was a different pitcher in that half of the season.
Whereas he struck out 7.33 batters per nine innings in the first half of season, he struck out 9.92 batters per nine innings in the second half.
Texas was one of the victims of his improvement.
When he faced the Rangers on July 31, he accrued 12 strikeouts in seven innings.
In the second-half rematch in September in his last start of the season, he struck out nine Rangers' batters in six innings.
This Year
Detmers this year is continuing to improve as a strikeout pitcher.
He is striking out 10.73 batters per nine innings.
Detmers hasn't always exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in individual games this year, because he hasn't lasted that long in outings.
But his stuff is clearly good enough to strike out batters at a high rate.
Plus, Texas ranks well below average in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
So, he will pitch more innings against the Rangers because he matches up well against them.
More innings means more strikeout opportunities, of which he doesn't need many against Texas.
Best Bet: Detmers over 6.5 strikeouts at -105 with Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
- Brady Singer is capable of thriving against good lineups
- The A's have one of baseball's weakest lineups
- Singer will hurt Oakland with his sinker-slider combo
Brady Singer's Season So Far
It might seem undesirable to back Royals' starter Brady Singer given the fact that his ERA is so high.
But let's dismiss unreasonable worries.
His ERA is as high as it is primarily because he was slammed by Atlanta and in Minnesota.
All his high ERA shows, therefore, is that we should not trust him against higher-caliber lineups.
But Oakland's lineup is anything but high-caliber.
Whereas the Twins and the Braves both rank in the upper half in scoring, the A's are one of seven teams to average fewer than four runs per game.
Singer has proven himself to be capable against even good lineups, though.
Impressively, he held both Arizona and Toronto to one run per game while giving up five hits to the Diamondbacks and two to Toronto.
Those teams rank well ahead of Oakland's lineup.
Singer's Arsenal
Singer relies primarily on two pitches.
He throws his sinker 53.3 percent of the time.
His second-favorite pitch is his slider, which he throws with 36.4 percent frequency.
Singer's sinker has pretty good spin and movement, which can make it difficult for batters to hit.
Both his sinker and his slider often find the edges of the strike zone, as evident in heat maps, which makes it harder for batters to make good contact.
His slider benefits from having even more spin, which also makes it a strong whiff pitch for him.
I like him to thrive today, especially by allowing fewer than six hits, because Oakland ranks dead-last in slugging .278 against the sinker and slider from righties.
Plus, the A batters who have hit him well are injured.
Best Bet: Singer under 5.5 hits at +104 with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
- Blake Snell might seem worth staying away from because he is unreliable against teams that match up well against him
- The Dodgers hit his pitches from lefties poorly, however
- Snell would rather walk batters than give up hits to them, for which reason he likes to plate-nibble
Blake Snell's Season Results
San Diego starter Blake Snell's season thus far reflects the importance of matchup.
His high ERA might scare away potential backers, but it is important to note that his ERA is as high as it is primarily because of two starts, both of which took place on the road.
One, he allowed four earned runs in 3.2 innings in Atlanta.
Two, his ERA is so high to a lesser extent because he also struggled against the Mets.
These two games show the importance of matchup because it can't be a coincidence that teams that hit his pitches from lefties well are the ones that are thriving against him.
Snell's Arsenal
To explain more in detail, Snell is a lefty who relies on four pitches.
He throws primarily a fastball but also mixes in extensively a curveball, slider, and change-up.
The Braves and Mets both rank top-10 in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
However, not only do the Dodgers match up poorly against Snell, but they also have to face him in San Diego.
To be exact, they rank 21stin slugging .385 against his pitches from lefties.
Snell's history against them is a product of his matchup advantage.
He yields a 2.50 ERA against them in nine starts, in which he allows under one hit per inning.
Snell's high walk rate and plate-nibbling tendencies -- heat maps show that he loves to attack the edges of the strike zone -- also show that he would rather concede walks than hits.
Best Bet: Blake Snell under 3.5 hits at +119 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
- Reid Detmers developed strong strikeout stuff in the second half of last season
- Texas was a victim of his development
- Detmers is even better at striking out batters this year. Plus, he matches up well against Texas.
Reid Detmers' Development
In terms of achieving strikeouts, Angels' starter Reid Detmers might not seem to have the best history against the Rangers.
But the negative part of Detmers' history of striking out Texas batters is too distant in the past to be relevant anymore.
Specifically, he didn't do a good job of striking out Rangers' batters in the first half of last season.
But he was a different pitcher in that half of the season.
Whereas he struck out 7.33 batters per nine innings in the first half of season, he struck out 9.92 batters per nine innings in the second half.
Texas was one of the victims of his improvement.
When he faced the Rangers on July 31, he accrued 12 strikeouts in seven innings.
In the second-half rematch in September in his last start of the season, he struck out nine Rangers' batters in six innings.
This Year
Detmers this year is continuing to improve as a strikeout pitcher.
He is striking out 10.73 batters per nine innings.
Detmers hasn't always exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in individual games this year, because he hasn't lasted that long in outings.
But his stuff is clearly good enough to strike out batters at a high rate.
Plus, Texas ranks well below average in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
So, he will pitch more innings against the Rangers because he matches up well against them.
More innings means more strikeout opportunities, of which he doesn't need many against Texas.
Best Bet: Detmers over 6.5 strikeouts at -105 with Bovada
