NBA Best Bets for December 21: The Cavaliers Continue Dominating
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Key Trend
The Jazz are worth fading tonight because they are coming off a win.
This is a team that does not know how to string wins together.
Overall, they have won six games.
Every time, they lost the game that directly followed their win.
Three of those losses came by at least 15 points. The last one was a 44-point blowout.
Their closest loss in this situation, against a Sacramento team that doesn't match up particularly well against them, was by four points.
Brooklyn's Matchup Advantage
I really like the Nets tonight because, even if the Jazz weren't in this auto-fade situation, the Nets have strong matchup advantages.
One of those advantages stems from their preference on offense and Utah's deficiencies on defense.
On offense, the Nets primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the sixth-most threes per game.
It is smart of them to focus on attempting three-pointers because they are one of the best teams at converting those attempts.
Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith both convert over 43 percent of their three-point attempts, but other high-volume shooters on that team are also efficient from behind the arc.
They match up well against a Utah team that allows the second-most three-pointers per game.
Detailing Utah's Poor Perimeter Defense
Utah concedes the second-most wide-open three-point attempts and is likewise one of the poorer teams at limiting open three-point attempts.
The Jazz, moreover, allow the second-most three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that Utah is terrible both at contesting three-point attempts and at running teams off the three-point line.
Opposing offenses easily procure a lot of favorable three-point attempts when they play Utah. Brooklyn is one team that is especially built to take advantage.
Utah Can't Keep Pace
The Nets are a must-play when they're expected to score a ton of points — as in, over 120 — they have only a short spread to cover, and they face a team like Utah that struggles on offense.
Utah ranks well in the bottom half in points per game and in field goal percentage.
This team is not the type of team that Brooklyn's defense will struggle against.
Whereas the Nets gave up a lot of points to teams like Giannis-led Milwaukee and Ja Morant-led Memphis, they most recently held a team like Toronto to 94 points.
Like Toronto, Utah's offense lacks star scorers.
Brooklyn is well-stocked with good perimeter defenders, such as Cameron Johnson, and with strong rim protectors, such as Nic Claxton.
Strong reports of both players' abilities on defense have been composed and are easy to find.
These well-reputed defenders can easily limit a low-talent offense.
Takeaway
Even if the Jazz weren't in an auto-fade spot following their most recent win, Brooklyn must be expected to score with ease against a Utah defense that is terrible at guarding the perimeter.
The Jazz, with their lack of star power and scoring talent, will fail to keep pace.
Whereas the Nets can reach 120 points, the Jazz will struggle to reach 100.
Best Bet: Nets -2.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
The Spread
Cleveland might seem like it is favored by a daunting number of points.
But most recent history indicates that the Cavaliers are on a roll that merits respect.
They enter tonight's game having won their last two contests by over 20 points.
On December 16, they won at Brooklyn by 29. Most recently, on Friday they beat the Bucks by 23.
Cleveland Wants to Attack the Rim
On offense, the Cavaliers primarily want to score at the basket.
They feature two big men, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who are highly efficient around the basket.
Mobley converts 68.2 percent of his field goals within five feet of the basket. Allen converts 74.2 percent of his field goals in this space.
But the Cavaliers also feature guards who like to attack the basket and are good at doing so.
Especially Donovan Mitchell poses a threat inside with his driving ability.
Overall, Cleveland both attempts and makes field goals within five feet of the basket at the tenth-highest rate.
This is the most efficient three-point shooting team, which forces defenses to respect its shooting ability and which makes it easier for it to succeed inside.
Philadelphia's Lack of Rim Protection
With its propensity for scoring at the basket, Cleveland will match up well against a team that lacks rim protectors.
Philadelphia's star center, Joel Embiid, remains injured.
Without him, the 76ers lack quality rim protection.
Overall, they allow the second-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket and the fifth-most field goals within this space.
Philadelphia's Deficient Offense
The 76ers also miss Embiid's offense. He is a super strong, physical, and reliable inside scorer who could have challenged Cleveland's rim protectors.
Mobley and Allen are very athletic, mobile, and good on defense.
They help Cleveland allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Without Embiid, Philadelphia is going to struggle to score inside.
But the 76ers' offense is deficient also because they lack shooters.
Currently, they are one of four teams to convert less than 33 percent of its three-point attempts.
Takeaway
Cleveland will amass points via its dominance inside and its typically efficient three-point shooting.
Philadelphia lacks the star power, or even just the solid talent, either to contain Cleveland's scorers or to keep pace on offense.
For the above reasons, expect sizzling Cleveland to continue dominating.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -11 at -105 with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Key Trend
The Jazz are worth fading tonight because they are coming off a win.
This is a team that does not know how to string wins together.
Overall, they have won six games.
Every time, they lost the game that directly followed their win.
Three of those losses came by at least 15 points. The last one was a 44-point blowout.
Their closest loss in this situation, against a Sacramento team that doesn't match up particularly well against them, was by four points.
Brooklyn's Matchup Advantage
I really like the Nets tonight because, even if the Jazz weren't in this auto-fade situation, the Nets have strong matchup advantages.
One of those advantages stems from their preference on offense and Utah's deficiencies on defense.
On offense, the Nets primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the sixth-most threes per game.
It is smart of them to focus on attempting three-pointers because they are one of the best teams at converting those attempts.
Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith both convert over 43 percent of their three-point attempts, but other high-volume shooters on that team are also efficient from behind the arc.
They match up well against a Utah team that allows the second-most three-pointers per game.
Detailing Utah's Poor Perimeter Defense
Utah concedes the second-most wide-open three-point attempts and is likewise one of the poorer teams at limiting open three-point attempts.
The Jazz, moreover, allow the second-most three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that Utah is terrible both at contesting three-point attempts and at running teams off the three-point line.
Opposing offenses easily procure a lot of favorable three-point attempts when they play Utah. Brooklyn is one team that is especially built to take advantage.
Utah Can't Keep Pace
The Nets are a must-play when they're expected to score a ton of points — as in, over 120 — they have only a short spread to cover, and they face a team like Utah that struggles on offense.
Utah ranks well in the bottom half in points per game and in field goal percentage.
This team is not the type of team that Brooklyn's defense will struggle against.
Whereas the Nets gave up a lot of points to teams like Giannis-led Milwaukee and Ja Morant-led Memphis, they most recently held a team like Toronto to 94 points.
Like Toronto, Utah's offense lacks star scorers.
Brooklyn is well-stocked with good perimeter defenders, such as Cameron Johnson, and with strong rim protectors, such as Nic Claxton.
Strong reports of both players' abilities on defense have been composed and are easy to find.
These well-reputed defenders can easily limit a low-talent offense.
Takeaway
Even if the Jazz weren't in an auto-fade spot following their most recent win, Brooklyn must be expected to score with ease against a Utah defense that is terrible at guarding the perimeter.
The Jazz, with their lack of star power and scoring talent, will fail to keep pace.
Whereas the Nets can reach 120 points, the Jazz will struggle to reach 100.
Best Bet: Nets -2.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
The Spread
Cleveland might seem like it is favored by a daunting number of points.
But most recent history indicates that the Cavaliers are on a roll that merits respect.
They enter tonight's game having won their last two contests by over 20 points.
On December 16, they won at Brooklyn by 29. Most recently, on Friday they beat the Bucks by 23.
Cleveland Wants to Attack the Rim
On offense, the Cavaliers primarily want to score at the basket.
They feature two big men, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who are highly efficient around the basket.
Mobley converts 68.2 percent of his field goals within five feet of the basket. Allen converts 74.2 percent of his field goals in this space.
But the Cavaliers also feature guards who like to attack the basket and are good at doing so.
Especially Donovan Mitchell poses a threat inside with his driving ability.
Overall, Cleveland both attempts and makes field goals within five feet of the basket at the tenth-highest rate.
This is the most efficient three-point shooting team, which forces defenses to respect its shooting ability and which makes it easier for it to succeed inside.
Philadelphia's Lack of Rim Protection
With its propensity for scoring at the basket, Cleveland will match up well against a team that lacks rim protectors.
Philadelphia's star center, Joel Embiid, remains injured.
Without him, the 76ers lack quality rim protection.
Overall, they allow the second-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket and the fifth-most field goals within this space.
Philadelphia's Deficient Offense
The 76ers also miss Embiid's offense. He is a super strong, physical, and reliable inside scorer who could have challenged Cleveland's rim protectors.
Mobley and Allen are very athletic, mobile, and good on defense.
They help Cleveland allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Without Embiid, Philadelphia is going to struggle to score inside.
But the 76ers' offense is deficient also because they lack shooters.
Currently, they are one of four teams to convert less than 33 percent of its three-point attempts.
Takeaway
Cleveland will amass points via its dominance inside and its typically efficient three-point shooting.
Philadelphia lacks the star power, or even just the solid talent, either to contain Cleveland's scorers or to keep pace on offense.
For the above reasons, expect sizzling Cleveland to continue dominating.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -11 at -105 with BetOnline
