NBA Cup Semifinals Best Bets: The Favorites Get Revenge
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Revenge Trend
While the Hawks and Bucks are playing today in an NBA Cup game, it remains a fact that they have played each other earlier this season.
On December 4, Milwaukee lost by 15 to Atlanta.
Milwaukee has proven able to get revenge in rematches against non-elite teams.
While the Bucks lost consecutive times to Boston and Cleveland, they got revenge against every other team that they lost to.
On October 25, they lost by 11 to Chicago. In the rematch on November 20, they won by 16. This is a 27-point swing from one game to the next.
Likewise, on October 27, they lost by 13 to Brooklyn. When they played Brooklyn again on December 5, they won by eight. The rematch thus saw an 18-point swing in Milwaukee's favor.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
The Bucks' ability to protect the rim will be a key factor for Milwaukee's revenge.
Center Brook Lopez ably functions as, essentially, the quarterback of his defense.
With his awareness of what the opposing offense is doing, Lopez will direct his teammates.
He excels at contesting opposing shot attempts and limiting opposing field goal efficiency by picking up potential scorers as they progress toward the rim and by executing traditional drop coverage.
Milwaukee's ongoing propensity for drop coverage exhibits its dedication to protecting the rim.
Hence, the Bucks are one of the best teams at limiting field goals made within five feet of the basket. They allow the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in this space.
Why This Matters
Milwaukee's excellent ability to defend the basket creates a negative outlook for Atlanta's offense.
The Hawks are uniquely determined to score at the basket.
They are rather disinclined to attempt three-pointers and lack effective three-point shooters. Currently, Atlanta ranks 24th in three-point percentage.
Instead, the Hawks attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Atlanta will be immensely uncomfortable on offense against a team like Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Will Thrive on Offense
The Bucks feature a balanced group of scorers. Giannis is the annual MVP candidate who is immensely difficult for defenses to contain as he attacks the rim.
Atlanta certainly lacks a Joel Embiid or another physically super strong and elite rim protector who can match up with him physically.
Khris Middleton is the shooting guard who is well-known for his prominence as a mid-range scorer.
Damian Lillard is the point guard who thrives as a high-volume and efficient three-point shooter.
Two games ago, Atlanta gave up 141 points to a Denver team that had just lost to Washington, showing what a team laden with capable scorers can achieve when it is uniquely motivated, as the Bucks are in their revenge spot, which has proven to be significant for them.
Best Bet: Bucks -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Oklahoma City's Revenge Spot
The Thunder don't lose often, but when they do, they are sure to get revenge.
They have taken advantage of every opportunity for revenge that they have encountered thus far.
On November 10, OKC lost by 11 at home to Golden State.
In the rematch on November 27, the Thunder won by four on the road.
Likewise, the Thunder on Tuesday beat the Mavericks by 14 after losing to them by two on November 17.
The point swings in their favor have been immense in both rematches.
Houston's Three-Point Shooting Woes
Houston's win over OKC featured an unexpectedly high point total from the Rockets.
High-volume shooter Fred VanVleet carried them in that matchup with a 5-for-9 performance from behind the arc.
VanVleet enters this game in cold shooting form, however.
In his last three games, he is a combined 6-for-29 from behind the arc.
Overall, Houston is anyhow a poor shooting team. The Rockets rank 27th in three-point percentage.
Outlook for Houston's Offense
Justifiably averse to attempting three-pointers, the Rockets primarily endeavor to score at the basket.
They attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their inclination to score in this space creates a negative outlook for their offense given the way in which Oklahoma City operates defensively.
OKC is uniquely determined to protect the rim.
The Thunder employ an aggressive help defense whereby different defenders will work together to deter ball-handlers from driving to the basket.
Isaiah Hartenstein makes OKC's rim-protecting task especially easy.
Despite the seven-footer's great size and length, he moves exceptionally well. Video footage displays his superb awareness of what the offense is doing as well as his ability to react in a prompt manner.
Largely but by no means exclusively thanks to him, the Thunder rank third at limiting opposing field goals made within five feet of the basket and first at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
OKC's Sizzling Offense
The Thunder enter this game in excellent scoring form.
They have scored at least 118 points in each of their last four games, which has allowed them to win all of those games by at least ten points.
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a high-scoring machine who actively gets his teammates involved in their offense, as evident in the high assist total that regularly complements his typical 30-point output.
With the Thunder producing at least 120 points tonight, as they prolong their high-caliber scoring form, Houston will fail to limit its deficit in this game to a single-digit total.
Best Bet: Thunder -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Revenge Trend
While the Hawks and Bucks are playing today in an NBA Cup game, it remains a fact that they have played each other earlier this season.
On December 4, Milwaukee lost by 15 to Atlanta.
Milwaukee has proven able to get revenge in rematches against non-elite teams.
While the Bucks lost consecutive times to Boston and Cleveland, they got revenge against every other team that they lost to.
On October 25, they lost by 11 to Chicago. In the rematch on November 20, they won by 16. This is a 27-point swing from one game to the next.
Likewise, on October 27, they lost by 13 to Brooklyn. When they played Brooklyn again on December 5, they won by eight. The rematch thus saw an 18-point swing in Milwaukee's favor.
Milwaukee's Rim Protection
The Bucks' ability to protect the rim will be a key factor for Milwaukee's revenge.
Center Brook Lopez ably functions as, essentially, the quarterback of his defense.
With his awareness of what the opposing offense is doing, Lopez will direct his teammates.
He excels at contesting opposing shot attempts and limiting opposing field goal efficiency by picking up potential scorers as they progress toward the rim and by executing traditional drop coverage.
Milwaukee's ongoing propensity for drop coverage exhibits its dedication to protecting the rim.
Hence, the Bucks are one of the best teams at limiting field goals made within five feet of the basket. They allow the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in this space.
Why This Matters
Milwaukee's excellent ability to defend the basket creates a negative outlook for Atlanta's offense.
The Hawks are uniquely determined to score at the basket.
They are rather disinclined to attempt three-pointers and lack effective three-point shooters. Currently, Atlanta ranks 24th in three-point percentage.
Instead, the Hawks attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Atlanta will be immensely uncomfortable on offense against a team like Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Will Thrive on Offense
The Bucks feature a balanced group of scorers. Giannis is the annual MVP candidate who is immensely difficult for defenses to contain as he attacks the rim.
Atlanta certainly lacks a Joel Embiid or another physically super strong and elite rim protector who can match up with him physically.
Khris Middleton is the shooting guard who is well-known for his prominence as a mid-range scorer.
Damian Lillard is the point guard who thrives as a high-volume and efficient three-point shooter.
Two games ago, Atlanta gave up 141 points to a Denver team that had just lost to Washington, showing what a team laden with capable scorers can achieve when it is uniquely motivated, as the Bucks are in their revenge spot, which has proven to be significant for them.
Best Bet: Bucks -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Oklahoma City's Revenge Spot
The Thunder don't lose often, but when they do, they are sure to get revenge.
They have taken advantage of every opportunity for revenge that they have encountered thus far.
On November 10, OKC lost by 11 at home to Golden State.
In the rematch on November 27, the Thunder won by four on the road.
Likewise, the Thunder on Tuesday beat the Mavericks by 14 after losing to them by two on November 17.
The point swings in their favor have been immense in both rematches.
Houston's Three-Point Shooting Woes
Houston's win over OKC featured an unexpectedly high point total from the Rockets.
High-volume shooter Fred VanVleet carried them in that matchup with a 5-for-9 performance from behind the arc.
VanVleet enters this game in cold shooting form, however.
In his last three games, he is a combined 6-for-29 from behind the arc.
Overall, Houston is anyhow a poor shooting team. The Rockets rank 27th in three-point percentage.
Outlook for Houston's Offense
Justifiably averse to attempting three-pointers, the Rockets primarily endeavor to score at the basket.
They attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their inclination to score in this space creates a negative outlook for their offense given the way in which Oklahoma City operates defensively.
OKC is uniquely determined to protect the rim.
The Thunder employ an aggressive help defense whereby different defenders will work together to deter ball-handlers from driving to the basket.
Isaiah Hartenstein makes OKC's rim-protecting task especially easy.
Despite the seven-footer's great size and length, he moves exceptionally well. Video footage displays his superb awareness of what the offense is doing as well as his ability to react in a prompt manner.
Largely but by no means exclusively thanks to him, the Thunder rank third at limiting opposing field goals made within five feet of the basket and first at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
OKC's Sizzling Offense
The Thunder enter this game in excellent scoring form.
They have scored at least 118 points in each of their last four games, which has allowed them to win all of those games by at least ten points.
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a high-scoring machine who actively gets his teammates involved in their offense, as evident in the high assist total that regularly complements his typical 30-point output.
With the Thunder producing at least 120 points tonight, as they prolong their high-caliber scoring form, Houston will fail to limit its deficit in this game to a single-digit total.
Best Bet: Thunder -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
