NBA Best Bets for November 16: The Celtics Should Fear the Raptors
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Saturday, November 16, at 3 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
The Odds
Milwaukee is favored in this game despite the fact that it is playing on the road.
Oddsmakers clearly have respect for the Bucks.
With the Bucks losing more than winning and with them barely covering more than a third of their games, however, we have to ask about how much respect we, as bettors, should have for them.
They are clearly not the Milwaukee that we are used to.
In terms of both offensive rating and defensive rating, they rank in the bottom half in the NBA.
Missing Dame Lillard
When Milwaukee traded stalwart defender Jrue Holiday, it got a terrific scorer in return.
The Bucks are worse off defensively without Holiday, but now they are also worse off offensively because Lillard is still out with a concussion.
It is true that Milwaukee scored a respectable-looking total of 111 points in regulation — and 127 points including overtime — in its last game.
I would be impressed by the Bucks' offense if the scoring were balanced, if a number of different players contributed significantly to that scoring total.
However, they relied on Giannis scoring an absurd 59 points.
Giannis is a superstar, and superstars do that from time to time.
But they tend not to do it in two consecutive games.
For example, when Giannis dropped 43 points on November 10, he scored a more human 23 points on November 12.
Expect Giannis to fall back to Earth today, especially since he is nursing a knee injury that leaves him with an injury designation for tonight's game.
Giannis and Lillard are both extremely significant to Milwaukee's offense because they, by an absurd margin, lead the team in scoring.
No other Bucks player averages even 13 points per game.
Bobby Portis is the team's third-leading scorer with all of 12.9 points per game.
Milwaukee's Vulnerable Defense
Milwaukee won its first game without Lillard because it held Toronto to 85 points, not because its offense came to life without their versatile scoring star.
The Raptors happened to match up poorly with the Bucks in that they love to attack the rim and protecting the rim is Milwaukee's strength.
Today, the Bucks' defense is not lucky in terms of the matchup.
This is because they face a team, in Charlotte, that, instead of attacking the rim, primarily wants to shoot threes.
Charlotte's Outlook From Deep
The Hornets attempt the second-most three-pointers per game.
It's smart of them to shoot a lot of threes because they're good at making them, especially at home where their three-point conversion rate is 37 percent.
Look out, among others, for LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann, both of whom shoot over 37 percent from deep.
Cody Martin, Seth Curry, and Josh Green also shoot over 40 percent from deep.
Charlotte has even more weapons with which to attack a Milwaukee defense that allows the third-most three-pointers per game.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's offense will suffer without Lillard, and Giannis won't be a superhero for a second straight game to bail them out.
The Bucks' defense won't come to the rescue, either, because they are not facing another team that is hugely reliant on attacking the rim.
Charlotte will thrive from behind the arc and, primarily in this way, run away from the once-mighty Bucks.
Best Bet: Hornets +3.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston Misses Kristaps Porzingis
Without rim protector Kristaps Porzingis, Boston's defense is not nearly as effective as it would be without him.
Teams are able to attack the rim when they face Boston and, primarily in this way, are able to generate surprising results.
On Tuesday, for example, the Hawks upset Boston as double-digit underdogs. They even missed star point guard Trae Young.
They shocked Boston by using their rim-attacking prowess to score 117 points and by holding the Celtics to a reasonable total (116 points).
Overall, Boston allows the eighth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Toronto's Rim-Attacking Offense
Toronto matches up superbly against Boston because it, more than literally every other team, loves to attack the rim.
The Raptors attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Among others, look out for guys like Jakob Pöltl, Ochai Agbaji, and RJ Barrett to thrive today.
Barrett and Agbaji, for example, are well-known as slashers who excel at getting to the basket.
Toronto's Perimeter Defense
Perimeter defense matters the most when facing the Celtics because they love to shoot threes.
They attempt, by a tremendous margin, the most threes per game. Boston is the only team to attempt at least 45 three-pointers per game — in fact, Boston attempts 50.4 of them per game.
The Celtics match up poorly against a Raptors defense has built itself to be strong at defending the perimeter by acquiring lengthy players.
Shooting guard Gradey Dick and power forward Barrett are both 6'6. Small forward Agbaji is 6'5.
Point guard Davion Mitchell is small, but, dating to his college days, he has been well-known as a feisty and physical perimeter defender who is great at on-ball defending.
With this group of defenders, Toronto is one of the best teams at limiting both open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Its successful determination to contest three-point looks will inhibit Boston from procuring the favorable three-point shooting opportunities that its offense so heavily relies on.
Takeaway
The Raptors are giant underdogs in this game because oddsmakers are not accounting for matchup details.
Toronto has an excellent matchup advantage today on both offense and defense: it will score at will by exploiting Boston's rim protection, and it will stifle the Celtics' three-point attack.
Best Bet: Raptors +16.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Saturday, November 16, at 3 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
The Odds
Milwaukee is favored in this game despite the fact that it is playing on the road.
Oddsmakers clearly have respect for the Bucks.
With the Bucks losing more than winning and with them barely covering more than a third of their games, however, we have to ask about how much respect we, as bettors, should have for them.
They are clearly not the Milwaukee that we are used to.
In terms of both offensive rating and defensive rating, they rank in the bottom half in the NBA.
Missing Dame Lillard
When Milwaukee traded stalwart defender Jrue Holiday, it got a terrific scorer in return.
The Bucks are worse off defensively without Holiday, but now they are also worse off offensively because Lillard is still out with a concussion.
It is true that Milwaukee scored a respectable-looking total of 111 points in regulation — and 127 points including overtime — in its last game.
I would be impressed by the Bucks' offense if the scoring were balanced, if a number of different players contributed significantly to that scoring total.
However, they relied on Giannis scoring an absurd 59 points.
Giannis is a superstar, and superstars do that from time to time.
But they tend not to do it in two consecutive games.
For example, when Giannis dropped 43 points on November 10, he scored a more human 23 points on November 12.
Expect Giannis to fall back to Earth today, especially since he is nursing a knee injury that leaves him with an injury designation for tonight's game.
Giannis and Lillard are both extremely significant to Milwaukee's offense because they, by an absurd margin, lead the team in scoring.
No other Bucks player averages even 13 points per game.
Bobby Portis is the team's third-leading scorer with all of 12.9 points per game.
Milwaukee's Vulnerable Defense
Milwaukee won its first game without Lillard because it held Toronto to 85 points, not because its offense came to life without their versatile scoring star.
The Raptors happened to match up poorly with the Bucks in that they love to attack the rim and protecting the rim is Milwaukee's strength.
Today, the Bucks' defense is not lucky in terms of the matchup.
This is because they face a team, in Charlotte, that, instead of attacking the rim, primarily wants to shoot threes.
Charlotte's Outlook From Deep
The Hornets attempt the second-most three-pointers per game.
It's smart of them to shoot a lot of threes because they're good at making them, especially at home where their three-point conversion rate is 37 percent.
Look out, among others, for LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann, both of whom shoot over 37 percent from deep.
Cody Martin, Seth Curry, and Josh Green also shoot over 40 percent from deep.
Charlotte has even more weapons with which to attack a Milwaukee defense that allows the third-most three-pointers per game.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's offense will suffer without Lillard, and Giannis won't be a superhero for a second straight game to bail them out.
The Bucks' defense won't come to the rescue, either, because they are not facing another team that is hugely reliant on attacking the rim.
Charlotte will thrive from behind the arc and, primarily in this way, run away from the once-mighty Bucks.
Best Bet: Hornets +3.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston Misses Kristaps Porzingis
Without rim protector Kristaps Porzingis, Boston's defense is not nearly as effective as it would be without him.
Teams are able to attack the rim when they face Boston and, primarily in this way, are able to generate surprising results.
On Tuesday, for example, the Hawks upset Boston as double-digit underdogs. They even missed star point guard Trae Young.
They shocked Boston by using their rim-attacking prowess to score 117 points and by holding the Celtics to a reasonable total (116 points).
Overall, Boston allows the eighth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Toronto's Rim-Attacking Offense
Toronto matches up superbly against Boston because it, more than literally every other team, loves to attack the rim.
The Raptors attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Among others, look out for guys like Jakob Pöltl, Ochai Agbaji, and RJ Barrett to thrive today.
Barrett and Agbaji, for example, are well-known as slashers who excel at getting to the basket.
Toronto's Perimeter Defense
Perimeter defense matters the most when facing the Celtics because they love to shoot threes.
They attempt, by a tremendous margin, the most threes per game. Boston is the only team to attempt at least 45 three-pointers per game — in fact, Boston attempts 50.4 of them per game.
The Celtics match up poorly against a Raptors defense has built itself to be strong at defending the perimeter by acquiring lengthy players.
Shooting guard Gradey Dick and power forward Barrett are both 6'6. Small forward Agbaji is 6'5.
Point guard Davion Mitchell is small, but, dating to his college days, he has been well-known as a feisty and physical perimeter defender who is great at on-ball defending.
With this group of defenders, Toronto is one of the best teams at limiting both open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Its successful determination to contest three-point looks will inhibit Boston from procuring the favorable three-point shooting opportunities that its offense so heavily relies on.
Takeaway
The Raptors are giant underdogs in this game because oddsmakers are not accounting for matchup details.
Toronto has an excellent matchup advantage today on both offense and defense: it will score at will by exploiting Boston's rim protection, and it will stifle the Celtics' three-point attack.
Best Bet: Raptors +16.5 at -115 with BetOnline
