NBA Best Bets for November 9: Close The Evening With the Clippers
Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
The Total
As of Saturday morning, oddsmakers have the total for this game posted at 239. Is this too high?
Just by looking at the recent scores, you can tell that the total is not too high.
Atlanta's last game, against Detroit, totaled 143 points.
The Hawks have scored over 120 points in three of their last four games. The one exception came against defending champion Boston, which has a characteristically stout defense.
Chicago's defense has recently been horrible, so it feels certain based on this recent trend that Atlanta will blow past 120 points.
Specifically, the Bulls have allowed 119 or more points in each of their last four games.
They even allowed 135 points to lowly Utah, which ranks dead-last in points per game.
Atlanta also has a defense that allows low-quality offenses to thrive, as when it allowed 120 or more points three times to Charlotte and Washington.
These two defenses, Atlanta's and Chicago's, are truly bad. They are two of the NBA's worst.
Atlanta's Poor Perimeter Defense
What will ensure that both teams score 120 or more points tonight is that Chicago's offense matches up well against Atlanta's defense.
On offense, the Bulls want to shoot three-pointers. They attempt the third-most per game, and they are good at making them. They rank ninth in three-point percentage.
The Hawks' defense was uniquely bad last season. It did add Dyson Daniels to try to improve things, but he is just one player.
Atlanta still relies on Trae Young, because of his prowess as a scorer and distributor, who is too small to be an effective NBA defender. The Hawks likewise rely on other poor defenders.
Overall, they allow the fifth-most open three-point attempts and the third-most wide-open ones. They also allow the most three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that they are awful at contesting opposing three-pointers and at running opposing shooters off the three-point line.
Chicago is loaded with scorers who are shooting well — over 39 percent — from deep this season. These include Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and Josh Giddey.
Two-time All-Star selection Zach LaVine could provide an extra boost to the offense tonight. He is listed as a game-time decision with his thigh injury.
Takeaway
Atlanta will prolong Chicago's tendency to give up 119 or more points. The Bulls are the worst team at limiting field goal efficiency at the basket, but they are also terrible at limiting good three-point shooting opportunities.
The Bulls allowed 119 points when their offense was too impotent to push their opponent, otherwise they are allowing 120 or more points in every game.
Their offense will be dangerous tonight given their determination to shoot threes and Atlanta's poor perimeter defense.
Best Bet: Over 239 at -110 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Toronto's One-Dimensional Offense
Toronto's offense is allergic to attempting three-pointers.
To their credit, it is a good thing for the Raptors to eschew attempting threes. They are terrible at making them.
Instead of shooting threes, they want to get to the basket.
By a clear margin, they attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Their center, Jakob Poeltl, tries to be an active scorer around the basket.
Point guard Immanuel Quickley also likes to get to the basket. He'll be a game-time decision, though, with his pelvis injury, so he likely wouldn't be in his best form if he played.
R.J. Barrett and Ochai Agbaji are two other Raptors players who prioritize scoring at the basket.
Barrett, like Quickley and Quickley's backup Davion Mitchell, primarily wants to drive to the basket.
Clippers' Rim Protection
I like the Clippers' defense because it is one of the best teams at protecting the basket.
Los Angeles allows the third-fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
Opposing offenses struggle to get to the basket in the first place — Los Angeles allows the second-fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket — and opposing offenses are likewise inefficient when they do attempt a shot at the basket.
One Clippers defender worth watching out for is Derrick Jones Jr. He is an effective perimeter defender, but he'll also help guard the rim effectively, too.
He didn't play enough last year to be eligible for an All-NBA Defensive Team, but he is well-known as a good defender.
Guys like him are one of many Clippers defenders who can guard players effectively one-on-one.
The one-on-one guarding ability of Clippers on-ball defenders lightens the load for rim protector Ivica Zubac, who is one of the NBA's best at his job. He excels at limiting field goal efficiency around the basket.
Clippers Offense Will Thrive Tonight
Whereas the Raptors will struggle to be comfortable on offense, the Clippers will find scoring easy.
Toronto's defense just does not make opposing offenses uncomfortable.
The Raptors have allowed 120 or more points in regulation in each of their last five games.
In two of those games, they allowed over 130 points, including to lowly Charlotte.
Norman Powell is having the best season of his career for the Clippers. He's developing his versatility as a scorer, which positions him as a threat both inside and outside the arc.
Of course, the entire offense benefits from star James Harden's distribution.
A team that, like the Clippers, is great at making threes is especially dangerous with the second-chance scoring opportunities afforded it by Zubac's rebounding.
Takeaway
The Raptors want to score inside, but they'll struggle at the basket against the Clippers' combination of strong one-on-one defenders and excellent rim protection.
Los Angeles, on offense, will have an easy time against Toronto's consistently awful defense.
Best Bet: Clippers -7 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
The Total
As of Saturday morning, oddsmakers have the total for this game posted at 239. Is this too high?
Just by looking at the recent scores, you can tell that the total is not too high.
Atlanta's last game, against Detroit, totaled 143 points.
The Hawks have scored over 120 points in three of their last four games. The one exception came against defending champion Boston, which has a characteristically stout defense.
Chicago's defense has recently been horrible, so it feels certain based on this recent trend that Atlanta will blow past 120 points.
Specifically, the Bulls have allowed 119 or more points in each of their last four games.
They even allowed 135 points to lowly Utah, which ranks dead-last in points per game.
Atlanta also has a defense that allows low-quality offenses to thrive, as when it allowed 120 or more points three times to Charlotte and Washington.
These two defenses, Atlanta's and Chicago's, are truly bad. They are two of the NBA's worst.
Atlanta's Poor Perimeter Defense
What will ensure that both teams score 120 or more points tonight is that Chicago's offense matches up well against Atlanta's defense.
On offense, the Bulls want to shoot three-pointers. They attempt the third-most per game, and they are good at making them. They rank ninth in three-point percentage.
The Hawks' defense was uniquely bad last season. It did add Dyson Daniels to try to improve things, but he is just one player.
Atlanta still relies on Trae Young, because of his prowess as a scorer and distributor, who is too small to be an effective NBA defender. The Hawks likewise rely on other poor defenders.
Overall, they allow the fifth-most open three-point attempts and the third-most wide-open ones. They also allow the most three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that they are awful at contesting opposing three-pointers and at running opposing shooters off the three-point line.
Chicago is loaded with scorers who are shooting well — over 39 percent — from deep this season. These include Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and Josh Giddey.
Two-time All-Star selection Zach LaVine could provide an extra boost to the offense tonight. He is listed as a game-time decision with his thigh injury.
Takeaway
Atlanta will prolong Chicago's tendency to give up 119 or more points. The Bulls are the worst team at limiting field goal efficiency at the basket, but they are also terrible at limiting good three-point shooting opportunities.
The Bulls allowed 119 points when their offense was too impotent to push their opponent, otherwise they are allowing 120 or more points in every game.
Their offense will be dangerous tonight given their determination to shoot threes and Atlanta's poor perimeter defense.
Best Bet: Over 239 at -110 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome
Toronto's One-Dimensional Offense
Toronto's offense is allergic to attempting three-pointers.
To their credit, it is a good thing for the Raptors to eschew attempting threes. They are terrible at making them.
Instead of shooting threes, they want to get to the basket.
By a clear margin, they attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Their center, Jakob Poeltl, tries to be an active scorer around the basket.
Point guard Immanuel Quickley also likes to get to the basket. He'll be a game-time decision, though, with his pelvis injury, so he likely wouldn't be in his best form if he played.
R.J. Barrett and Ochai Agbaji are two other Raptors players who prioritize scoring at the basket.
Barrett, like Quickley and Quickley's backup Davion Mitchell, primarily wants to drive to the basket.
Clippers' Rim Protection
I like the Clippers' defense because it is one of the best teams at protecting the basket.
Los Angeles allows the third-fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
Opposing offenses struggle to get to the basket in the first place — Los Angeles allows the second-fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket — and opposing offenses are likewise inefficient when they do attempt a shot at the basket.
One Clippers defender worth watching out for is Derrick Jones Jr. He is an effective perimeter defender, but he'll also help guard the rim effectively, too.
He didn't play enough last year to be eligible for an All-NBA Defensive Team, but he is well-known as a good defender.
Guys like him are one of many Clippers defenders who can guard players effectively one-on-one.
The one-on-one guarding ability of Clippers on-ball defenders lightens the load for rim protector Ivica Zubac, who is one of the NBA's best at his job. He excels at limiting field goal efficiency around the basket.
Clippers Offense Will Thrive Tonight
Whereas the Raptors will struggle to be comfortable on offense, the Clippers will find scoring easy.
Toronto's defense just does not make opposing offenses uncomfortable.
The Raptors have allowed 120 or more points in regulation in each of their last five games.
In two of those games, they allowed over 130 points, including to lowly Charlotte.
Norman Powell is having the best season of his career for the Clippers. He's developing his versatility as a scorer, which positions him as a threat both inside and outside the arc.
Of course, the entire offense benefits from star James Harden's distribution.
A team that, like the Clippers, is great at making threes is especially dangerous with the second-chance scoring opportunities afforded it by Zubac's rebounding.
Takeaway
The Raptors want to score inside, but they'll struggle at the basket against the Clippers' combination of strong one-on-one defenders and excellent rim protection.
Los Angeles, on offense, will have an easy time against Toronto's consistently awful defense.
Best Bet: Clippers -7 at -110 with BetOnline
