NBA Best Bets for October 26: Remember The Spurs Tonight
Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Memphis' Poor Defense So Far
My main argument for this game is that I like the Magic because, in Orlando, we're getting the one team in this contest that plays good defense.
So far, Memphis has allowed 124 points to Utah and 128 to Houston.
These results appear particularly alarming when we consider what Memphis' opponents have done elsewhere.
In Utah's other game, the Jazz scored all of 86 points against Golden State.
Similarly, Houston scored 105 points against Charlotte.
Memphis' New Starting Center
Memphis has been criticized for drafting Zach Edey.
To be completely fair, he has displayed his great size and physicality. However, the bad has outweighed the good.
His debut, in which he fouled out after 15 minutes, was particularly bad. Yet he also exhibited similar problems in his second game.
In the Big Ten, physicality reigns supreme. Edey is finding out, though, that, in the NBA, good foot speed and smart positioning are necessary components of a strong defensive outing.
Video footage of his play so far this season shows a defender who often looks lost on defense. He does not know where to position himself in large part because he is struggling to adjust to the speed of the game at the NBA level.
Opposing ball-handlers are using ball-screens and other tactics to expose Edey's rawness on defense.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
There is reportedly a good chance that Jaren Jackson Jr. will return to the starting lineup for Memphis.
This is, on paper, a big deal. In reality, however, we shouldn't expect positive changes right away.
When people speak of chemistry, they often think of offense. But defenders also require strong chemistry with each other, as when they need to communicate on ball-screens, for example.
Edey and JJJ will be playing for the first time because the latter missed all of Memphis' preseason games.
So, not only will JJJ need to shake off his rust, but he'll also need to gain chemistry with Edey.
Magic Length
Because of Orlando's size advantage in this game at the wing positions, tonight's contest reminds me of one against the Pacers last year in which the Magic cruised to victory after amassing 73 first-half points.
Particularly when Indiana's center was drawn away from the basket, Orlando used it size advantage to keep attacking with its wings.
Whereas Marcus Smart for Memphis is 6-3, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Orlando is 6-5.
More glaringly, whereas Desmond Bane for the Grizzlies is 6-5, Orlando's Franz Wagner is 6-10.
Orlando's length will also be valuable on defense.
The Magic use their length to be disruptive and cause turnovers.
Under Jamahl Mosley, they have established a reputation for collecting many steals and deflections. They currently rank eighth at steal rate.
In its last game especially, Memphis' offense proved susceptible to turning the ball over.
Transition Play
Memphis is a team that likes to run and play fast.
Running can help the Magic because lack of shot creation and offensive stagnation in the half-court will sometimes plague them — although the Magic still scored 116 and 118 points in their first two games, respectively.
Fortunately for its outlook tonight, Orlando managed to use its depth last night and to rest its guards late in the game in order to keep their legs fresh.
So, even if the Magic do not manage to make Memphis uncomfortable by slowing the game tempo and playing at their preferred slow pace, they will still be in great shape.
Takeaway
Orlando has the depth to thrive in consecutive games.
Its uniquely strong defense gives it a great advantage tonight, but its offense has also looked terrific so far.
Length and downhill attacking will be instrumental to Orlando's victory tonight.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -112 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, October 26, 2024 at Frost Bank Center
Houston's Lack of Shooting
Last year, the Rockets ranked 23rd in three-point shooting percentage.
While they rank slightly better this year, a two-game sample is meaningless.
They shot relatively well yesterday against Memphis' poor defense.
Their shooting outlook is rather poor today because, due to the known abilities and limitations of their players, one expects them to fall back down to Earth.
In particular, Fred VanVleet shot well beyond himself yesterday, as did fellow Rockets guard Jalen Green, relative to their three-point efficiency all of last season.
Moreover, Memphis likes to run a lot, so Houston's legs will be tired tonight because it had to run a lot yesterday. Tired legs entail bad shooting because one uses one's legs to shoot.
Why This Matters
Houston's poor shooting matters because it means that it lacks the ability to take advantage of San Antonio's key weakness on defense.
Whereas the Mavericks covered against the Spurs because they like to shoot threes and because they shoot well from deep, Houston will fail to cover against the Spurs because their strengths diverge from Dallas'.
The Spurs have great rim protection in the form of All-Defensive First Team selection Victor Wembanyama, so scoring inside is difficult on them, and yet Houston won't score much outside the arc, either.
San Antonio Can Exploit Houston's Defense
People wanted the Rockets to draft, with its first pick, Donovan Clingan.
Clingan is a big man who is known for being elite on defense. People wanted Houston to draft him because they knew that Houston needed a big man who was solid defensively.
The Rockets did not select Clingan and, because they did not prioritize rim protection, remain deficient in their interior defense.
San Antonio ranked eighth in points in the paint per game last year, so expect the Spurs to want to rely on scoring inside.
They have the weapons to thrive inside against a Rockets team that will be much easier to score against than Dallas.
Wembanyama, for example, lives inside. He is normally San Antonio's leading scorer.
Takeaway
Houston lacks the ability to exploit San Antonio's vulnerability on defense, whereas the Spurs can exploit Houston's defense.
Expect the Spurs to win via their superior interior defense and their ability on offense to attack the basket.
Best Bet: Spurs ML at +110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Memphis' Poor Defense So Far
My main argument for this game is that I like the Magic because, in Orlando, we're getting the one team in this contest that plays good defense.
So far, Memphis has allowed 124 points to Utah and 128 to Houston.
These results appear particularly alarming when we consider what Memphis' opponents have done elsewhere.
In Utah's other game, the Jazz scored all of 86 points against Golden State.
Similarly, Houston scored 105 points against Charlotte.
Memphis' New Starting Center
Memphis has been criticized for drafting Zach Edey.
To be completely fair, he has displayed his great size and physicality. However, the bad has outweighed the good.
His debut, in which he fouled out after 15 minutes, was particularly bad. Yet he also exhibited similar problems in his second game.
In the Big Ten, physicality reigns supreme. Edey is finding out, though, that, in the NBA, good foot speed and smart positioning are necessary components of a strong defensive outing.
Video footage of his play so far this season shows a defender who often looks lost on defense. He does not know where to position himself in large part because he is struggling to adjust to the speed of the game at the NBA level.
Opposing ball-handlers are using ball-screens and other tactics to expose Edey's rawness on defense.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
There is reportedly a good chance that Jaren Jackson Jr. will return to the starting lineup for Memphis.
This is, on paper, a big deal. In reality, however, we shouldn't expect positive changes right away.
When people speak of chemistry, they often think of offense. But defenders also require strong chemistry with each other, as when they need to communicate on ball-screens, for example.
Edey and JJJ will be playing for the first time because the latter missed all of Memphis' preseason games.
So, not only will JJJ need to shake off his rust, but he'll also need to gain chemistry with Edey.
Magic Length
Because of Orlando's size advantage in this game at the wing positions, tonight's contest reminds me of one against the Pacers last year in which the Magic cruised to victory after amassing 73 first-half points.
Particularly when Indiana's center was drawn away from the basket, Orlando used it size advantage to keep attacking with its wings.
Whereas Marcus Smart for Memphis is 6-3, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Orlando is 6-5.
More glaringly, whereas Desmond Bane for the Grizzlies is 6-5, Orlando's Franz Wagner is 6-10.
Orlando's length will also be valuable on defense.
The Magic use their length to be disruptive and cause turnovers.
Under Jamahl Mosley, they have established a reputation for collecting many steals and deflections. They currently rank eighth at steal rate.
In its last game especially, Memphis' offense proved susceptible to turning the ball over.
Transition Play
Memphis is a team that likes to run and play fast.
Running can help the Magic because lack of shot creation and offensive stagnation in the half-court will sometimes plague them — although the Magic still scored 116 and 118 points in their first two games, respectively.
Fortunately for its outlook tonight, Orlando managed to use its depth last night and to rest its guards late in the game in order to keep their legs fresh.
So, even if the Magic do not manage to make Memphis uncomfortable by slowing the game tempo and playing at their preferred slow pace, they will still be in great shape.
Takeaway
Orlando has the depth to thrive in consecutive games.
Its uniquely strong defense gives it a great advantage tonight, but its offense has also looked terrific so far.
Length and downhill attacking will be instrumental to Orlando's victory tonight.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -112 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, October 26, 2024 at Frost Bank Center
Houston's Lack of Shooting
Last year, the Rockets ranked 23rd in three-point shooting percentage.
While they rank slightly better this year, a two-game sample is meaningless.
They shot relatively well yesterday against Memphis' poor defense.
Their shooting outlook is rather poor today because, due to the known abilities and limitations of their players, one expects them to fall back down to Earth.
In particular, Fred VanVleet shot well beyond himself yesterday, as did fellow Rockets guard Jalen Green, relative to their three-point efficiency all of last season.
Moreover, Memphis likes to run a lot, so Houston's legs will be tired tonight because it had to run a lot yesterday. Tired legs entail bad shooting because one uses one's legs to shoot.
Why This Matters
Houston's poor shooting matters because it means that it lacks the ability to take advantage of San Antonio's key weakness on defense.
Whereas the Mavericks covered against the Spurs because they like to shoot threes and because they shoot well from deep, Houston will fail to cover against the Spurs because their strengths diverge from Dallas'.
The Spurs have great rim protection in the form of All-Defensive First Team selection Victor Wembanyama, so scoring inside is difficult on them, and yet Houston won't score much outside the arc, either.
San Antonio Can Exploit Houston's Defense
People wanted the Rockets to draft, with its first pick, Donovan Clingan.
Clingan is a big man who is known for being elite on defense. People wanted Houston to draft him because they knew that Houston needed a big man who was solid defensively.
The Rockets did not select Clingan and, because they did not prioritize rim protection, remain deficient in their interior defense.
San Antonio ranked eighth in points in the paint per game last year, so expect the Spurs to want to rely on scoring inside.
They have the weapons to thrive inside against a Rockets team that will be much easier to score against than Dallas.
Wembanyama, for example, lives inside. He is normally San Antonio's leading scorer.
Takeaway
Houston lacks the ability to exploit San Antonio's vulnerability on defense, whereas the Spurs can exploit Houston's defense.
Expect the Spurs to win via their superior interior defense and their ability on offense to attack the basket.
Best Bet: Spurs ML at +110 with BetOnline
