MLB Best Bets for April 20
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Detroit's Starter
Reese Olson starts for the Tigers today.
Olson's ERA is as high as it is (3.86) because he had one bad start, which was on April 8 in Pittsburgh.
An unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) made his performance look worse than it was in reality.
His 3.86 ERA thus masks a very solid 2.96 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how well he is actually performing on the season.
In his other two starts, he shut out the Mets in 5.2 innings in New York and held the Rangers to one run in 6.1 innings in Detroit.
Olson History vs. Twins
Olson is likable today given his history against his opponent today.
Last year, in his first professional season, he held Minnesota to a combined total of one run in 11.1 innings in his first two starts against this team.
Then, he was roughed up because he yielded a .667 BABIP (batting average of balls in pay) despite doing a good job of minimizing hard contact.
This third start against the Twins could have been another good performance in that his FIP was 2.13 when he was forced out of the game in the third inning.
Matchup
Olson throws a fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and curveball.
As a righty, he matches up superbly against the Twins.
They rank dead-last with a .313 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Ober is at a disadvantage because the Tigers' lineup just saw him.
While Ober did well in that start, it is hard for any pitcher to do well twice in a row against the same lineup.
Ober's FIP in rematches, historically speaking, suggests that he will perform worse today, yet he won't have much of a margin of error given Olson's quality and given the quality of Detroit's MLB-leading bullpen.
Best Bet: Tigers ML at +121 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
The Different Versions of Zac Gallen
Arizona starts Zac Gallen today.
Bettors love to trust Gallen, and we get why.
While Gallen deserves his positive reputation, we have to be careful.
There are two basic versions of Gallen.
Gallen at home owns a 2.77 ERA in his career.
This is the version of Gallen that people generally see as the Zac Gallen.
But we don't get this version of Gallen today, because he is on the road.
Away from home, his career ERA is 3.57.
Gallen in San Francisco
Gallen is particularly vulnerable against the Giants.
His overall career ERA against them is 4.13. This ERA rises to 4.31 in Oracle Park.
Look out, among others, for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, and Michael Conforto.
They slug, respectively, .500, .600, and 1.000 in at least seven career at-bats against Gallen.
Kyle Harrison
San Francisco starts Kyle Harrison today.
Harrison's ERA might not look very appetizing, but let's look at why it's this high.
His ERA is so high because he spent the earlier part of his season throwing bad pitches with greater frequency.
In his first start of the season, he threw his slurve eleven times. This pitch is responsible for much of the damage inflicted on him so far.
For example, it yielded a 3.000 slugging rate in that game partly because he gave up a home run with it.
Harrison is more reliable now because he is throwing his slurve less often.
He actually still had a good season-opening game.
In three starts, he's allowed three runs or fewer while lasting six innings in each of them.
One has to expect him to thrive today against an Arizona lineup that history leads us to believe will fall back down to earth with a heavy decline after amassing 17 runs yesterday.
Best Bet: Giants ML at +113 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET in PNC Park
Kutter Crawford's Season So Far
Boston starts Kutter Crawford for this game.
While Crawford has undeniably improved relative to last season, I find that his ongoing success is unsustainable.
It is absurd for someone's ERA to drop as many points as it has – it was 4.04 last season, and it is an unsustainable 0.42 right now.
There is no question that he will struggle in some start. It is only a matter of when.
In terms of velocity, spin rate, and movement, some of his pitches have even declined relative to last year.
The point is that he has not magically morphed into some divine phenom, and his ERA is going to reflect that that some point.
Key Advanced Statistic
Pittsburgh is just the team to hit Crawford hard today.
The key statistic here is xSLG.
Baseball has luck involved in that a batter can fail to get a hit despite doing everything that a better needs to do.
Looking at xSLG, when it is very distinct from a team's slugging rate, creates great opportunities for coming up with a sneaky good bet.
Pittsburgh's seventh-best, .464 xSLG against Crawford's pitches from righties indicates its ability to hit them. One must expect the hits to finally come.
Afternoon is just the time for these hits to come because Pittsburgh is very much a day team.
The Pirates' BA jumps .53 and their slugging rate increases .135 in day games relative to night ones.
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller today.
Keller enter today's game having recently found his form.
He has allowed two runs in both of his last two starts, enduring six innings against Detroit and seven innings in Philadelphia.
Going back to last year, he has been dominant at home, where he has allowed a combined total of three runs in his last four starts, despite facing tough lineups.
Although, while Boston is tough, it repeatedly struggles to follow one good output – which it achieved last night – with another.
Best Bet: Pirates ML at -111 with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Detroit's Starter
Reese Olson starts for the Tigers today.
Olson's ERA is as high as it is (3.86) because he had one bad start, which was on April 8 in Pittsburgh.
An unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) made his performance look worse than it was in reality.
His 3.86 ERA thus masks a very solid 2.96 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how well he is actually performing on the season.
In his other two starts, he shut out the Mets in 5.2 innings in New York and held the Rangers to one run in 6.1 innings in Detroit.
Olson History vs. Twins
Olson is likable today given his history against his opponent today.
Last year, in his first professional season, he held Minnesota to a combined total of one run in 11.1 innings in his first two starts against this team.
Then, he was roughed up because he yielded a .667 BABIP (batting average of balls in pay) despite doing a good job of minimizing hard contact.
This third start against the Twins could have been another good performance in that his FIP was 2.13 when he was forced out of the game in the third inning.
Matchup
Olson throws a fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and curveball.
As a righty, he matches up superbly against the Twins.
They rank dead-last with a .313 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Ober is at a disadvantage because the Tigers' lineup just saw him.
While Ober did well in that start, it is hard for any pitcher to do well twice in a row against the same lineup.
Ober's FIP in rematches, historically speaking, suggests that he will perform worse today, yet he won't have much of a margin of error given Olson's quality and given the quality of Detroit's MLB-leading bullpen.
Best Bet: Tigers ML at +121 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
The Different Versions of Zac Gallen
Arizona starts Zac Gallen today.
Bettors love to trust Gallen, and we get why.
While Gallen deserves his positive reputation, we have to be careful.
There are two basic versions of Gallen.
Gallen at home owns a 2.77 ERA in his career.
This is the version of Gallen that people generally see as the Zac Gallen.
But we don't get this version of Gallen today, because he is on the road.
Away from home, his career ERA is 3.57.
Gallen in San Francisco
Gallen is particularly vulnerable against the Giants.
His overall career ERA against them is 4.13. This ERA rises to 4.31 in Oracle Park.
Look out, among others, for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, and Michael Conforto.
They slug, respectively, .500, .600, and 1.000 in at least seven career at-bats against Gallen.
Kyle Harrison
San Francisco starts Kyle Harrison today.
Harrison's ERA might not look very appetizing, but let's look at why it's this high.
His ERA is so high because he spent the earlier part of his season throwing bad pitches with greater frequency.
In his first start of the season, he threw his slurve eleven times. This pitch is responsible for much of the damage inflicted on him so far.
For example, it yielded a 3.000 slugging rate in that game partly because he gave up a home run with it.
Harrison is more reliable now because he is throwing his slurve less often.
He actually still had a good season-opening game.
In three starts, he's allowed three runs or fewer while lasting six innings in each of them.
One has to expect him to thrive today against an Arizona lineup that history leads us to believe will fall back down to earth with a heavy decline after amassing 17 runs yesterday.
Best Bet: Giants ML at +113 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET in PNC Park
Kutter Crawford's Season So Far
Boston starts Kutter Crawford for this game.
While Crawford has undeniably improved relative to last season, I find that his ongoing success is unsustainable.
It is absurd for someone's ERA to drop as many points as it has – it was 4.04 last season, and it is an unsustainable 0.42 right now.
There is no question that he will struggle in some start. It is only a matter of when.
In terms of velocity, spin rate, and movement, some of his pitches have even declined relative to last year.
The point is that he has not magically morphed into some divine phenom, and his ERA is going to reflect that that some point.
Key Advanced Statistic
Pittsburgh is just the team to hit Crawford hard today.
The key statistic here is xSLG.
Baseball has luck involved in that a batter can fail to get a hit despite doing everything that a better needs to do.
Looking at xSLG, when it is very distinct from a team's slugging rate, creates great opportunities for coming up with a sneaky good bet.
Pittsburgh's seventh-best, .464 xSLG against Crawford's pitches from righties indicates its ability to hit them. One must expect the hits to finally come.
Afternoon is just the time for these hits to come because Pittsburgh is very much a day team.
The Pirates' BA jumps .53 and their slugging rate increases .135 in day games relative to night ones.
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller today.
Keller enter today's game having recently found his form.
He has allowed two runs in both of his last two starts, enduring six innings against Detroit and seven innings in Philadelphia.
Going back to last year, he has been dominant at home, where he has allowed a combined total of three runs in his last four starts, despite facing tough lineups.
Although, while Boston is tough, it repeatedly struggles to follow one good output – which it achieved last night – with another.
Best Bet: Pirates ML at -111 with BetOnline
