MLB Best Bets for April 13
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 3:07 p.m. ET in Rogers Centre
Dakota Hudson
Colorado starts Dakota Hudson today.
After his disappointing season last year, Hudson is bouncing back.
So far, his ERA is 2.38 after two starts. He's faced the Cubs and Rays.
Part of his improvement relates to his stronger command of his pitches: he's allowing fewer walks and home runs and less hard contact.
Another part is the increased quality of his sinker, which is his favorite pitch to throw.
This year, Hudson's sinker has more horizontal movement than it did last year.
Consequently, it yields a .231 BA and .385 slugging rate this season whereas last season opponents hit .306 and slugged .522 against it.
Hudson vs. Blue Jays
Hudson throws a sinker, slider, fastball, changeup, and curveball.
He is a good bet to prolong his strong form, because he matches up well against Toronto batters.
They rank dead-last with a .293 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Toronto's Pitching Situation
Initially, Baldwin Francis was going to start today's game for the Blue Jays.
Francis, however, has been relegated to the bullpen because he's yielding a 12.96 ERA through two starts.
Yariel Rodriguez is therefore going to start today's game but only out of sheer necessity.
Rodriguez's high walk rate in Triple-A baseball so far is worrisome.
Every pitcher who makes it into the majors has nice stuff. The key is to command it, which is what Rodriguez is not showing that he is able to do against even Triple-A batters.
His arsenal anyhow requires development – especially since his third pitch, his splitter, is a recent addition, and starters need more than two pitches to last many innings.
For these reasons, one can't expect much from Rodriguez. Great strain will be placed on Toronto's bullpen as a consequence of Rodriguez's limitations.
If Francis comes out of the bullpen, one he could be even worse and less comfortable than he's been as a starter.
With these question marks and grounds for doubt in Toronto's pitching situation, the underdog is attractive today especially with Hudson pitching.
Best Bet: Rockies RL (+1.5) at -125 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
Milwaukee's Starter
DL Hall starts for the Brewers today.
Hall's surface-level stats might dispose bettors to fade him.
However, his last start was rather the product of misfortune than of a poor individual performance.
In this start, he did a superb job of minimizing hard contact but was unfortunate to yield a very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.50 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how truly well he pitched.
Hall vs. Orioles
Hall is primed to thrive today because he matches up excellently against the Orioles.
A lefty, he throws a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Baltimore ranks 25th with a .276 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Baltimore's Starter
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles today.
Kremer looked so good in his last start that it is tempting to invest in him.
However, throughout his career he has shown a marked tendency to struggle in the start following one in which he pitched immaculately, immaculately being defined as allowing zero runs.
Last year, he allowed an ERA of 4.76 or even much higher in every such start except in the start against baseball's 29th-ranked lineup.
Milwaukee's Lineup
Milwaukee's lineup is anything but 29th-ranked.
The Brewers enter today's game in sizzling form, having scored at least seven runs in each of their last four games.
During this four-game span, they've amassed a total of 47 runs.
They currently rank second in runs per game.
Matchup Edge
Their current form also positions them to match up excellently against Kremer.
During this four-game stretch, they're slugging .527 against Kremer's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brewers ML at +122 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Kyle Gibson's Underrated Form
Kyle Gibson starts for St. Louis today.
It is easy to look at Gibson's ERA and dismiss him.
However, he actually today's game in strong form.
While he gave up six runs in his last start, all six came in the first inning.
He finished his outing by allowing two hits and zero runs in the remaining five innings.
Gibson vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Gibson will succeed today primarily by locking down Arizona's most dangerous hitters.
Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel are Arizona's most regular hitters who have an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of over .800.
These three hitters are, however, combined 4-for-29 with zero extra-base hits against Gibson.
Home Unsweet Home
Arizona starts Ryne Nelson today.
Nelson's first home start this year came on April 1 against the Yankees when he allowed four earned runs in 2.2 innings.
That start signifies a perpetuation of his career-long struggles in Arizona's dry climate and high altitude. Perhaps for similar reasons he also struggles in Denver's Coors Field.
His career home ERA of 7.49, which is over four points higher than his career road ERA, justifies fading him at home even against Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse, much less Nolan Arenado and his underachieving but capable teammates.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at -110 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 3:07 p.m. ET in Rogers Centre
Dakota Hudson
Colorado starts Dakota Hudson today.
After his disappointing season last year, Hudson is bouncing back.
So far, his ERA is 2.38 after two starts. He's faced the Cubs and Rays.
Part of his improvement relates to his stronger command of his pitches: he's allowing fewer walks and home runs and less hard contact.
Another part is the increased quality of his sinker, which is his favorite pitch to throw.
This year, Hudson's sinker has more horizontal movement than it did last year.
Consequently, it yields a .231 BA and .385 slugging rate this season whereas last season opponents hit .306 and slugged .522 against it.
Hudson vs. Blue Jays
Hudson throws a sinker, slider, fastball, changeup, and curveball.
He is a good bet to prolong his strong form, because he matches up well against Toronto batters.
They rank dead-last with a .293 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Toronto's Pitching Situation
Initially, Baldwin Francis was going to start today's game for the Blue Jays.
Francis, however, has been relegated to the bullpen because he's yielding a 12.96 ERA through two starts.
Yariel Rodriguez is therefore going to start today's game but only out of sheer necessity.
Rodriguez's high walk rate in Triple-A baseball so far is worrisome.
Every pitcher who makes it into the majors has nice stuff. The key is to command it, which is what Rodriguez is not showing that he is able to do against even Triple-A batters.
His arsenal anyhow requires development – especially since his third pitch, his splitter, is a recent addition, and starters need more than two pitches to last many innings.
For these reasons, one can't expect much from Rodriguez. Great strain will be placed on Toronto's bullpen as a consequence of Rodriguez's limitations.
If Francis comes out of the bullpen, one he could be even worse and less comfortable than he's been as a starter.
With these question marks and grounds for doubt in Toronto's pitching situation, the underdog is attractive today especially with Hudson pitching.
Best Bet: Rockies RL (+1.5) at -125 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
Milwaukee's Starter
DL Hall starts for the Brewers today.
Hall's surface-level stats might dispose bettors to fade him.
However, his last start was rather the product of misfortune than of a poor individual performance.
In this start, he did a superb job of minimizing hard contact but was unfortunate to yield a very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.50 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how truly well he pitched.
Hall vs. Orioles
Hall is primed to thrive today because he matches up excellently against the Orioles.
A lefty, he throws a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Baltimore ranks 25th with a .276 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Baltimore's Starter
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles today.
Kremer looked so good in his last start that it is tempting to invest in him.
However, throughout his career he has shown a marked tendency to struggle in the start following one in which he pitched immaculately, immaculately being defined as allowing zero runs.
Last year, he allowed an ERA of 4.76 or even much higher in every such start except in the start against baseball's 29th-ranked lineup.
Milwaukee's Lineup
Milwaukee's lineup is anything but 29th-ranked.
The Brewers enter today's game in sizzling form, having scored at least seven runs in each of their last four games.
During this four-game span, they've amassed a total of 47 runs.
They currently rank second in runs per game.
Matchup Edge
Their current form also positions them to match up excellently against Kremer.
During this four-game stretch, they're slugging .527 against Kremer's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brewers ML at +122 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Kyle Gibson's Underrated Form
Kyle Gibson starts for St. Louis today.
It is easy to look at Gibson's ERA and dismiss him.
However, he actually today's game in strong form.
While he gave up six runs in his last start, all six came in the first inning.
He finished his outing by allowing two hits and zero runs in the remaining five innings.
Gibson vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Gibson will succeed today primarily by locking down Arizona's most dangerous hitters.
Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel are Arizona's most regular hitters who have an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of over .800.
These three hitters are, however, combined 4-for-29 with zero extra-base hits against Gibson.
Home Unsweet Home
Arizona starts Ryne Nelson today.
Nelson's first home start this year came on April 1 against the Yankees when he allowed four earned runs in 2.2 innings.
That start signifies a perpetuation of his career-long struggles in Arizona's dry climate and high altitude. Perhaps for similar reasons he also struggles in Denver's Coors Field.
His career home ERA of 7.49, which is over four points higher than his career road ERA, justifies fading him at home even against Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse, much less Nolan Arenado and his underachieving but capable teammates.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at -110 with BetOnline
