MLB Best Bets for April 6: Red Sox-Angels Is Low-Scoring Tonight
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Chicago's Starter
Chicago starts Chris Flexen tonight.
Flexen is an easy pitcher to like only if you somehow forget about his last season.
His ERA declined from 3.73 in 2022 to 6.86 in 2023.
A major part of his decline was that he lacked the stuff to get batters out when seeing them for a second or third time in a given game.
His ERA was 6.82 in his second time through the order and 11.66 in his third time.
We saw this exact problem take place in his 2024 season-opener when Atlanta roughed him up in his second time through the order.
In terms of features like spin and movement, his pitches are unimpressive and thus easy for batters to figure out.
Kansas City's Lineup
I like the Royals tonight because they rank seventh with a .504 slugging rate against Flexen's pitches from righties.
Skeptics will say that the Royals' run production has come overwhelmingly from two isolated games, which means that they are inconsistent.
However, their numbers against Flexen's pitches from righties remain strong even when you factor out their two best offensive performances.
They clearly and consistently like facing Flexen's stuff, and they get a pitcher who throws this stuff poorly.
Michael Wacha's Outlook
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals tonight.
He gets a much easier test tonight than he did in his season-opener, when, despite his comfort with his beloved whiff-inducing changeup, he allowed three runs in five innings in Baltimore.
The White Sox have scored a total of five runs in their past seven games, making them a great lineup for Wacha to bounce back against.
I don't like Kansas City's bullpen in general, so we'll stick to trusting Wacha.
Best Bet: Royals First-Half -1 at +100 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Brave
Saturday, April 6 at 2024 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Arizona's Starter
Arizona starts Brandon Pfaadt tonight.
The fun-sounding narrative surrounding Pfaadt last year as a rookie is that he surged from a struggling rookie to World Series starter.
It is true that, in the postseason, he achieved a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings.
However, as his postseason starts in Milwaukee and Philadelphia show, he failed to dispel doubts about his potential to succeed on the road.
He especially tends to struggle against good lineups on the road.
These struggles were apparent throughout his season last year, from when he allowed seven runs in Texas in April to when the Dodgers amassed five earned runs in four innings against him on August 30.
The alterations that he made as a pitcher, however various they are, are not sufficing to obviate such struggles against higher-quality lineups on the road.
In his season-opener this year against Colorado, it looked like Pfaadt was building on his success from last season.
But in reality, he merely victimized another weak lineup.
Atlanta's Lineup
Atlanta's lineup is anything but weak.
The Braves are tied for first right now with seven runs per game.
It's not like their success is isolated. They've scored nine runs in three of their six games and five runs or more (excluding extras) in four of their games.
Their lineup is deep. For example, Orlando Arcia at the bottom of their lineup has been hot.
Max Fried's Bounce-Back Spot
Atlanta starts Max Fried tonight.
Fried is primed to bounce back after his bad start last week.
He has proven himself to be a strong bounce-back pitcher.
Last year, he yielded an ERA of over five in two different games. After one such game, he allowed zero runs in six innings at the Cubs. After the other, he allowed two runs in six innings to the Yankees.
What's particularly impressive about those two performances is that the lineups he victimized matched up extremely well against him as measured by their success against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half -1 at -110 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Garrett Whitlock
Boston starts Garrett Whitlock tonight.
Whitlock's career disparity between his ERA as a starter and his ERA as a reliever may suggest that he is made to be a reliever, but this statistical disparity is superficial because it requires context.
After an injury-induced late start to Spring Training plagued the beginning of his season as a starter, he thrived as a reliever last year because he made key adjustments to his pitches.
We're seeing the fruits of those adjustments.
Trying to prove that he belongs in Boston's starting rotation, Whitlock achieved a strong season-opening performance in which he displayed the effective potential of his different pitches.
His sinker, for example, is benefiting from a different grip. This pitch yielded a .143 BA.
His breaking stuff and his changeup alike also benefit from his focus on altering how batters perceive them at the plate.
Whitlock Takeaway
Last year, Whitlock dominated the Angels with seven innings of one-run ball. This start took place in April when he was still finding his footing after his injury-induced slow start to his season.
Now, he is in good form and improved in general. It is only logical to expect him to continue thriving against the same team, as he proves that he belongs in the starting rotation.
Reid Detmers
Reid Detmers starts for the Angels tonight.
In his season-opening start, Detmers cooled off Baltimore's tough lineup.
He's primed to also cool off a Boston lineup that slugs .333 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at +100 with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Chicago's Starter
Chicago starts Chris Flexen tonight.
Flexen is an easy pitcher to like only if you somehow forget about his last season.
His ERA declined from 3.73 in 2022 to 6.86 in 2023.
A major part of his decline was that he lacked the stuff to get batters out when seeing them for a second or third time in a given game.
His ERA was 6.82 in his second time through the order and 11.66 in his third time.
We saw this exact problem take place in his 2024 season-opener when Atlanta roughed him up in his second time through the order.
In terms of features like spin and movement, his pitches are unimpressive and thus easy for batters to figure out.
Kansas City's Lineup
I like the Royals tonight because they rank seventh with a .504 slugging rate against Flexen's pitches from righties.
Skeptics will say that the Royals' run production has come overwhelmingly from two isolated games, which means that they are inconsistent.
However, their numbers against Flexen's pitches from righties remain strong even when you factor out their two best offensive performances.
They clearly and consistently like facing Flexen's stuff, and they get a pitcher who throws this stuff poorly.
Michael Wacha's Outlook
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals tonight.
He gets a much easier test tonight than he did in his season-opener, when, despite his comfort with his beloved whiff-inducing changeup, he allowed three runs in five innings in Baltimore.
The White Sox have scored a total of five runs in their past seven games, making them a great lineup for Wacha to bounce back against.
I don't like Kansas City's bullpen in general, so we'll stick to trusting Wacha.
Best Bet: Royals First-Half -1 at +100 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Brave
Saturday, April 6 at 2024 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Arizona's Starter
Arizona starts Brandon Pfaadt tonight.
The fun-sounding narrative surrounding Pfaadt last year as a rookie is that he surged from a struggling rookie to World Series starter.
It is true that, in the postseason, he achieved a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings.
However, as his postseason starts in Milwaukee and Philadelphia show, he failed to dispel doubts about his potential to succeed on the road.
He especially tends to struggle against good lineups on the road.
These struggles were apparent throughout his season last year, from when he allowed seven runs in Texas in April to when the Dodgers amassed five earned runs in four innings against him on August 30.
The alterations that he made as a pitcher, however various they are, are not sufficing to obviate such struggles against higher-quality lineups on the road.
In his season-opener this year against Colorado, it looked like Pfaadt was building on his success from last season.
But in reality, he merely victimized another weak lineup.
Atlanta's Lineup
Atlanta's lineup is anything but weak.
The Braves are tied for first right now with seven runs per game.
It's not like their success is isolated. They've scored nine runs in three of their six games and five runs or more (excluding extras) in four of their games.
Their lineup is deep. For example, Orlando Arcia at the bottom of their lineup has been hot.
Max Fried's Bounce-Back Spot
Atlanta starts Max Fried tonight.
Fried is primed to bounce back after his bad start last week.
He has proven himself to be a strong bounce-back pitcher.
Last year, he yielded an ERA of over five in two different games. After one such game, he allowed zero runs in six innings at the Cubs. After the other, he allowed two runs in six innings to the Yankees.
What's particularly impressive about those two performances is that the lineups he victimized matched up extremely well against him as measured by their success against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half -1 at -110 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Garrett Whitlock
Boston starts Garrett Whitlock tonight.
Whitlock's career disparity between his ERA as a starter and his ERA as a reliever may suggest that he is made to be a reliever, but this statistical disparity is superficial because it requires context.
After an injury-induced late start to Spring Training plagued the beginning of his season as a starter, he thrived as a reliever last year because he made key adjustments to his pitches.
We're seeing the fruits of those adjustments.
Trying to prove that he belongs in Boston's starting rotation, Whitlock achieved a strong season-opening performance in which he displayed the effective potential of his different pitches.
His sinker, for example, is benefiting from a different grip. This pitch yielded a .143 BA.
His breaking stuff and his changeup alike also benefit from his focus on altering how batters perceive them at the plate.
Whitlock Takeaway
Last year, Whitlock dominated the Angels with seven innings of one-run ball. This start took place in April when he was still finding his footing after his injury-induced slow start to his season.
Now, he is in good form and improved in general. It is only logical to expect him to continue thriving against the same team, as he proves that he belongs in the starting rotation.
Reid Detmers
Reid Detmers starts for the Angels tonight.
In his season-opening start, Detmers cooled off Baltimore's tough lineup.
He's primed to also cool off a Boston lineup that slugs .333 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at +100 with Bovada
