3-Pack Mixed August 26: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for the Royals?
Jordan Lyles starts for Kansas City tonight.
Lyles enters tonight's game in terrible form: he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts.
More deeply, he's struggling to strike batters out and is giving up a lot of hits.
An alarmingly high proportion of those hits are home runs.
In his last two starts alone, he has surrendered a combined total of six home runs.
More generally, he is yielding a lot of hard contact and infrequent small contact.
The takeaway from all this is that opposing lineups are rather reliable against Lyles. He is consistently getting crushed.
Lyles' Arsenal
Lyles' arsenal helps explain why batters have such an easy time against him.
He throws a fastball, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
While this is a nice amount of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
Four of his six pitches yield a slugging rate of over .480.
Among other things, he struggles to locate his pitches.
This is especially true of the two he throws most often, his fastball and sweeper.
Heat maps show that he often places them in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Seattle's Lineup
Whereas Lyles' form is weak, the Mariners are hitting superbly.
Since August 14, they have scored six or more runs in nine of eleven games.
During this time span, they rank second with a .568 slugging rate against Lyles' pitches from righties.
They will thus pose a relatively tough challenge to an already struggling Lyles.
Best Bet: Jordan Lyles over 3.5 earned runs at +115 with Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Touki Toussaint starts for Chicago tonight.
The results of Toussaint's most recent four starts create a misleadingly negative impression of him.
While he gave up a lot of runs, he faced tough competition.
Three of his last four opponents, the Mariners, Cubs, and Rangers, rank top-10 in runs per game.
While the other team, the Yankees, ranks outside the top-10 in runs per game, he actually performed well against them.
In his start against them, he did a great job of inducing soft contact. His 2.67 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
His FIP in his start against the Yankees shows his ability to thrive against lower-quality lineups.
Oakland's Lineup
Oakland's lineup is certainly lower-quality.
The A's, by far, rank dead-last in runs per game, as they are the only team to average fewer than four runs per game.
Moreover, they are in a particularly bad spot today because they are coming off a two-game win streak.
In the second half of the season, they are 0-4 in the game following a two-game win streak.
They've scored a combined total of four runs in these four losses.
Who Starts for the A's?
JP Sears starts for Oakland tonight.
Sears enters tonight's game in terrible form, having allowed a combined total of 14 earned runs in his last three starts, which totaled 13 innings.
Chicago's Lineup
Chicago's lineup is in a good spot tonight because Sears has been struggling against weaker matchups.
Plus, the White Sox slug .430 against lefty starters.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox ML at -120 & under 9 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Dakota Hudson starts for St. Louis tonight.
Hudson's two most recent starts create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he did well against the Mets, he got to face them in a let-down spot -- the Mets tend to collapse against any pitcher after scoring double digits.
Moreover, he did well against Oakland, but Oakland has the worst lineup in baseball.
Hudson's Arsenal
Tonight, Hudson will face a much tougher challenge in Philadelphia -- the Phillies rank tenth in runs per game and are significantly more productive at home than on the road -- which he lacks the quality in his arsenal to survive.
Primarily, he relies on three pitches, his sinker, slider, and fastball.
His fastball, for example, places in the 24th percentile in velocity and in the 15th percentile in spin.
He lacks the stuff to induce batters to whiff on his pitches or to chase them outside the strike zone.
Batters can simply wait for him to throw pitches inside the strike zone, where they are with relative ease able to achieve hits.
Despite facing stronger versions of Hudson's favorite pitches, Philly ranks eighth with a .447 slugging rate against them from righties.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies tonight.
Wheeler loves facing the Cardinals: he owns a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against them.
St. Louis's Lineup
The Cardinals are already hitting awfully.
Since August 16, they've mustered two runs or fewer in six of nine games.
During this span, they're slugging .356 against Wheeler's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Phillies RL at +100 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
- Jordan Lyles suffers awful form
- The Mariners are consistently hitting very well
- Recently, Seattle is thriving against Lyles' pitches from righties
Who Starts for the Royals?
Jordan Lyles starts for Kansas City tonight.
Lyles enters tonight's game in terrible form: he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts.
More deeply, he's struggling to strike batters out and is giving up a lot of hits.
An alarmingly high proportion of those hits are home runs.
In his last two starts alone, he has surrendered a combined total of six home runs.
More generally, he is yielding a lot of hard contact and infrequent small contact.
The takeaway from all this is that opposing lineups are rather reliable against Lyles. He is consistently getting crushed.
Lyles' Arsenal
Lyles' arsenal helps explain why batters have such an easy time against him.
He throws a fastball, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
While this is a nice amount of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
Four of his six pitches yield a slugging rate of over .480.
Among other things, he struggles to locate his pitches.
This is especially true of the two he throws most often, his fastball and sweeper.
Heat maps show that he often places them in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Seattle's Lineup
Whereas Lyles' form is weak, the Mariners are hitting superbly.
Since August 14, they have scored six or more runs in nine of eleven games.
During this time span, they rank second with a .568 slugging rate against Lyles' pitches from righties.
They will thus pose a relatively tough challenge to an already struggling Lyles.
Best Bet: Jordan Lyles over 3.5 earned runs at +115 with Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
- Touki Toussaint is reliable against weaker lineups
- Oakland's already weak lineup is in a bad spot, as is the team as a whole
- The White Sox love facing lefty starters
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Touki Toussaint starts for Chicago tonight.
The results of Toussaint's most recent four starts create a misleadingly negative impression of him.
While he gave up a lot of runs, he faced tough competition.
Three of his last four opponents, the Mariners, Cubs, and Rangers, rank top-10 in runs per game.
While the other team, the Yankees, ranks outside the top-10 in runs per game, he actually performed well against them.
In his start against them, he did a great job of inducing soft contact. His 2.67 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
His FIP in his start against the Yankees shows his ability to thrive against lower-quality lineups.
Oakland's Lineup
Oakland's lineup is certainly lower-quality.
The A's, by far, rank dead-last in runs per game, as they are the only team to average fewer than four runs per game.
Moreover, they are in a particularly bad spot today because they are coming off a two-game win streak.
In the second half of the season, they are 0-4 in the game following a two-game win streak.
They've scored a combined total of four runs in these four losses.
Who Starts for the A's?
JP Sears starts for Oakland tonight.
Sears enters tonight's game in terrible form, having allowed a combined total of 14 earned runs in his last three starts, which totaled 13 innings.
Chicago's Lineup
Chicago's lineup is in a good spot tonight because Sears has been struggling against weaker matchups.
Plus, the White Sox slug .430 against lefty starters.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox ML at -120 & under 9 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
- Dakota Hudson finally faces a tough test in Philadelphia
- Zack Wheeler loves facing St. Louis
- The Cardinals' lineup is cold
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Dakota Hudson starts for St. Louis tonight.
Hudson's two most recent starts create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he did well against the Mets, he got to face them in a let-down spot -- the Mets tend to collapse against any pitcher after scoring double digits.
Moreover, he did well against Oakland, but Oakland has the worst lineup in baseball.
Hudson's Arsenal
Tonight, Hudson will face a much tougher challenge in Philadelphia -- the Phillies rank tenth in runs per game and are significantly more productive at home than on the road -- which he lacks the quality in his arsenal to survive.
Primarily, he relies on three pitches, his sinker, slider, and fastball.
His fastball, for example, places in the 24th percentile in velocity and in the 15th percentile in spin.
He lacks the stuff to induce batters to whiff on his pitches or to chase them outside the strike zone.
Batters can simply wait for him to throw pitches inside the strike zone, where they are with relative ease able to achieve hits.
Despite facing stronger versions of Hudson's favorite pitches, Philly ranks eighth with a .447 slugging rate against them from righties.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies tonight.
Wheeler loves facing the Cardinals: he owns a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against them.
St. Louis's Lineup
The Cardinals are already hitting awfully.
Since August 16, they've mustered two runs or fewer in six of nine games.
During this span, they're slugging .356 against Wheeler's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Phillies RL at +100 with BetOnline
