3-Pack Mixed August 19: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight.
Primarily, Mikolas throws a sinker, fastball, slider, and curveball.
These four pitches make up 94.4 percent of his arsenal.
This year, Mikolas is easier for batters to succeed against because he is having more trouble relying on pitches to throw.
In particular, he throws his sinker most often.
However, this pitch yields a .340 BA and .489 slugging rate.
He also lacks quality alternative pitches that he can rely on.
His fastball, for example, places below the 50th percentile in both velocity and spin.
Mets Lineup
New York's lineup is contributing significantly to its ongoing success as a team.
The Mets have won five of their last six games.
As part of this run, they've scored seven or more runs four times.
Their outlook tonight is also positive because they match up well against Mikolas, ranking ninth with a .439 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Pitches for the Mets?
Kodai Senga starts for New York tonight.
He is coming off a start in which he was unfortunate to yield as many runs as he did. His 1.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start, which took place against Atlanta, reflects how well he actually performed.
His strong form is evident in this trend: he has yielded an FIP below 2.30 in three straight starts.
A Cardinals lineup that has scored three runs in its last three games, while struggling even against pitchers it matches up favorably with, won't disrupt his good form.
Best Bet: Mets ML at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for Detroit?
Matt Manning starts for the Tigers tonight.
Manning's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
In that start, he benefited from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 4.58 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he performed individually.
Indeed, batters tend to be productive against Manning.
He had allowed both 7+ hits and four earned runs or more in three straight starts before his last outing.
On the season, he's allowed six or more hits and four or more earned runs in nearly half of his starts.
Matt Manning's Arsenal
Manning's arsenal helps explain why batters are more easily productive against him.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
With his repertoire, he does an awful job inducing batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.
Consequently, batters are more easily able to wait for him to throw strikes.
When he throws strikes, heat maps show that he tends to place all three of his favorite pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their poor placement.
For example, his fastball places in the 48th percentile in velocity and in the 21st percentile in spin, suggesting that batters have an easier time keeping up with it and tracking its movement.
Jose Ramirez
I especially like Jose Ramirez to thrive for Cleveland today.
He slugs .537 against Manning's favorite pitches from righties.
His matchup edge suggests that he'll bounce back off a rare hitless outing.
Best Bet: Jose Ramirez over 1.5 total bases at -110 with Bovada
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta & Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for San Francisco?
The Giants start Logan Webb tonight.
Webb enters tonight's game in strong form: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts and, more extensively, in six of his last eight starts.
His current form looks particularly impressive because he's sustained it against strong competition.
For example, he limited Texas to one run in 8.2 innings in his last start.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Yonny Chirinos starts for the Braves tonight.
Chirinos is coming off a start in which he allowed many runs because he was unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 3.05 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he has actually performed.
In three of his last four starts, he has performed at least as well.
Tonight, he gets to face a Giants lineup that ranks 23rd with a .358 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Colorado's Flop Spot
In their game against Chicago, the Rockies will fall down to Earth after their tremendous performance yesterday.
Two pieces of data suggest as much.
One, they've lost their last five games that followed a win.
Two, they are 3-9 this season after scoring nine or more runs in a game.
Chicago's Pitching Edge
The White Sox also boast stronger starting pitching tonight.
Colorado's Kyle Freeland has allowed eleven earned runs, including six home runs, in his past three starts combined.
On the other side, Chicago's Jesse Scholtens has sustained his current positive form even against Texas.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants-Braves under 9.5 at -120 & White Sox ML at -115 at +243 odds with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- The Mets enjoy strong form
- Miles Mikolas matches up poorly against the Mets
- St. Louis is struggling to hit even pitchers it matches up well against
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight.
Primarily, Mikolas throws a sinker, fastball, slider, and curveball.
These four pitches make up 94.4 percent of his arsenal.
This year, Mikolas is easier for batters to succeed against because he is having more trouble relying on pitches to throw.
In particular, he throws his sinker most often.
However, this pitch yields a .340 BA and .489 slugging rate.
He also lacks quality alternative pitches that he can rely on.
His fastball, for example, places below the 50th percentile in both velocity and spin.
Mets Lineup
New York's lineup is contributing significantly to its ongoing success as a team.
The Mets have won five of their last six games.
As part of this run, they've scored seven or more runs four times.
Their outlook tonight is also positive because they match up well against Mikolas, ranking ninth with a .439 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Pitches for the Mets?
Kodai Senga starts for New York tonight.
He is coming off a start in which he was unfortunate to yield as many runs as he did. His 1.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start, which took place against Atlanta, reflects how well he actually performed.
His strong form is evident in this trend: he has yielded an FIP below 2.30 in three straight starts.
A Cardinals lineup that has scored three runs in its last three games, while struggling even against pitchers it matches up favorably with, won't disrupt his good form.
Best Bet: Mets ML at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Batters are reliably productive against Matt Manning
- Manning often leaves easy pitches to hit in middle parts of the strike zone
- Jose Ramirez hits Manning's pitches from righties very well
Who Starts for Detroit?
Matt Manning starts for the Tigers tonight.
Manning's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
In that start, he benefited from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 4.58 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he performed individually.
Indeed, batters tend to be productive against Manning.
He had allowed both 7+ hits and four earned runs or more in three straight starts before his last outing.
On the season, he's allowed six or more hits and four or more earned runs in nearly half of his starts.
Matt Manning's Arsenal
Manning's arsenal helps explain why batters are more easily productive against him.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
With his repertoire, he does an awful job inducing batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.
Consequently, batters are more easily able to wait for him to throw strikes.
When he throws strikes, heat maps show that he tends to place all three of his favorite pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their poor placement.
For example, his fastball places in the 48th percentile in velocity and in the 21st percentile in spin, suggesting that batters have an easier time keeping up with it and tracking its movement.
Jose Ramirez
I especially like Jose Ramirez to thrive for Cleveland today.
He slugs .537 against Manning's favorite pitches from righties.
His matchup edge suggests that he'll bounce back off a rare hitless outing.
Best Bet: Jose Ramirez over 1.5 total bases at -110 with Bovada
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta & Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
- Logan Webb enjoys strong form
- The Giants match up poorly against Yonny Chirinos
- Colorado is slated to fall back down to Earth
Who Starts for San Francisco?
The Giants start Logan Webb tonight.
Webb enters tonight's game in strong form: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts and, more extensively, in six of his last eight starts.
His current form looks particularly impressive because he's sustained it against strong competition.
For example, he limited Texas to one run in 8.2 innings in his last start.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Yonny Chirinos starts for the Braves tonight.
Chirinos is coming off a start in which he allowed many runs because he was unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 3.05 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he has actually performed.
In three of his last four starts, he has performed at least as well.
Tonight, he gets to face a Giants lineup that ranks 23rd with a .358 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Colorado's Flop Spot
In their game against Chicago, the Rockies will fall down to Earth after their tremendous performance yesterday.
Two pieces of data suggest as much.
One, they've lost their last five games that followed a win.
Two, they are 3-9 this season after scoring nine or more runs in a game.
Chicago's Pitching Edge
The White Sox also boast stronger starting pitching tonight.
Colorado's Kyle Freeland has allowed eleven earned runs, including six home runs, in his past three starts combined.
On the other side, Chicago's Jesse Scholtens has sustained his current positive form even against Texas.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants-Braves under 9.5 at -120 & White Sox ML at -115 at +243 odds with BetOnline
