3-Pack Mixed August 12: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for San Diego?
Rich Hill starts for the Padres today.
Hill's most recent starts create a misleadingly negative impression of him.
He appears to be suffering poor form because he had to face the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres, which rank third, eighth, and sixth, respectively, in slugging against left-handed pitching.
However, before those starts, he yielded a 3.44 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against a then-sizzling Guardians lineup and a 3.60 FIP against a Giants lineup that has had his number.
Hill's Arsenal
Arizona is going to be a welcome opponent for Hill in view of his arsenal.
He throws a curveball, fastball, cutter, sweeper, sinker, and changeup.
Looking at the season-long statistics, which do not emphasize its current slump, Arizona slugs .402 against Hill's pitches from lefties.
Since their ongoing, nine-game losing streak began on August 1, the Diamondbacks are slugging .284 against Hill's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona tonight.
Gallen has regained his form, limiting Minnesota in his last start to two earned runs in seven innings.
It's impressive that this start took place on the road, because he is much stronger at home.
In Chase Field this season, he boasts a 1.96 ERA. At this venue, opponents are hitting .206 and slugging .307.
Padres Batters
Gallen's reliability at home along with Arizona's struggling lineup makes the "under" solid.
However, his team's losing rhythm and key Padres batters make the Padres a great bet.
Look out for guys like Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis, who slug over .900 against Gallen.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres RL at -157 & under 9 at -115 at +206 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Jesse Scholtens tonight.
Scholtens' most recent starts make him look much better than he actually is.
While he yielded few runs, he benefitted from facing Guardians and Rangers lineups that were suffering poor form.
Plus, his 3.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in both starts suggests that he performed poorly.
He still gave up a fair amount of hits to Cleveland and failed to induce any soft contact against Texas.
Therefore, this is still the same Scholtens who gave up three runs in only four innings to Toronto and, more worrisomely, also to Oakland.
While he's never been one to walk many batters, this is a good thing for hitter props, because batters can't hit their total bases "over" if they walk.
Plus, Scholtens gives up a lot of home runs for how few innings he pitches -- he allows 1.26 home runs per nine innings.
Scholtens' Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Scholtens primarily throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
He throws a fastball almost half the time, yet it is deficient in several respects.
It places in the 36th percentile in velocity and in the tenth percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather hittable.
Plus, he often leaves this pitch in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
But he lacks alternative pitches to rely on.
Christian Yelich
My favorite Brewers batter to invest in tonight is Christian Yelich.
Yelich carries a four-game hitting streak into tonight's game.
His outlook tonight is particularly strong because he slugs .565 against Scholtens' pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Christian Yelich total bases over
Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 9:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for Texas tonight.
Heaney enters tonight's game in strong form.
In his last two starts, he's allowed zero runs in his last 11.2 innings, locking down Marlins and White Sox lineups that have done a much better job hitting his pitches than his opponent tonight.
The extent of his domination of these two lineups is also noteworthy.
He limited them to a combined total of six hits, in addition to striking them out 15 times.
Heaney's Arsenal
Heaney throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
His fastball is hard to hit in view of its immense spin.
He ably elevates this pitch, giving it the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath this pitch.
Moreover, he plays it well off his other stuff.
His slider and changeup are much slower, and he likes to bury both pitches, so that he not only changes pace, but he also alters the batter's eye-level.
San Francisco's outlook is negative tonight because it ranks last with a .337 slugging rate against Heaney's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight.
Cobb enters tonight's game in poor form, having allowed a combined total of eight earned runs in his last two starts.
While he's had some good starts recently, they look place against poor A's and Pirates lineups, which both rank over 20 spots below Texas in runs per game.
Cobb's Arsenal
Cobb throws a sinker, split finger, curveball, and slider.
Texas's outlook is solid tonight because it ranks second with a .444 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rangers ML at +109 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Rich Hill will be glad to finally face softer competition
- Arizona's lineup hits Hill's pitches from lefties poorly and is anyhow suffering an awful slump as part of its losing streak
- Zac Gallen is elite at home, although key Padres batters will do enough for a San Diego victory
Who Starts for San Diego?
Rich Hill starts for the Padres today.
Hill's most recent starts create a misleadingly negative impression of him.
He appears to be suffering poor form because he had to face the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres, which rank third, eighth, and sixth, respectively, in slugging against left-handed pitching.
However, before those starts, he yielded a 3.44 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against a then-sizzling Guardians lineup and a 3.60 FIP against a Giants lineup that has had his number.
Hill's Arsenal
Arizona is going to be a welcome opponent for Hill in view of his arsenal.
He throws a curveball, fastball, cutter, sweeper, sinker, and changeup.
Looking at the season-long statistics, which do not emphasize its current slump, Arizona slugs .402 against Hill's pitches from lefties.
Since their ongoing, nine-game losing streak began on August 1, the Diamondbacks are slugging .284 against Hill's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona tonight.
Gallen has regained his form, limiting Minnesota in his last start to two earned runs in seven innings.
It's impressive that this start took place on the road, because he is much stronger at home.
In Chase Field this season, he boasts a 1.96 ERA. At this venue, opponents are hitting .206 and slugging .307.
Padres Batters
Gallen's reliability at home along with Arizona's struggling lineup makes the "under" solid.
However, his team's losing rhythm and key Padres batters make the Padres a great bet.
Look out for guys like Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis, who slug over .900 against Gallen.
Best Bet: Parlay Padres RL at -157 & under 9 at -115 at +206 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
- Jesse Scholtens lacks quality in his arsenal
- Christian Yelich is picking up steam
- Yelich slugs Scholtens' pitches from righties well
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Jesse Scholtens tonight.
Scholtens' most recent starts make him look much better than he actually is.
While he yielded few runs, he benefitted from facing Guardians and Rangers lineups that were suffering poor form.
Plus, his 3.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in both starts suggests that he performed poorly.
He still gave up a fair amount of hits to Cleveland and failed to induce any soft contact against Texas.
Therefore, this is still the same Scholtens who gave up three runs in only four innings to Toronto and, more worrisomely, also to Oakland.
While he's never been one to walk many batters, this is a good thing for hitter props, because batters can't hit their total bases "over" if they walk.
Plus, Scholtens gives up a lot of home runs for how few innings he pitches -- he allows 1.26 home runs per nine innings.
Scholtens' Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Scholtens primarily throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
He throws a fastball almost half the time, yet it is deficient in several respects.
It places in the 36th percentile in velocity and in the tenth percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather hittable.
Plus, he often leaves this pitch in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
But he lacks alternative pitches to rely on.
Christian Yelich
My favorite Brewers batter to invest in tonight is Christian Yelich.
Yelich carries a four-game hitting streak into tonight's game.
His outlook tonight is particularly strong because he slugs .565 against Scholtens' pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Christian Yelich total bases over
Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 9:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
- Andrew Heaney enters tonight's game in much stronger form than Alex Cobb
- The Giants match up horribly against Heaney
- Texas hits Cobb's pitches from lefties very well
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for Texas tonight.
Heaney enters tonight's game in strong form.
In his last two starts, he's allowed zero runs in his last 11.2 innings, locking down Marlins and White Sox lineups that have done a much better job hitting his pitches than his opponent tonight.
The extent of his domination of these two lineups is also noteworthy.
He limited them to a combined total of six hits, in addition to striking them out 15 times.
Heaney's Arsenal
Heaney throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
His fastball is hard to hit in view of its immense spin.
He ably elevates this pitch, giving it the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath this pitch.
Moreover, he plays it well off his other stuff.
His slider and changeup are much slower, and he likes to bury both pitches, so that he not only changes pace, but he also alters the batter's eye-level.
San Francisco's outlook is negative tonight because it ranks last with a .337 slugging rate against Heaney's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight.
Cobb enters tonight's game in poor form, having allowed a combined total of eight earned runs in his last two starts.
While he's had some good starts recently, they look place against poor A's and Pirates lineups, which both rank over 20 spots below Texas in runs per game.
Cobb's Arsenal
Cobb throws a sinker, split finger, curveball, and slider.
Texas's outlook is solid tonight because it ranks second with a .444 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rangers ML at +109 with BetOnline
