3-Pack Mixed August 5: 1 Total, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Noah Syndergaard starts for the Guardians tonight.
Syndergaard's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he only allowed one run, his 4.96 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he actually performed individually.
He has now yielded an FIP of over 4.90 in four straight starts.
During this four-start stretch, he has allowed a combined total of 18 earned runs.
His current form is consistent with his season-long struggles -- his ERA is 6.68.
Syndergaard's Problems
While he doesn't walk a lot of batters, this is a good thing for hitter props, because batters can't get hits by walking.
He does a lot of things wrong, showing that he is not the pitcher he once was.
In particular, his pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 21st percentile in velocity and in the 21st percentile in spin.
Likewise, his curveball places in the 15th percentile in spin.
These numbers show how hittable his pitches are.
Andrew Benintendi
My favorite White Sox batter to invest in tonight is Andrew Benintendi.
Benintendi is picking up steam: in his last two games, he is 3-for-8.
In his career, he's already 3-for-9 with a homer against Syndergaard.
Best Bet: Andrew Benintendi Total Bases over
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies today.
Blach's most recent starts might seem impressive, but there is nothing impressive about doing well against Oakland and Miami.
Both lineups rank bottom-four in runs per game.
Blach, who missed May and June, is no different from the pitcher who was getting crushed throughout April.
Blach's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Blach throws a sinker, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
His pitches lack quality.
They lack velocity and spin, and their movement is comparatively negligible.
Blach's favorite pitch to throw is his sinker, yet this pitch has, as heat maps show, the problem of often landing in the more middle parts of the plate where batters tend to do greater damage.
His third-favorite pitch to throw is his cutter, which helps make him match up poorly against a Cardinals team that loves to hit this particular pitch.
Cardinals Lineup
St. Louis just faced a pitcher who likewise loves to throw cutters, Chris Flexen.
Against the Cardinals last night, Flexen allowed two home runs yet, thanks to a fortunately high strand rate, only allowed three earned runs in five innings, which still amounts to a bad ERA.
St. Louis matches up even more strongly against Blach in view of his pitches and in view of its stronger success against left-handed starters.
The Cardinals rank first with a .503 slugging rate against Blach's pitches from lefties.
Two Cardinals batters have seen Blach at least ten times and both slug .600 or better against him.
Look out especially for Nolan Arenado, who is 10-for-16 with three doubles and a triple when facing Blach.
Bullpens
The "over" will hit because of St. Louis' success against Blach and because both bullpens are awful.
Colorado's bullpen ranks fourth-to-last with a 4.89 ERA while St. Louis's ranks seventh-to-last with a 4.49 ERA.
The Cardinals' bullpen also suffers for having lost Jordan Hicks.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis has the advantage with its starting pitching.
Steven Matz starts for the Cards tonight.
As evident in his strong form, Matz has figured things out: he has allowed zero runs in his last two starts, totaling twelve innings, and one run in his last three starts.
Plus, he matches up well against the Rockies: they slug .356 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -232 & Over 9 at -135 at +149 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 9:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.
As evident in his recent form, Kirby is consistently solid.
Two starts ago, he did allow a lot of runs, but he was unfortunate to yield such a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.77 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually.
He has now yielded an FIP of 2.77 or better in three straight starts.
This three-start stretch includes his most recent outing against a Red Sox lineup that averages .01 fewer runs per game as his opponent today.
Angels' Lineup
While Kirby faces a lineup today that, on the season, is similarly strong to the one he faced in his last outing, the Angels are much weaker than their usual selves right now.
They are suffering a four-game losing.
During this streak, they're slugging .318 against Kirby's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Tyler Anderson starts for L.A. today.
He has improved greatly relative to his awful start to the season, such that his ERA is grossly misleading.
While his ERA was over 5.00 in every previous month, it was 3.28 in July.
His outlook today is especially strong because Seattle ranks 21st with a .404 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Noah Syndergaard is pitching terribly now, as he has all season
- Andrew Benintendi is picking up steam
- Benintendi owns a strong track record against Syndergaard
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Noah Syndergaard starts for the Guardians tonight.
Syndergaard's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he only allowed one run, his 4.96 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he actually performed individually.
He has now yielded an FIP of over 4.90 in four straight starts.
During this four-start stretch, he has allowed a combined total of 18 earned runs.
His current form is consistent with his season-long struggles -- his ERA is 6.68.
Syndergaard's Problems
While he doesn't walk a lot of batters, this is a good thing for hitter props, because batters can't get hits by walking.
He does a lot of things wrong, showing that he is not the pitcher he once was.
In particular, his pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 21st percentile in velocity and in the 21st percentile in spin.
Likewise, his curveball places in the 15th percentile in spin.
These numbers show how hittable his pitches are.
Andrew Benintendi
My favorite White Sox batter to invest in tonight is Andrew Benintendi.
Benintendi is picking up steam: in his last two games, he is 3-for-8.
In his career, he's already 3-for-9 with a homer against Syndergaard.
Best Bet: Andrew Benintendi Total Bases over
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Ty Blach finally faces a tough test today
- Both bullpens are poor
- Steven Matz's form is superb, and he matches up well against the Rockies
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies today.
Blach's most recent starts might seem impressive, but there is nothing impressive about doing well against Oakland and Miami.
Both lineups rank bottom-four in runs per game.
Blach, who missed May and June, is no different from the pitcher who was getting crushed throughout April.
Blach's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Blach throws a sinker, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
His pitches lack quality.
They lack velocity and spin, and their movement is comparatively negligible.
Blach's favorite pitch to throw is his sinker, yet this pitch has, as heat maps show, the problem of often landing in the more middle parts of the plate where batters tend to do greater damage.
His third-favorite pitch to throw is his cutter, which helps make him match up poorly against a Cardinals team that loves to hit this particular pitch.
Cardinals Lineup
St. Louis just faced a pitcher who likewise loves to throw cutters, Chris Flexen.
Against the Cardinals last night, Flexen allowed two home runs yet, thanks to a fortunately high strand rate, only allowed three earned runs in five innings, which still amounts to a bad ERA.
St. Louis matches up even more strongly against Blach in view of his pitches and in view of its stronger success against left-handed starters.
The Cardinals rank first with a .503 slugging rate against Blach's pitches from lefties.
Two Cardinals batters have seen Blach at least ten times and both slug .600 or better against him.
Look out especially for Nolan Arenado, who is 10-for-16 with three doubles and a triple when facing Blach.
Bullpens
The "over" will hit because of St. Louis' success against Blach and because both bullpens are awful.
Colorado's bullpen ranks fourth-to-last with a 4.89 ERA while St. Louis's ranks seventh-to-last with a 4.49 ERA.
The Cardinals' bullpen also suffers for having lost Jordan Hicks.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis has the advantage with its starting pitching.
Steven Matz starts for the Cards tonight.
As evident in his strong form, Matz has figured things out: he has allowed zero runs in his last two starts, totaling twelve innings, and one run in his last three starts.
Plus, he matches up well against the Rockies: they slug .356 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -232 & Over 9 at -135 at +149 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 9:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
- George Kirby enjoys strong form
- Tyler Anderson has improved significantly
- The Angels are slumping, and Seattle matches up poorly with Anderson
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.
As evident in his recent form, Kirby is consistently solid.
Two starts ago, he did allow a lot of runs, but he was unfortunate to yield such a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.77 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually.
He has now yielded an FIP of 2.77 or better in three straight starts.
This three-start stretch includes his most recent outing against a Red Sox lineup that averages .01 fewer runs per game as his opponent today.
Angels' Lineup
While Kirby faces a lineup today that, on the season, is similarly strong to the one he faced in his last outing, the Angels are much weaker than their usual selves right now.
They are suffering a four-game losing.
During this streak, they're slugging .318 against Kirby's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Tyler Anderson starts for L.A. today.
He has improved greatly relative to his awful start to the season, such that his ERA is grossly misleading.
While his ERA was over 5.00 in every previous month, it was 3.28 in July.
His outlook today is especially strong because Seattle ranks 21st with a .404 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at +105 with BetOnline
