NCAA Football Week 10 Parlay Plays For Saturday
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
Favored Way Too Highly
Given the way that the Bulldogs have looked especially since their season opener, asking them to cover this large of a spread seems ridiculous to me.
The key here is that new coach Mike Leach’s air raid system does not work in the SEC.
It worked in the season opener against a Bo Pelini LSU defense that has been beyond catastrophic partly as a consequence of its rust, its sundry mistakes.
After the season opener, other defenses were able to have film on what Leach does and wants to do with his Mississippi State offense.
It helped that other defensive coordinators had experience against the air-raid. They were able to find solutions against Leach’s version of it.
The results substantiate my point: the Bulldogs have scored a combined total of 30 points in their past four games.
They scored 14 points in two of those games and averaged one point in the other two games.
Mississippi State will still become worse. It misses its starting quarterback, KJ Costello, to injury. Officially, he’s listed as ‘questionable.’
If Costello is unable to play, the Bulldogs would have to rely on freshman quarterback Will Rogers.
So the offense would miss Costello’s experience plus his starter-caliber qualities.
So my question for Bulldog backers is the following: how could you expect the Bulldogs to cover something like a 20-point spread when they routinely struggle to even reach 20 points in a game?
Sinking Ship
Mississippi State has witnessed many offensive players give up on the team and on the season.
A number of players have officially departed from the team. Perhaps the most devastating one — at least in terms of talent — is 2019 All-SEC First-Teamer Kylin Hill.
His receiving prowess proved crucial in his team’s win against LSU. But his feeling that he’s been misused has understandably motivated his decision to depart.
Just Give Us Something
The Bulldogs struggle to put up points on any defense, no matter how poorly it ranks.
It would still be nice if we could get something from Vanderbilt’s offense.
The problem is: we shouldn’t expect too much from the Commodore offense.
This offense lacks a single playmaker who the offense can rely on to prolong drives and score multiple touchdowns. Quick and easy points won’t come easy.
Its quarterback averages a meagre 6.2 YPA. Its running backs average 4.5, 3.8, and 3.1 YPC, respectively.
Unlike its running back committee, there is more of a number one wide receiver. Cam Johnson leads the pass-catching crew with 224 yards in four games.
Defensively, Mississippi State ranks in the upper half against both the pass and the run.
Only pass attacks with elite wide receivers have been able to overwhelm the Bulldog cornerbacks.
LSU scored a lot of points largely thanks to Terrace Marshall Jr., its top wide receiver whose combo of size and athleticism makes him unstoppable. He routinely accrues big plays and has already caught nine touchdown passes in five games this season.
Likewise, Alabama has a high-level wide receiver in Devonta Smith who amassed over 200 receiving yards against the Bulldogs. In that one game, he almost eclipsed the season receiving yardage total of Vanderbilt’s top wide receiver.
The Verdict
Expect a paltry turnout from both offenses as measured by production.
Mississippi State is suffering with a broken scheme, one that opposing defenses have figured out.
Like the Bulldogs, the Commodores lack talent on the offensive end. Whereas Mississippi State misses its top offensive player, a running back who was also a weapon in the passing game, Vanderbilt lacks the quality at wide receiver with which to challenge Mississippi State’s secondary.
So what separates the two teams? I think public perception of Vanderbilt helps explain why the spread is as high as it is.
At all events, the Bulldogs lack on offense the scheme and tools to separate themselves from the Commodores.
Best Bet: Commodores +19.5 at -110 & Under 46.5 at -110 with Bookmaker at +264 Odds
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
Favored Way Too Highly
Given the way that the Bulldogs have looked especially since their season opener, asking them to cover this large of a spread seems ridiculous to me.
The key here is that new coach Mike Leach’s air raid system does not work in the SEC.
It worked in the season opener against a Bo Pelini LSU defense that has been beyond catastrophic partly as a consequence of its rust, its sundry mistakes.
After the season opener, other defenses were able to have film on what Leach does and wants to do with his Mississippi State offense.
It helped that other defensive coordinators had experience against the air-raid. They were able to find solutions against Leach’s version of it.
The results substantiate my point: the Bulldogs have scored a combined total of 30 points in their past four games.
They scored 14 points in two of those games and averaged one point in the other two games.
Mississippi State will still become worse. It misses its starting quarterback, KJ Costello, to injury. Officially, he’s listed as ‘questionable.’
If Costello is unable to play, the Bulldogs would have to rely on freshman quarterback Will Rogers.
So the offense would miss Costello’s experience plus his starter-caliber qualities.
So my question for Bulldog backers is the following: how could you expect the Bulldogs to cover something like a 20-point spread when they routinely struggle to even reach 20 points in a game?
Sinking Ship
Mississippi State has witnessed many offensive players give up on the team and on the season.
A number of players have officially departed from the team. Perhaps the most devastating one — at least in terms of talent — is 2019 All-SEC First-Teamer Kylin Hill.
His receiving prowess proved crucial in his team’s win against LSU. But his feeling that he’s been misused has understandably motivated his decision to depart.
Just Give Us Something
The Bulldogs struggle to put up points on any defense, no matter how poorly it ranks.
It would still be nice if we could get something from Vanderbilt’s offense.
The problem is: we shouldn’t expect too much from the Commodore offense.
This offense lacks a single playmaker who the offense can rely on to prolong drives and score multiple touchdowns. Quick and easy points won’t come easy.
Its quarterback averages a meagre 6.2 YPA. Its running backs average 4.5, 3.8, and 3.1 YPC, respectively.
Unlike its running back committee, there is more of a number one wide receiver. Cam Johnson leads the pass-catching crew with 224 yards in four games.
Defensively, Mississippi State ranks in the upper half against both the pass and the run.
Only pass attacks with elite wide receivers have been able to overwhelm the Bulldog cornerbacks.
LSU scored a lot of points largely thanks to Terrace Marshall Jr., its top wide receiver whose combo of size and athleticism makes him unstoppable. He routinely accrues big plays and has already caught nine touchdown passes in five games this season.
Likewise, Alabama has a high-level wide receiver in Devonta Smith who amassed over 200 receiving yards against the Bulldogs. In that one game, he almost eclipsed the season receiving yardage total of Vanderbilt’s top wide receiver.
The Verdict
Expect a paltry turnout from both offenses as measured by production.
Mississippi State is suffering with a broken scheme, one that opposing defenses have figured out.
Like the Bulldogs, the Commodores lack talent on the offensive end. Whereas Mississippi State misses its top offensive player, a running back who was also a weapon in the passing game, Vanderbilt lacks the quality at wide receiver with which to challenge Mississippi State’s secondary.
So what separates the two teams? I think public perception of Vanderbilt helps explain why the spread is as high as it is.
At all events, the Bulldogs lack on offense the scheme and tools to separate themselves from the Commodores.
Best Bet: Commodores +19.5 at -110 & Under 46.5 at -110 with Bookmaker at +264 Odds
