NCAA Football Week 4 Parlay Plays: Two Bets To Win Big
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Recent History
As long as David Cutcliffe has been the head coach of Duke and Bronco Mendenhall that of Virginia, the series has played out unequivocally in Virginia’s favor.
In four games against Duke since 2016, Virginia is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS.
One consistent problem for the Blue Devils in this series has been their quarterback play.
Current New York Giant Daniel Jones struggled massively when he faced Virginia.
Whereas he never threw more than two interceptions in his career against another team, he threw nine against the Hoos. He also completed only 50.7 percent of his passes along with three touchdowns against them.
Last year, the story continued with a new quarterback.
In a blowout loss that only saw 14 points from Duke, all of which coming after the team went down 27-0, Quentin Harris could muster all of 88 passing yards on 26 pass attempts.
This trend likely at least partly owes its continuity to the fact that Duke has kept its offensive coordinator the same as has Virginia its defensive coordinator.
Chase Brice
Quarterback Chase Brice has suffered a rocky start to his Duke career despite having the chance to redeem himself last week against a Boston College secondary that is expected to be very poor after ranking nearly last-place nationally in opposing passing yards in 2019.
Part of Brice’s problem is the struggles of Duke’s pass protection, as a result of which he’s been sacked five times in two games.
He’s also failing to develop chemistry with his new batch of wide receivers as evident in his completing 54.4 percent of his passes while throwing two interceptions to zero touchdowns and averaging six YPA.
Virginia Pass Defense
Secondary will be a strength of Virginia’s defense partly because it was so injury-ridden last year that more key players enter this year with more experience.
Last year’s pass numbers were affected by the injury to safety Brenton Nelson who likes to play in the slot.
Before getting injured, Darrius Bratton likewise could have started alongside current New York Jet Bryce Hall.
A strong pass rush will support Virginia’s secondary.
The Cavs return three of their top four linebackers from last season.
Bronco Mendenhall helps create havoc in a number of ways in a number of formations and he often uses his linebackers to do so.
Noah Taylor, Charles Snowden, and Zane Zandier promise to add to Chase Brice’s sack total after each one accumulated between five and seven sacks last season.
Virginia Offense vs. Duke Defense
Unlike Duke’s new quarterback, Virginia’s new quarterback is already settled into his team’s system.
That Brennan Armstrong would start was never in doubt after serving as Bryce Perkins’ understudy for two years.
He is a consistently accurate and efficient quarterback and he is capable of accruing chunk plays with his legs when he has to.
His top returning receiver will be Terrell Jana who ranked second on the team last year in amassing 886 receiving yards to go along with 74 receptions.
Duke’s pass defense has been disappointing especially since Boston College’s new transfer quarterback threw for 300 yards while completing 17 of 23 pass attempts.
UVA’s run game will be strong with leading rusher Wayne Taulapapa back. Duke is especially young and thin in the interior of its defensive line.
Virginia, with its seven returners on the offensive line plus a graduate transfer from Penn State, will own the trenches especially when UVA runs on a Duke defensive-line whose best asset is its pass rush.
Still, more experienced pass protection, the ability to get the ball out quickly in favored screen plays, and a balanced offense will combine to effectively offset the Blue Devil pass rush.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -5 (-105) with Heritage
Tennessee Volunteers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina
South Carolina Pass Attack vs. Tennessee Secondary
I foresee great trouble for South Carolina trying to move the ball downfield.
The Gamecocks start a graduate transfer from Colorado State in Colin Hill.
He won’t get to throw to the prolific but departed Bryce Edwards. Beyond Shi Smith, there’s little returning production especially since two wide receivers opted-out.
Josh Vann, with his 19 receptions and 171 yards, is the Gamecocks’ second-leading returning wide receiver.
After allowing zero touchdowns in coverage last year, former Freshman All-American Bryce Thompson will be able to contain South Carolina’s most and only threatening wide receiver.
Tennessee’s top returning player according to PFF is Shawn Shamburger at the nickel position. He also didn’t allow a touchdown in coverage last year and locked down opposing receivers in the slot
Volunteer corners receive support in coverage from Jaylen McCollough, who was named to PFF’s All-Freshman squad last season.
So we have a graduate transfer from the Mountain West debuting in a new-look offense under Mike Bobo with a thin pass-catching group contending with strong coverage from Tennessee's secondary.
Tennessee Pass Attack vs. South Carolina Secondary
Jarrett Guarantano has always been woefully inaccurate and terribly unreliable when attempting to move the ball downfield.
Among FBS quarterbacks who have attempted at least 160 passes of 10 yards or more, Guarantano ranks dead-last since 2018.
On top of his own deficiencies, Guarantano misses his top two wide receivers and top pass-catching tight end from last season.
Relative to what the Vols have to counter with, the Gamecocks look deep and redoubtable in the secondary, which will form the strength of their defense
One cornerback to look for will be Israel Mukuamu who was accorded All-SEC second-team honors last season.
Another regular starter in Jaycee Horn rejoins him as well as two returning starters at the safety position which features freshman All-American Jammie Robinson.
The Verdict
While the Gamecocks have little to rely upon offensively especially against Tennessee’s secondary, the Volunteers on offense will want to rely heavily on their rush attack.
The only defensive weakness I perceive in this game is the Gamecocks’ run defense, which South Carolina will be able to provide support for from its safeties because Guarantano lacks both the downfield ability and the returning pass-catching personnel to threaten an improving Gamecock secondary that is not without accolades.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-105) with Heritage
Parlay: Cavaliers -5 (-105) + Volunteers/Gamecocks Under 46 (-105) at +281 with Heritage
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
Recent History
As long as David Cutcliffe has been the head coach of Duke and Bronco Mendenhall that of Virginia, the series has played out unequivocally in Virginia’s favor.
In four games against Duke since 2016, Virginia is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS.
One consistent problem for the Blue Devils in this series has been their quarterback play.
Current New York Giant Daniel Jones struggled massively when he faced Virginia.
Whereas he never threw more than two interceptions in his career against another team, he threw nine against the Hoos. He also completed only 50.7 percent of his passes along with three touchdowns against them.
Last year, the story continued with a new quarterback.
In a blowout loss that only saw 14 points from Duke, all of which coming after the team went down 27-0, Quentin Harris could muster all of 88 passing yards on 26 pass attempts.
This trend likely at least partly owes its continuity to the fact that Duke has kept its offensive coordinator the same as has Virginia its defensive coordinator.
Chase Brice
Quarterback Chase Brice has suffered a rocky start to his Duke career despite having the chance to redeem himself last week against a Boston College secondary that is expected to be very poor after ranking nearly last-place nationally in opposing passing yards in 2019.
Part of Brice’s problem is the struggles of Duke’s pass protection, as a result of which he’s been sacked five times in two games.
He’s also failing to develop chemistry with his new batch of wide receivers as evident in his completing 54.4 percent of his passes while throwing two interceptions to zero touchdowns and averaging six YPA.
Virginia Pass Defense
Secondary will be a strength of Virginia’s defense partly because it was so injury-ridden last year that more key players enter this year with more experience.
Last year’s pass numbers were affected by the injury to safety Brenton Nelson who likes to play in the slot.
Before getting injured, Darrius Bratton likewise could have started alongside current New York Jet Bryce Hall.
A strong pass rush will support Virginia’s secondary.
The Cavs return three of their top four linebackers from last season.
Bronco Mendenhall helps create havoc in a number of ways in a number of formations and he often uses his linebackers to do so.
Noah Taylor, Charles Snowden, and Zane Zandier promise to add to Chase Brice’s sack total after each one accumulated between five and seven sacks last season.
Virginia Offense vs. Duke Defense
Unlike Duke’s new quarterback, Virginia’s new quarterback is already settled into his team’s system.
That Brennan Armstrong would start was never in doubt after serving as Bryce Perkins’ understudy for two years.
He is a consistently accurate and efficient quarterback and he is capable of accruing chunk plays with his legs when he has to.
His top returning receiver will be Terrell Jana who ranked second on the team last year in amassing 886 receiving yards to go along with 74 receptions.
Duke’s pass defense has been disappointing especially since Boston College’s new transfer quarterback threw for 300 yards while completing 17 of 23 pass attempts.
UVA’s run game will be strong with leading rusher Wayne Taulapapa back. Duke is especially young and thin in the interior of its defensive line.
Virginia, with its seven returners on the offensive line plus a graduate transfer from Penn State, will own the trenches especially when UVA runs on a Duke defensive-line whose best asset is its pass rush.
Still, more experienced pass protection, the ability to get the ball out quickly in favored screen plays, and a balanced offense will combine to effectively offset the Blue Devil pass rush.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -5 (-105) with Heritage
Tennessee Volunteers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network) at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina
South Carolina Pass Attack vs. Tennessee Secondary
I foresee great trouble for South Carolina trying to move the ball downfield.
The Gamecocks start a graduate transfer from Colorado State in Colin Hill.
He won’t get to throw to the prolific but departed Bryce Edwards. Beyond Shi Smith, there’s little returning production especially since two wide receivers opted-out.
Josh Vann, with his 19 receptions and 171 yards, is the Gamecocks’ second-leading returning wide receiver.
After allowing zero touchdowns in coverage last year, former Freshman All-American Bryce Thompson will be able to contain South Carolina’s most and only threatening wide receiver.
Tennessee’s top returning player according to PFF is Shawn Shamburger at the nickel position. He also didn’t allow a touchdown in coverage last year and locked down opposing receivers in the slot
Volunteer corners receive support in coverage from Jaylen McCollough, who was named to PFF’s All-Freshman squad last season.
So we have a graduate transfer from the Mountain West debuting in a new-look offense under Mike Bobo with a thin pass-catching group contending with strong coverage from Tennessee's secondary.
Tennessee Pass Attack vs. South Carolina Secondary
Jarrett Guarantano has always been woefully inaccurate and terribly unreliable when attempting to move the ball downfield.
Among FBS quarterbacks who have attempted at least 160 passes of 10 yards or more, Guarantano ranks dead-last since 2018.
On top of his own deficiencies, Guarantano misses his top two wide receivers and top pass-catching tight end from last season.
Relative to what the Vols have to counter with, the Gamecocks look deep and redoubtable in the secondary, which will form the strength of their defense
One cornerback to look for will be Israel Mukuamu who was accorded All-SEC second-team honors last season.
Another regular starter in Jaycee Horn rejoins him as well as two returning starters at the safety position which features freshman All-American Jammie Robinson.
The Verdict
While the Gamecocks have little to rely upon offensively especially against Tennessee’s secondary, the Volunteers on offense will want to rely heavily on their rush attack.
The only defensive weakness I perceive in this game is the Gamecocks’ run defense, which South Carolina will be able to provide support for from its safeties because Guarantano lacks both the downfield ability and the returning pass-catching personnel to threaten an improving Gamecock secondary that is not without accolades.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-105) with Heritage
Parlay: Cavaliers -5 (-105) + Volunteers/Gamecocks Under 46 (-105) at +281 with Heritage
