Saturday NBA Thoughts

[SportsNut]

Since 1/1/07:

Sides/Totals : 20-13 +26.76u
1st Q: -1.78u
1st H: -0.78u
2nd H -7.45u
Team Totals : +9.91 u


7PM: LAC @ ATL

Clippers -4 -110 {3units}
Under 93 -111 Hawks team {unit}

I really like this play but you have to be cautious backing LAC on the road at the moment. Hawks IMO are in disarray they seem to have no defensive presence without Josh Smith and are just getting killed in the paint. Enter Chris Kaman and Elton Brand both playing well and both excel in back to back situations. Brand is @ 58% FG while Kaman is slightily better then 50% in these spots. For whatever reason LAC seems to play its best ball in backend games. I am all about value and we know they are 4th in 5 nites. Two things struck me (outside of Atl's 8 game slide) that is LAC played Memphis earlier in this 4th game situation and won convicingly. The other while LAC has won 6 straight in the series and was -4 /-4.5 in ATL past 2 season with similiar lineups making this line fair IMO.

I tend to lean over but think the number is tight. LAC should score in the paint but dont have much 3pt shooting where as ATL will be the opposite and there offense just peaked at 92 points yesterday...though LAC has allowed 100+ in just about every road game I still see 90 as the Hawks peak..
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[affinity]

Like the Clipper pick, bit concerned that the Clips might be a bit fatigued after playing Washington last night, but let's face facts: an injured Hawks team which also played last night on the road may not present that much of a challenge to the Clips.

Another play I have been looking at is the Stons at +5. The only thing that is holding me back is the stat that burned me the last time I bet against the Bulls: when the Bulls have lost the previous night away they have played extremely well at home (5-1). I know there are some people who want to hype this up as Ben Wallace's revenge, but I refuse to get caught up in that. Provided the Stons can keep Ben Gordon in check (which I think they can), I think the Stons not only can keep the game within the spread, but can also win.

GL

 

[SportsNut]

7:30 NJN @ Cleveland:

Very tough decision here cause this is where the loss of nenad kristic should be felt. I feel the line if anything is a 1 pt soft. What lurks in my mind is NJ being 9-1 ATS past 10 in the series and Cleveland being 2-7 SU and 17-1 ATS in backends. Even to the casual observer it appears that Cavs are about to heat up. Think I am leaning heavily to this Under though....

Under 90 -110 NJ team{1unit}
Prop: Zydrunas Ilgauskas Ov 12 pts -124 {2units}

1st H : Cavs -3.5 -110 {2units}

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Its the kind of result LA gets here that telegraphs their potential playoff hopes down the line. BOL Nut.

 

[SportsNut]

Like the Clipper pick, bit concerned that the Clips might be a bit fatigued after playing Washington last night, but let's face facts: an injured Hawks team which also played last night on the road may not present that much of a challenge to the Clips.

Another play I have been looking at is the Stons at +5. The only thing that is holding me back is the stat that burned me the last time I bet against the Bulls: when the Bulls have lost the previous night away they have played extremely well at home (5-1). I know there are some people who want to hype this up as Ben Wallace's revenge, but I refuse to get caught up in that. Provided the Stons can keep Ben Gordon in check (which I think they can), I think the Stons not only can keep the game within the spread, but can also win.

GL

I really dont buy much into fatigue as a factor. We go to the heat suspending two players over body fat requiremenets that were like 1 pct off and something like 11 and 8%. These guys are in great shape and really once the game starts it's all adrenaline. With Wash they play a fun up and down style like Phoenix which isnt like the back in the day battles of say Detriot vs NY or Eastern Conference basketball...its a loose fun type game...now obviously at times fatigue does play a role but I think the travel has more to do with it and really all LAC has done is play in Orl , Miami , Wash and Atl...all fairly short trips.. So not a concern for me especially with LAC background on backends.

I am very undecided in this game. I dont buy into the Billups loss as I think Delfino can play. However I dont like the Chi off a loss angle as you mentioned. They are so tough at home....right now still looking at this game which I may ultimately pass but I felt when healthy this game would be bout -3...so -4.5 seemed fair....GL..

 

[SportsNut]

Its the kind of result LA gets here that telegraphs their potential playoff hopes down the line. BOL Nut.

Thanks betCrimes. I think thats a great point especially on an East Coast trip where you have played fairly well and stand at only 1-2 SU. BOL bro!

 

[MX_259]

Good Luck Sports, agree about the Cav's, I think the Nets will take some hits tonight without Kristic. No call on the Clip game for me.

 

[SportsNut]

8PM Indy @ NO

You have to think NO will like to save face after that disguting game vs Det. I just think this team is bad but Indy has no right laying 10 pts..which makes me wonder who is pounding this from -7 to -10.?? The Pacers do have payback in mind after losing at home to a healthy NO.

Over 94 -109 Pacers team {2units}
1st Q NO +3 -103 {2units} ML +206 {.75u}
Over 46 -114 Indy {1u}
1st H +6.5 -101 NO {1.5u} ML +295 {1/2u}

Think I will gamble that NO gets off to a better start if anything these teams tend to fade after halftime.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks MX...I went 1st half with Cleveland.. Well 5 turnovers and JJ came to play so LAC down 9.....already not so good...

 

[SportsNut]

Utah Jazz :

+1 -110 {2units}
-2 -110 {2units}
-3 -110{2units}
-3.5 -108 {4units}

Listen I love trying to exploit bad lines and have been saying all day how this is bad . Well now its exploding and as I said I would play Utah till -5....

There is nothing to say other then Denver is getting way to much credit for having AI. They are something like 2-5 SU since the deal and were absolutely embarassed...I said last nite this line should be closer to -5...

Utah has struggled away but they are almsot always road chalk or small dogs...

 

[SportsNut]

Utah team ov106 -109 {2units}

1st Q Pistons +1.5 +103 {1.5u} ML +140{.5u}

Over 101.5 -114 Kings team {2units}

Sonics +10 -110 {4units} ML +440 {1/4u}

Feel again anything over 7 pts presents value here. GS plays no defense and while they are tough at home I think this is simply an overeaction to recent Seattle road games...

 

[spiderman]

Sportnut - what do you think of the total in tha game Sea/Gs game ?

I think if Seattle hangs around the spread, this game will go over as GS doesn't play defense, as you said, and we're looking at a 115-107 type score.

 

[touc]

Nice hit on the cavs first half SN, I had them big for the first quarter (I'm such a sucker for bets with quick outcomes).

A quick general question if I may (and whenever you have time): I was looking at the sonics game too, but, as the line has moved slightly from when you played it, is this a spot you would pay -114 juice for the +10 or instead settle for 9.5 at -104? I've been thinking of late that I pay way too much juice for not enough of an advantage at times, especially on the bigger spreads. Do you have any set guidelines on avoiding getting killed by the vig?

BOL for tonight sir!

 

[SportsNut]

I did like it in the 216 and 218 range. Now thats its above 221 I feel that off the heels of that GS/Memphis game the value has been sucked out. I really wouldnt be interested in it now. It just becomes to marginal above 220 and while I have checked I seem to recall nearly all totals above 220 falling under...plus you have key offensive weapons for both. I wouldnt play and under here but I cant see myself saying that its a cheap line..

Not sure that helps...obviously if the game goes according to GS lst one its a no-brainer. You just wonder what happens ina game after that I guess...

 

[SportsNut]

My unit size is not that big. So for me vig doesnt become much of a problem . I understand how when you start aapproaching the 250 and above play level where vig becomes a huge concern though.

Seattle is one of these tricky lines. Where it look so incredibly bad or big that it becomes an easy cover or easy loss...So in these spots and they are a personnel decision to what I say looks funny I try to avoid risk. Rather then paying some extra vig I will settle for the closing line. Here it happened that I had a better line for the same price at one of those bad books...the ones were they only offer bad lines but as a dog player can be attractive.

I am conflicted on the whole vig debate. I seem do to find searching out the best line but being a smaller player the few extra bucks goes unseen. With more at stake I think I would have to make adjustments inmy approach....

So I guess the moral of this ramble is in this situation cause of the oddity of it prefer to not pay extra vig...BOL

 

[spiderman]

I did like it in the 216 and 218 range. Now thats its above 221 I feel that off the heels of that GS/Memphis game the value has been sucked out. I really wouldnt be interested in it now. It just becomes to marginal above 220 and while I have checked I seem to recall nearly all totals above 220 falling under...plus you have key offensive weapons for both. I wouldnt play and under here but I cant see myself saying that its a cheap line..

Not sure that helps...obviously if the game goes according to GS lst one its a no-brainer. You just wonder what happens ina game after that I guess...

This does help. It's a questionable play either way because as you say, if GS is on their game, this game could sail over, but there isn't a much room for error.

Thanks so much!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

LAC arent making the playoffs. Its that simple.

 

[SportsNut]

Recap...Trying to catch up after a nice day long hangover...

Clippers -4 -110 {3units} L -3.30
Under 93 -111 Hawks team {unit} W +1.00

Under 90 -110 NJ team{1unit} L -1.10
Prop: Zydrunas Ilgauskas Ov 12 pts -124 {2units} Win +2.00
1st H : Cavs -3.5 -110 {2units} Win +2.00

Over 94 -109 Pacers team {2units} Win +2.00
1st Q NO +3 -103 {2units} ML +206 {.75u} -2.81
Over 46 -114 Indy {1u} L -1.14
1st H +6.5 -101 NO {1.5u} ML +295 {1/2u} +1.00

Utah Jazz : Win +10.00

+1 -110 {2units}
-2 -110 {2units}
-3 -110{2units}
-3.5 -108 {4units}

Utah team ov106 -109 {2units} L -2.18

1st Q Pistons +1.5 +103 {1.5u} ML +140{.5u} L -2.00

Over 101.5 -114 Kings team {2units} W+2.00

Sonics +10 -110 {4units} ML +440 {1/4u} +3.75

Sides/Totals 2-1 +10.45
1stQ -5.95
1st H +3.00
Team totals: +1.72


Since 1/1/07:

Sides/Totals : 22-14 +37.21u
1st Q: -7.72u
1st H: +2.22u
2nd H -7.45u
Team Totals : +11.63 u

Pending Sunday Nite{posted in believe's discussion thread)

1st Q ML -103 LAL {1u} Win +1.00
1st H +1 +101 LAL {1u} Loss -1.00
Under 204.5 -110 Dallas/Lakers {4u}

Thats about all no 2nd H plays...