Saturday MLB (6/30)

[reNew Orleans]

April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 76-68-2 +37.368 Units

Overall: 278-247-6 +84.392 Units
Sides: 158-146 +48.308 Units
Run Lines: 18-47 -35.922 Units
Totals: 102-55-6 +72.006 Units

Thought I was about to leave, but apparently not. gave me a little time to update this. 4-4 yesterday +3.46. Got moosed big time in Milwaukee, The Nats pen just couldn't hang on, and .5 a run short in Sea and Tor for 3 of my losses. Nearly lost SD after a 7-2 lead. Also forgot to include Thursday's loss into my records, so updated it today.

Afternoon play:

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies OVER 10.5 -111 (Sosa v. Happ)
Well "The Real Deal" proved to be exactly what everyone thought he'd be, and he got rocked. but the Mets men screwed a lot of RLs yesterday. Fishy line again... but just saw the stats on Happ in the minors in the Thoughts/Discussion thread thanks to Trout and Hile's discussion on the guy. Sosa's not been sharp and the Phils bats still swinging. Also the Phils pen should see some more action today, no confidence in that pen for me as half of them have ERAs of 6+. Don't like the ump today but hopefully he won't influence the game too much.


I think I am going to go large on the under in wash/pit game now that Bergmann and not Simontacchi is starting. It's a definite play though. Will look of the later games when I get back.

BOL to Yall Saturday :cheers:

 

[whoispittsnogle]

I fully support the nym@phi over 10.5 cuz of hile and also love the was@pit under 8 - two great pitchers and bad offense i just hope the pen doesn't eff it up.

 

[Troutman]

Love that under as well, but those teams are so unpredictable!

 

[Blue_Chip]

nym/phi over 10.5 :shake:

philly's bullpen:

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td>ERA</td> <td>W-L</td> <td>S-BS</td> <td>BA</td> <td>H</td> <td>ER</td> <td>HR</td> <td>BB</td> <td>K</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> 4.83</td> <td class="datacell"> 12-10</td> <td class="datacell"> 16-10</td> <td class="datacell"> .272</td> <td class="datacell"> 249</td> <td class="datacell"> 126</td> <td class="datacell"> 26</td> <td class="datacell"> 112</td> <td class="datacell"> 182</td></tr></tbody></table>
that 4.83 era puts the philly bp at #23 out the 30 mlb teams

 

[reNew Orleans]

pittsnogle - I would be worried more so about pitts pen, washington's pen is not bad at all, ranked 19th in the mlb but it's really the reason why they are able to stay close to teams and have won as many games as they have. even with all their starting pitching going down they put in RP into their starting rotation and they've consistantly given them 4 innings every other game. so they are bound to give up runs in 4 innings of work each time out. But both of these teams bats are in just awful, 26th and 30th in the league. good start to the over though. hope sosa doesnt just flat out dominate. gl today

trout - I am loving it, I am playing it at 8.5 but I think I have a good feel for the Nats. Ive bet on them plenty of times to figure them out and they are just in a rut without Guzman leading off. Pitt, you may never know what you are going to get but the Nats are a team that don't seem to be involved in high scoring games. idk, im not afraid to pull the trigger on the under i guess.

good info Blue_Chip, that pen's just awful right now, no other way to put it. but that clarifies it for sure haha

 

[reNew Orleans]

Alright. I've got my plays for today.

Colorado Rockies +101 (Francis v. Jennings)
We've seen this scenario before, a pitcher facing his former team. Jennings will face the Rockies for the first time since being traded to the Astros. Well the Rockies, I would think know this guy very well. Fuentes has been KILLING the Rockies but 3rd time is a charm right? Hopefully he won't be needed. I think Francis bounces back after taking a beating from the Cubs, but the Cubs did hit him well in a few prior starts. Astros have been scoring more runs lately, hit Lefties well, but Francis is not slouch.

Baltimore Orioles +122 (Burres v. Colon)
I can't believe Colon was favored by as much as he was when the lined opened. That's basically it. Fade Colon.


And the big one.

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 8.5 -127.5 (Bergmann v. Gorzelanny) (12 Units)
If I miss this by a mile, then so be it. I feel like I am repeating myself from past threads about the Nats but they just can't score right now. Gorzy faced some stiff competition in the AL but now he's facing the team with the fewest runs scored this year and 27th in BA. Even then he did pitch well vs Sea and LAA in his last two starts so he improved. Bergmann showed last week few problems but he should last more than 4 innings today. I believe he is still on a pitch count but should last atleast 5 innings and the Nats bullpen is highly underrated. You won't be needing to see much of the Pirates pen either with Gorzy, he should provide 6+ innings. The pirates did score a bunch in their series with Florida but the Fish's pen is awful in comparison to the Nats, the Nats pen keeps them in games consistently giving them 4 innings of work and that's why they give up runs because they have to pitch so many inning for guys who aren't used to it. I mean their whole starting rotation goes down and they keep the team afloat and win near half of their games, its not just the hitting that did something, the pitching had to keep them in it too, that's why I also back the Nats so often as dogs. Wind is blowing out to RF @ 7mph but its a light breeze. The ump is Miller and he is a Plus for an under today.

and some trends...

• Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.
• Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 overall.
• Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 on Grass.
• Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games following a loss.
• Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 road games.
• Under is 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 starts overall.
• Under is 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Under is 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 starts as a road underdog.
• Under is 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 road starts.
• Under is 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 starts as an underdog.

• Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 games as a favorite.
• Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-0 in Gorzelanny's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1-1 in Gorzelanny's last 7 starts overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Gorzelanny's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Gorzelanny's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Some other OVER trends but those in support of the Pitchers and UNDER is what I like. I may add more to this play, I love it.

 

[reNew Orleans]

didnt mean to be unclear about that last statment, but there are some OVER trends that may not favor this play like 6-1 OVER in last 7 meetings in Pitt, but thats a little too specific and coincidental to me. just disregard it, not many over trends at all.

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks for the Phils over bro - got all the info about Happ from the discussion thread.

GL on the remaining games.

 

[reNew Orleans]

i dont feel bad about this lost, 1/2 an inning that wont happen with bergmann the majority of the time, 95% of the time. just lost a lot of my winnings this month that was turning out to be my most profittable. rebuild tomorrow

 

[E.T.G.]

ehh tough loss with that bullshit in Pitt and agree that type of stuff prob won't happen again. Keep your head up and keep trucking

 

[Blue_Chip]

give me the under with gorzelanny & the buccos vs. bergmann & the gnats anyday (with the teams in their current state)... you can never predict a 6-run inning... oh well, col and bal looking good early on

 

[reNew Orleans]

thanks green - I mean I don't feel as if I did anything wrong betting that much on that game. I am still very confident in the reasons why I bet it and see that 2nd inning as more of a fluke than anything.

blue_chip - yea, Id pound the same bet if I was given the chance again. good thing I can cut my loses with Baltimore and Colorado, if the scores hold that is.

I'll be posting my plays for Sunday later tonight, atleast my leans. Matchbook usually doesn't have enough money floating around overnight.