Saturday lines and discussion

strongly looking at Indiana, given their home rest vs B2B spot

- Portland will be without Roy
- Portland would've been 0-8 ATS their last 8 after today but for Detroit absolutely not giving a shit at the end of their game, Por finishing with a 17-4 run to barely cover (as it is it means they're 1-7 ATS their last 8).
- Portland is 2-5 ATS playing a road game off a road ATS win this season.

- Indiana has lost 5 straight home games, but played recent opponents (superior to Por) tough. Portland minus Roy should prove just the tonic in front of hungry home fans.
- Indiana is 6-1 ATS in their 7 SU wins as a Fav this season (6-0 ATS their last 6).
 
I was at the Sac game last night and the bench looked good. I don't think the back to back is gonna effect the Kings too much as Martin, Bibby, and Moore pretty much sat out the whole 4th qtr. Nobody logged more then 33 minutes. So i'm leaning towards the OVER and possibly the Kings. I think the W's need to work out the kinks with this Webber thing, which I hate the signing of.
 
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can maggette attack the rim with reckless abandon on consecutive nights ?
he's not vince carter he'll try , that i'm sure of , but how many out of control offensive foul or running tumbling jumpshots possessions will the clippers have because of this guy ?
the ball will get worked through caveman . he worked 38 minutes in toronto .
i'm callin grind it out flat footed jumpshot misses by cave if he's tired .
offensive fouls ruin the moving flow . really crushing momentum .
that and late in the shotclock walking the ball up missing long contested jumpshots trifecta bamboozlement .
sixers really hopping on the break . thad young is young and can run ,
but then again reggie evans is an under's final thrust in the fucking of your bet ,
so who knows . dalmbert might eat the ball after he blocks it and whoops i just tripped over miller's two front teeth .
gripes iguodala will have to play both ends with full force . mags might beat him up . guy carries brass knuckles under his seat on the bench .
sam castle of extra terrestrialism makes his return landing from deep in
outer space and back into the lineup for your viewing pleasure .
that alone should make the rim wince and throw off the landing of his shot .
if this line gets pounded up enough say a couple points i might hope
for sixers stagnation and i heard the clippers are pretty good with the transition D 'an_horse'
 
and memphis hasnt really deserved this number on the total .
they have not been running as much and thier shot totals havent really been in that gun 90 + zone .
new orleans is still ranked that high defensively in points against ?
will they slaughter and drub memphis expending all that energy since they dont play next till the 12th ?
or will they save it to party ? saturday night shenanigans at home with rest upcoming ?
drub then lockdown and choke . does 105-91 seem realistic ?
 
seems like sacramento evenly distributed minutes across a broad spectrum .
with nobody logging huge minutes off a win and willing and able to run
with the warriors i may have to consider over . golden state coming off a loss .
high rev can azubuike get some love ? kickin the minutes off the porch like the damn neighbor's dog ?
webber and his headband come in and change rotations and line-ups .
that big handed freak . can i go right by you ? okay i scored you dont have to answer as you run upcourt high fivin' teamates......
what's the line ? 223.5 ? that's astronomical . but it can be done .
this could be the 123-115 game you think .'an_horse'
 
what are they tryin to trick me with that atlanta/houston game ?
the atlanta/cleveland /houston triangle of certain death ?
a mix mash of this bullshit and jalapeno that smells !
atlanta on the road is nowhere near as proficient offensively .
first glance says watch out could be 92-82 with a minute to go hopin
for fouls then rafer alston dribbles the last 22 seconds out untouched and hey lets get a drink after the game nice dunk........
 
Crap is all I see even with 100 CBB games...

Guessing Indy is about -2.5 and I simply wont back this team laying points. Portland looked terrible but they did what was important cover the spread! Roy will be Out and if Tinsley is OUT again think UNDER even with his recent limited contributions. We know Indy cant play defense despite what they ay about the 4th quarter in NY so who would you rather have Roy -less Blazers Or O'Neal and Tinsley -less Pacers...

Philly based on situation but not the spread. Tough spot 6th rod game in 9 days. Coming of a SU UPSET WIN in Tor and playing B2B. Was thinking more along the lines of -4.5 . Then again I cant understand any LAC lines on this trip...7.5 @ Boston then 10 @ Toronto...que? Have to really think about that and see how teams respond after winning SU as 10 pt dogs...

Grizzlies are terrible and playing B2B while NO returns home after a quick classic in Pho . Looked like shit in all 3 previous losses and winning vs a short handed , short rotation Suns when your desperate isnt much to brag about. Really no interest here.....

Knicks find a way to lose again. They were up like 14 at half and allowed a last second 3 to force OT and that was all she wrote! Its real ysad how they collapse every 2nd Half. Where are they going to be mentally now? B2b with OT versus a team getting 2 days rest. Milw looked solid past 2 road games in Memphis and Dallas. Redd and Yi shoud play. Mason is back . Mo Williams had two amazing games. Villanueva could be starting now. Think we are gonna see a number like -7.5 though...hope I am wrong though...

hawks played like shit and Houston playing better of late.....not interested in laying points with Houston here though. Hawks let me down tonight sowho knows what to expect. Would have to see some movement to get me interested and dont think we do...barring injury

Jazz didnt guard the 3 pt line very well IMO. Douby fucking killed them ! Jazz tend to be poor on B2Bs but they could respond after letting a close game slip away badly. Chi off a huge SU upset playing afirly well would need another scorer here. Duhon cant be counted on to shoot like that again...Gordon or Hinrich needed and we are still gonna see a DD spread here....

I really dont trust either GSW or Sac. Not crazy about the over cause I dont trust this GSW offense trying to fit Webber IN. if he kills there flow and they are off from three point land they dont score...off a bad loss though I would lean laying them...DD favs they are terrible they 5-8 range I believe they do okay....

:cheers:
 
who would you rather have Roy -less Blazers Or O'Neal and Tinsley -less Pacers...
Click to expand...

Roy has been huge for Por ever since their 17-1 run (avg at least 20+ pts per), while Tinsley & ONeal simply havent featured for Indy for quite sometime (13+ games). Yet Portland started their ATS spiral even with Roy's good play present, while Indy are a respectable 7-6 ATS with neither Tinsley or ONeal featuring hardly at all.
Port is 5-6 ATS away to the East, incl 2 OT covers, and their miracle tonight vs Detroit - that figure could easily be 3-8/2-9 ATS.


So I would rather have Indy in this situation over Port minus said players, when
- they're playing this game in Indy
- with Indy on 2 days rest, and Port playing B2B road affairs
- Indy likely laying a you-win-you-cover number.
If it was played in Portland, I'd think differently.

I do agree, thou, that Indy's 6 straight home Over streak likely comes to an end. I hate playing a side & total on the same game, so the lines for each will go a long way deciding what I do.
 
Stayed of any play yesterday. despite the big card. Today there are number of leans - Unders in Philly and NO. Pacers if Roy is out and maybe NO as well.

On Sunday it will be interesting to see the line in Spurs - Celtics game btw...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Roy has been huge for Por ever since their 17-1 run (avg at least 20+ pts per), while Tinsley & ONeal simply havent featured for Indy for quite sometime (13+ games). Yet Portland started their ATS spiral even with Roy's good play present, while Indy are a respectable 7-6 ATS with neither Tinsley or ONeal featuring hardly at all.
Port is 5-6 ATS away to the East, incl 2 OT covers, and their miracle tonight vs Detroit - that figure could easily be 3-8/2-9 ATS.


So I would rather have Indy in this situation over Port minus said players, when
- they're playing this game in Indy
- with Indy on 2 days rest, and Port playing B2B road affairs
- Indy likely laying a you-win-you-cover number.
If it was played in Portland, I'd think differently.

I do agree, thou, that Indy's 6 straight home Over streak likely comes to an end. I hate playing a side & total on the same game, so the lines for each will go a long way deciding what I do.
Click to expand...

You're posting my thoughts before I had the chance :)
 
While I agree Roy was huge during there run the key was the fact it was unexpected. Which lead to playing well and big lines. A key part was actually the Aldridge injury to me thats when they really took off. So could it happen again? Once expectations were raised towards the end of there run is when they started struggling ATS. You can see alot of close wins during that run but the spreads were lighter or they had one gigantic quarter which is unsustainable. Not much has really changed with Port except the numbers associated with them and instead of getting the breaks maybe they are going against. It didnt play out nicely but I expected Port to cover last night. It took some trickery but it happened. Simply because the number was to big.

Now I think we went from -2 to -4. Thats crazy IMO...Portland lost to these guys at home and one guy can always be replaced for a short period. For me its more about roles... Indy does have Portlands # though so anything is possible just dont think the line is accurate...I just dont buy into Indy playing defense. They have had Tinsley off and on of late going 4-7 when he doesnt play this year..and 5-18 since he first sat out a game. Remember there was talk of a benching back then?:cheers:
 
portland is scrappy. whenever you think you got these guys down, they seem to come back. they at least keep the game close, so getting pts is nice with them.
 
I hate this card.

That Portland/Indy O is tempting but it's already been pounded by the public. The sides scares me because I don't like playing games with injuries. Portland should destroy Indy in the paint. No thanks.

Everything else looks 50/50 too. :(

EDIT:

Sac +7 seems like a bargain, they can shoot the ball as well as GS, 7 seems like a lot. Only play that sticks out.
 
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