We disagree here.
First off disagreements are good. They creat discussion which only helps both of us.
According to the ESPN announcers Miami practice was focused solely on defense for the first time all year because they finally had everyone somewhat healthy. If Pat Riley made it a point of emphasis I don't see them forgetting about it a day later. (Maybe in a week tho..)
Didn't watch the game, but I certainly take your word that they said Miami was working on their D. They need to. So I'm going to presume that the Heat worked on their "defense" during the 4 off days they had. Off those 4 days off they came out and gave up 126 to the Bulls. Only the Sonics gave up close to that # against the Bulls. Otherwise the Bulls have only crossed the 110 mark 3 times all year not including the Heat game.
Maybe they were rusty off of so much time off? Well they gave up 98 to the Blazers who have recently put up 90 @BOS, 99 @NJN, 93 @TOR in REG, 88 @CHI in REG and 90 @MIN. 99 would be a season high on the road for the Blazers if it wasn't for the fact that they've played defensiveless teams in UTA, DEN and MEM. So I'd say the 98 would be a pretty big # for the Blazers, certainly above normal standards for their road games. So if that's what Miami is capable off after working on their defense consider me unconcened.
Second, the Knicks only played 4 games without Marbury and look at the teams they played.. Washington x2, NJ and Detroit. They only went over 100 twice. With Washington and NJ both being high-paced running teams. And lets not exclude JCraw going 6-7 and and 6-10 from 3 in the two games over 100 -- wont happen again, the Heat don't need to help on Randolph or Curry! For one, I would argue the sample size is too small.. but second. Miami is not a running team. If the Knicks barely scratch the surface of 100 against Washington and NJ how can they be expected to hit 100 tomorrow on a B2B against a Miami team that will feed Shaq early and often.
The Knicks have played 15 games this year without Marbury seeing any game action and those are the games that I collected my data from. Beyond that saying WAS, NJ, and DET are "high-paced running teams" would be completely false. The Pistons rank 30th in pace while the Wiz and Nets are tied for 21st in the league. Meanwhile the Heat are 14th in the league, certainly not quick but faster paced than the previously mentioned teams, and they'd be the lowest ranked team in terms of deffensive efficiency among the mention teams at 25th.
In a recent games for the Knicks on a B2B they scored 111 against the Nets who are a slower paced team and more efficient defensive squad than the Heat. And yes that game was on the road.
Oh, and lets not forget .. no gimmes for Randolph and Curry tomorrow. Shaq and Haslem are great interior defenders. Also, I have a hard time believing the Heat will score after they left so much out on the court tonight. (They're old!)
Curry didn't have much trouble against Shaq earlier this year going for 19 points on 7/12 shooting. Randolph didn't play in the game, but Shaq isn't the defender he used to be. Lots of big bodies in this game, but none that can play a lick of D. That fact that "they're old" only leads more to an over play. The first thing they're going to lose effort in is playing D.
I'm not even considering playing the over at this point. I'm just trying to illustrate why the line is where it is. I'll be the first to wish you good luck if you play the under, but I certainly wouldn't bet it with the assumption that the Heat are going to hold somebody under 90 points. With the Knicks on 4/5 it's completely possible that they come out completely flat similar to the results that occurred on 11/17 @DEN. I'm just not sure that the Heat have the team that can come out and win the 1st half by 18 deflating any hopes of the Knicks and killing the over.
