Saturday Keyvius needs to step it up discussion

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Gyno

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Sampson needs a strong outing after posting an 8.03 ERA over his last three starts, during which opposing hitters batted .404 against him. He threw 100 pitches over four innings with five runs allowed during a no-decision vs. Detroit on Monday.

Hasn't gone more than 6 in any start, at least 2 walks in every start.





Leans:
Brewers TT ov
 
He sucks

Leans from the BOL open:
COL +204
CIN +125
LAD +110
TB -115
MIN +135
BAL +100
BOS +180
 
Oh boy,

I like Yanks tomorrow. Hate liking all this chalk but it's been hitting lately.

Wisler has been terrible, Severino is a stud. Wisler never goes long so that means at least 3+ innings of BP.


Will probably be able to get -1 at about -145
 
From my experience with baseball there is going to be a time where a lot of this chalk stops winning. These bottom barrel teams start throwing rookies out there and some of this kids are quietly good. They also play with no fear and with a nothing to lose attitude.

So in my humble opinion be careful falling in love with chalk, these shit teams love to play spoiler. Happens every year. Should get some great dog prices come soon. Like +250 or so and those will offer tremendous value.
 
But there are also teams that don't give a shit anymore and make stupid mistakes in the field. It goes both ways
 
when betting a -200 team you have to win more than 67% of the time. Even the bad teams win 35%.
 
Just started to look. Tampa has been very strong at home on Saturday for years.
 
Tampa has played a season high 10 games without recording a 2+ run win.

Tampa is 7-3 SU in their L10 home Game 2's off a Game 1 loss.

--------

KCR started 2015 going 4-2 SU in road Game 2's vs. AL opponents. They've gone 3-7 SU in their L10.
 
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Rusin is actually good on 6+. He has lost 9 in a row on the road and has a terrible night ERA.
Lester is playing on a very good day of the week 13-5 and is on his favorite rest 4 2.53 ERA.
It will be difficult not to fade Anaheim who have a fairly miserable road pitcher and appear to have lost it.
I do not understand the spread in Minn. If Houston does not get back their shortstop it just seems crazy
NY seems automatic.
Lynn and Vogelsong are both on the wrong day rests. Lynn on 4 is 3-6 with a 3.96 ERA
Vogelsong on 4 2.08 ERA on 5 4.15
Drew is 4-1 lifetime on 6+. He has had some poor games 4.25 ERA but the norm is good
He has won 9 in a row at home and is 16-4 last 20. I believe the RL is 13-3 with it not covering vs Tillman, Cueto and Gonzalez of Texas
 
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Hutch at home is an auto play.

StL is 48-72 o-u on the season, but only 2 of their last 10 games have gone under. Both teams just saw opposing pitchers on 8/15. Vogel looked bad in his last start vs Pit and Lynn has a 1.95 WHIP in his L3 starts. Like the over even with depleted lineups.
 
Kelly has pitched very well L3 starts. Line seems a bit ridiculous even with deGroms day numbers
 
Blazer ump in Pitt. Last 2 starts with Happ were very good in 2014 and 13. 2 in 2011 are not shown at Baseball-Referance and might have been bad. Blazer is mostly a chalk ump
 
Mia 2 unders in L11 road games
Wash 2 unders in L17 home games
both teams saw opposing pitcher last series - Span being out again hurts but have to ride this over train
 
C-MAN said:
Hutch at home is an auto play.

StL is 48-72 o-u on the season, but only 2 of their last 10 games have gone under. Both teams just saw opposing pitchers on 8/15. Vogel looked bad in his last start vs Pit and Lynn has a 1.95 WHIP in his L3 starts. Like the over even with depleted lineups.
Click to expand...
Like the over but Lean Vogelsong in the bounceback
 
Sea is 4-1 in Iwakuma road starts this year. Since returning in July the team is 7-3 overall when he starts. Jeff is capable of throwing a gem, but 4 of his L5 starts have been real bad.
 
I get what has been said about Boston but Kelly on 4 6.11 ERA
In the day 6.23 ERA.
Tumpane 15-7 for home teams 14-5 for home chalk. Will parlay Mets first 5 with something and would not get involved with Boston here.
 
C-MAN said:
I hope you are correct for my Pirates sake. They are doing everything in their power to try and catch StL. Need some help from SF this weekend.
Click to expand...
How about trashing Colorado. Sounds good to me so far
 
Atl is 4-0 in Wislers home starts this year. He is not great, neither is the team, but I think Atl and Bos could both surprise today. This line has been jumping around a bit too, which I find interesting.
 
Tampa last 3 years at home on Saturday
28-7
ODORIZZI is 0-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.727.
 
Texas angle
PEREZ is 12-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)PEREZ is 10-1 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
 

<tbody>
[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]BOSTON is 6-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]KELLY is 13-3 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]KELLY is 16-6 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]

</tbody>

Still going with Mets first 5
 
C-MAN said:
Atl is 4-0 in Wislers home starts this year. He is not great, neither is the team, but I think Atl and Bos could both surprise today. This line has been jumping around a bit too, which I find interesting.
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Really have to look at the over here
 
Astros have restricted their L10 opponents to 3 runs or less playing AL rules. Between 1992 & 2014 (296 completed team seasons) this feat was surpassed by only 6 teams (avg. of 1 every 49.33), with a longest streak of 13 games (twice).
 
tuck321 said:
I get what has been said about Boston but Kelly on 4 6.11 ERA
In the day 6.23 ERA.
Tumpane 15-7 for home teams 14-5 for home chalk. Will parlay Mets first 5 with something and would not get involved with Boston here.
Click to expand...


Big papi doubtful with a heel. David wright out for rest
 
I like the tigers TT over 3.5 today awAy.. side note Craig Monroe is coked out of his mind on the tigers pre game
 
Craig Monroe is a big mouth...I don't know who irritates me more - Rod Allen or Craig Monroe
 
Not a good spot for the jays. Second game back home from a long RT is where a team really struggles. Will keep me off their TT over
 
tuck321 said:
Just started to look. Tampa has been very strong at home on Saturday for years.
Click to expand...

great home team, know how to play to that park so well

C-MAN said:
Kelly has pitched very well L3 starts. Line seems a bit ridiculous even with deGroms day numbers
Click to expand...

He has seemed to harness his stuff a little and gets back to the NL, which will help. Still a bit nervous about BOS closing games and the win last night in extras makes this one seem unlikely

C-MAN said:
Mia 2 unders in L11 road games
Wash 2 unders in L17 home games
both teams saw opposing pitcher last series - Span being out again hurts but have to ride this over train
Click to expand...

Span hasn't contributed anything this season, meanwhile Michael Taylor was hitting HRs in every game last week it seemed

tuck321 said:

<tbody>
[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]BOSTON is 6-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]KELLY is 13-3 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]KELLY is 16-6 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]

</tbody>

Still going with Mets first 5
Click to expand...

deGrom off maybe his worst start ever should help

Canes1 said:
Hanley out as well
Click to expand...

what a disaster he's been
 
how about minn tt over 3.5?
frier off no no with over 130 pitches last outing....
bc also had stat about Houston not conceding over 3 runs in like 10 straight including last nite....
 
number2 said:
how about minn tt over 3.5?
frier off no no with over 130 pitches last outing....
bc also had stat about Houston not conceding over 3 runs in like 10 straight including last nite....
Click to expand...

Pelfrey is a pitch-to-contact guy so that's worrisome, but i think that's my closest play right now even with the line drop from last night
 
Lefties are hitting .357 with nine homers off Wisler (5-4, 5.43) compared to .265 with 29 of Wisler's 41 strikeouts for righties. The right-hander is coming off his toughest of 12 outings since making his major league debut June 19, as he allowed seven runs and four homers over 2 2-3 innings of Sunday's 9-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs.
 
nbafan88 said:
Lefties are hitting .357 with nine homers off Wisler (5-4, 5.43) compared to .265 with 29 of Wisler's 41 strikeouts for righties. The right-hander is coming off his toughest of 12 outings since making his major league debut June 19, as he allowed seven runs and four homers over 2 2-3 innings of Sunday's 9-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs.
Click to expand...

very different park for Wisler today, but NYY does certainly try for the HR
 
Active Astros 1-24 lifetime against Pelfrey.....plus Fiers 1st start off the no-hitter? I'll nibble the hot Twins +115.
 
thanks for ur heads up play on series total over (alburna) ....I got 22.5 for 1 unit....gonna ride the over on this series
 
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