2 Parlays July 29: Dodgers Bounce Back in a Big Way
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis & Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Jameson Taillon tonight.
Taillon is at a disadvantage because he just faced the Cardinals.
Cardinals hitters will be extra-prepared today because of their stronger level of familiarity with Taillon.
Taillon's Arsenal
Primarily, Taillon throws a fastball, cutter, curveball, sweeper, sinker.
It shouldn't impress anyone that he throws a lot of pitches, because quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
The three pitches that he throws most often all yield a slugging rate of .491 or worse.
His pitches lack impressive movement or velocity.
Moreover, as heat maps show, they often land in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Cardinals Lineup
St. Louis's batters should be expected to thrive against Taillon because they match up so well against him.
They rank third with a .462 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Watch out especially for Nolan Arenado, who is 7-for-11 with a double against him.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis.
His decline this year is well-known but indistinguishable in its severity from Taillon's.
What distinguishes Wainwright from Taillon is the former's matchup advantage.
The Cubs rank 24th with a .405 slugging rate against Wainwright's pitches from righties.
Metrics show that Wainwright performs well against tests that are softer in terms of matchup.
While he struggled against the Cubs in his last start, they were hot at the time of that start, whereas they are not hot now.
Who Starts for Texas?
Martin Perez starts for the Rangers tonight.
Perez enters tonight's game having allowed a combined total of 13 runs in his last three starts.
While two of those three opponents were tough matchups, tonight's opponent will pose a similar challenge.
San Diego ranks seventh with a .473 slugging rate against Perez's primary pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Yu Darvish starts for the Padres tonight.
In his last start, he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings to Pittsburgh.
This start is worrisome because he resembled his mid-June form in which he allowed four or more runs weekly.
Texas's Lineup
The Rangers' lineup is in a good bounce-back spot.
They've established a habit of scoring eight or more runs in a game following one in which they scored below five.
Plus, they rank fourth in slugging against Darvish's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -113 & Rangers-Padres over 9 at +100 at +277 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati.
As evident in his 7.20 ERA, he is having a terrible season and is someone who should regularly be faded especially when going against a strong lineup.
His most recent starts show that he also enters today's game in poor form, having shown no sign of improvement.
After allowing a combined total of nine runs in 5.4 innings to the Brewers and Giants, he most recently allowed three runs in four innings to Arizona while benefitting from a high strand rate.
The Dodgers will be a tougher test.
As one would expect, he always struggles against stronger lineups.
When he faced the Rangers on April 25, he allowed six earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Then, he faced the Dodgers on June 6.
In that start, he allowed seven earned runs in 3.2 innings.
Likewise, he faced the Braves on June 23 and allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings.
Weaver's Arsenal
Weaver throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
These pitches combine to make up over 98 percent of his arsenal.
Heat maps show his awful tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do heavier damage.
This tendency is especially true in his two most frequent pitches, the fastball and changeup.
But opponents love facing all of his pitches.
Three of his pitches yield a slugging rate of over .600 while the other yields a .533 slugging rate.
Dodgers Lineup
L.A.'s outlook is especially strong today because it ranks third with a .477 slugging rate against Weaver's pitches from righties.
This stat is impressive because they normally face versions of these pitches thrown by better pitchers than Weaver.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Emmet Sheehan starts for L.A. today.
Sheehan, primarily, throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
His outlook today is rather positive because the Reds rank 18th, just below average, in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
I like the Dodgers because they have the stronger lineup with their matchup advantage.
Total
But the game will soar over the posted total because the Reds will add some scoring too.
Sheehan regularly yields significant run totals, as when he allowed eight runs in Texas in his last start.
The Reds, especially on the road, aren't as strong, but weaker lineups have also hurt him.
Best Bet: Parlay Dodgers RL at -112 & Over 10.5 at -103 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis & Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Jameson Taillon tonight.
Taillon is at a disadvantage because he just faced the Cardinals.
Cardinals hitters will be extra-prepared today because of their stronger level of familiarity with Taillon.
Taillon's Arsenal
Primarily, Taillon throws a fastball, cutter, curveball, sweeper, sinker.
It shouldn't impress anyone that he throws a lot of pitches, because quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
The three pitches that he throws most often all yield a slugging rate of .491 or worse.
His pitches lack impressive movement or velocity.
Moreover, as heat maps show, they often land in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Cardinals Lineup
St. Louis's batters should be expected to thrive against Taillon because they match up so well against him.
They rank third with a .462 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Watch out especially for Nolan Arenado, who is 7-for-11 with a double against him.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis.
His decline this year is well-known but indistinguishable in its severity from Taillon's.
What distinguishes Wainwright from Taillon is the former's matchup advantage.
The Cubs rank 24th with a .405 slugging rate against Wainwright's pitches from righties.
Metrics show that Wainwright performs well against tests that are softer in terms of matchup.
While he struggled against the Cubs in his last start, they were hot at the time of that start, whereas they are not hot now.
Who Starts for Texas?
Martin Perez starts for the Rangers tonight.
Perez enters tonight's game having allowed a combined total of 13 runs in his last three starts.
While two of those three opponents were tough matchups, tonight's opponent will pose a similar challenge.
San Diego ranks seventh with a .473 slugging rate against Perez's primary pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Yu Darvish starts for the Padres tonight.
In his last start, he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings to Pittsburgh.
This start is worrisome because he resembled his mid-June form in which he allowed four or more runs weekly.
Texas's Lineup
The Rangers' lineup is in a good bounce-back spot.
They've established a habit of scoring eight or more runs in a game following one in which they scored below five.
Plus, they rank fourth in slugging against Darvish's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -113 & Rangers-Padres over 9 at +100 at +277 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati.
As evident in his 7.20 ERA, he is having a terrible season and is someone who should regularly be faded especially when going against a strong lineup.
His most recent starts show that he also enters today's game in poor form, having shown no sign of improvement.
After allowing a combined total of nine runs in 5.4 innings to the Brewers and Giants, he most recently allowed three runs in four innings to Arizona while benefitting from a high strand rate.
The Dodgers will be a tougher test.
As one would expect, he always struggles against stronger lineups.
When he faced the Rangers on April 25, he allowed six earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Then, he faced the Dodgers on June 6.
In that start, he allowed seven earned runs in 3.2 innings.
Likewise, he faced the Braves on June 23 and allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings.
Weaver's Arsenal
Weaver throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
These pitches combine to make up over 98 percent of his arsenal.
Heat maps show his awful tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do heavier damage.
This tendency is especially true in his two most frequent pitches, the fastball and changeup.
But opponents love facing all of his pitches.
Three of his pitches yield a slugging rate of over .600 while the other yields a .533 slugging rate.
Dodgers Lineup
L.A.'s outlook is especially strong today because it ranks third with a .477 slugging rate against Weaver's pitches from righties.
This stat is impressive because they normally face versions of these pitches thrown by better pitchers than Weaver.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Emmet Sheehan starts for L.A. today.
Sheehan, primarily, throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
His outlook today is rather positive because the Reds rank 18th, just below average, in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
I like the Dodgers because they have the stronger lineup with their matchup advantage.
Total
But the game will soar over the posted total because the Reds will add some scoring too.
Sheehan regularly yields significant run totals, as when he allowed eight runs in Texas in his last start.
The Reds, especially on the road, aren't as strong, but weaker lineups have also hurt him.
Best Bet: Parlay Dodgers RL at -112 & Over 10.5 at -103 at +273 odds with BetOnline
