2 Parlays July 8: Don't Mess With Angry Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami & Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Who Starts for the Phillies?
Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today.
Suarez throws a sinker, curveball, fastball, changeup, and cutter.
One should generally expect Suarez to struggle because, in terms of velocity, spin, and movement, his stuff is unimpressive.
For example, his fastball places in the 29th percentile in velocity and in the 2nd percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is relatively easy for batters to track the location of and to keep up with.
Because the deficiencies of his fastball are generally shared by his other pitches, it's no wonder that he fails to get batters to whiff on or chase his pitches at a high rate.
Hitters are able to be selective, which means they can rather easily wait for Suarez to throw a pitch in a more hittable location in the strike zone.
Miami's Lineup
Miami's hitting outlook is rather positive today because it ranks well above-average in slugging .442 against Suarez's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
In his last start, Garrett allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Cardinals.
Expect him to return to his norm, which is to allow two earned runs or fewer, which is what he did four times in a row before facing the Cardinals.
Moreover, he always bounces back strongly at home after a poor outing in his previous home start.
For example, after getting blown out by the Braves at home, he locked down a Cincinnati lineup that ranks sixth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Miami's Good Spot
The Marlins will be extra focused today after yesterday's bitter loss.
They are 5-0 in the game following a one-run loss.
Two In-Form Pitchers
One reason why the Brewers-Reds total is too high is that the total does not account for each starting pitcher's form.
Cincinnati's Luke Weaver allowed two earned runs in five innings in his last start, and Milwaukee's Colin Rea allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts.
Matchup Dive
Luke Weaver must enjoy facing Milwaukee: only Christian Yelich has managed an extra-base hit off him.
Colin Rea's outlook is likewise strong: the Reds slug .404 against his pitches from righties outside of Cincinnati.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -103 & Brewers-Reds Under 9.5 at -110 at +276 odds with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston & Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Saturday July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for Oakland?
Oakland starts Paul Blackburn today.
Blackburn throws a sinker, slider, fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup.
While Blackburn throws a lot of pitches, he has trouble finding ones to rely on because his stuff lacks quality in itself.
For example, his fastball places in the 11th percentile in velocity and in the 36th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that it is rather easy for batters to keep up with and track the location of this pitch.
Moreover, its movement is very average.
Boston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, Boston's outlook is strong because it enjoys excellent form.
The Red Sox have scored five runs or more in five of their last seven games.
In a similar vein, they scored seven runs or more in three of those games.
Justin Turner, for example, is a menace right now: he has accrued four straight two-hit games.
His and his teammates' outlook is likewise positive today because they match up well against Blackburn.
They rank ninth in slugging .430 against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for the Red Sox today.
Paxton has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
The one exception took place on the road.
But at home, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all three starts.
Moreover, the A's rank 25th in slugging .401 against his pitches from lefties.
Situational Spot
It's tempting to play the Royals-Guardians "under" because both starting pitchers, Brady Singer for the Royals and Gavin Williams for the Guardians, recently thrived against the lineup that they'll face today.
But it must be difficult especially for Singer to produce the same positive results against a lineup extra familiar with him because he pretty much only throws two pitches.
His sinker and slider make up 93.7 percent of his arsenal.
Matchup Dive
Moreover, the matchup favors Cleveland's lineup.
The Royals' lineup ranks 29th in slugging .345 against Williams' pitches from righties.
In addition to ranking more highly against Singer's pitches, Cleveland's lineup matches up better against Singer because it boasts strong track records against him.
Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan all slug .600 or better in at least ten at-bats facing Singer.
Team Form
Kansas City is also simply worth fading: the Royals have lost five in a row and are 0-5 on their current road stand.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at -223 & Guardians ML at -165 at +133 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami & Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
- Ranger Suarez's arsenal is unimpressive
- Braxton Garrett is reliable in general but especially at home
- Both Luke Weaver and Colin Rea are pitching well, and both enjoy strong matchup opportunities today
Who Starts for the Phillies?
Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today.
Suarez throws a sinker, curveball, fastball, changeup, and cutter.
One should generally expect Suarez to struggle because, in terms of velocity, spin, and movement, his stuff is unimpressive.
For example, his fastball places in the 29th percentile in velocity and in the 2nd percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is relatively easy for batters to track the location of and to keep up with.
Because the deficiencies of his fastball are generally shared by his other pitches, it's no wonder that he fails to get batters to whiff on or chase his pitches at a high rate.
Hitters are able to be selective, which means they can rather easily wait for Suarez to throw a pitch in a more hittable location in the strike zone.
Miami's Lineup
Miami's hitting outlook is rather positive today because it ranks well above-average in slugging .442 against Suarez's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
In his last start, Garrett allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Cardinals.
Expect him to return to his norm, which is to allow two earned runs or fewer, which is what he did four times in a row before facing the Cardinals.
Moreover, he always bounces back strongly at home after a poor outing in his previous home start.
For example, after getting blown out by the Braves at home, he locked down a Cincinnati lineup that ranks sixth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Miami's Good Spot
The Marlins will be extra focused today after yesterday's bitter loss.
They are 5-0 in the game following a one-run loss.
Two In-Form Pitchers
One reason why the Brewers-Reds total is too high is that the total does not account for each starting pitcher's form.
Cincinnati's Luke Weaver allowed two earned runs in five innings in his last start, and Milwaukee's Colin Rea allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts.
Matchup Dive
Luke Weaver must enjoy facing Milwaukee: only Christian Yelich has managed an extra-base hit off him.
Colin Rea's outlook is likewise strong: the Reds slug .404 against his pitches from righties outside of Cincinnati.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -103 & Brewers-Reds Under 9.5 at -110 at +276 odds with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston & Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Saturday July 8, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Boston matches up well against Paul Blackburn
- Unlike Cleveland's opponent, Boston shows strong hitting form
- Brady Singer lacks the variety in his arsenal to be reliable in quick rematch situations
Who Starts for Oakland?
Oakland starts Paul Blackburn today.
Blackburn throws a sinker, slider, fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup.
While Blackburn throws a lot of pitches, he has trouble finding ones to rely on because his stuff lacks quality in itself.
For example, his fastball places in the 11th percentile in velocity and in the 36th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that it is rather easy for batters to keep up with and track the location of this pitch.
Moreover, its movement is very average.
Boston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, Boston's outlook is strong because it enjoys excellent form.
The Red Sox have scored five runs or more in five of their last seven games.
In a similar vein, they scored seven runs or more in three of those games.
Justin Turner, for example, is a menace right now: he has accrued four straight two-hit games.
His and his teammates' outlook is likewise positive today because they match up well against Blackburn.
They rank ninth in slugging .430 against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for the Red Sox today.
Paxton has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
The one exception took place on the road.
But at home, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all three starts.
Moreover, the A's rank 25th in slugging .401 against his pitches from lefties.
Situational Spot
It's tempting to play the Royals-Guardians "under" because both starting pitchers, Brady Singer for the Royals and Gavin Williams for the Guardians, recently thrived against the lineup that they'll face today.
But it must be difficult especially for Singer to produce the same positive results against a lineup extra familiar with him because he pretty much only throws two pitches.
His sinker and slider make up 93.7 percent of his arsenal.
Matchup Dive
Moreover, the matchup favors Cleveland's lineup.
The Royals' lineup ranks 29th in slugging .345 against Williams' pitches from righties.
In addition to ranking more highly against Singer's pitches, Cleveland's lineup matches up better against Singer because it boasts strong track records against him.
Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan all slug .600 or better in at least ten at-bats facing Singer.
Team Form
Kansas City is also simply worth fading: the Royals have lost five in a row and are 0-5 on their current road stand.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at -223 & Guardians ML at -165 at +133 odds with BetOnline
