2 Parlays June 1: Rays and Cubs Favored for Good Reason
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle & Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the Rays?
Tyler Glasnow starts for Tampa Bay tonight.
Glasnow's 4.45 ERA does not do him justice.
This statistic is inflated by a .328 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is much too high.
His BABIP is slated to drop in view of his ability to generate soft contact and to strike out batters.
In a similar vein, because he's only had six starts on the season, his ERA is unfairly distorted by a single bad start, which took place against Baltimore.
Seattle's Lineup
Glasnow's outlook is strong today because he matches up well against Seattle's lineup.
He throws three pitches, a fastball, slider, and curveball.
Seattle ranks tenth-to-last in slugging below .400 against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners tonight.
Kirby has dominated many weaker tests and tougher lineups in bad spots, with one example of the latter being a Cardinals team that tends to fall flat after achieving a strong scoring output.
Conversely, Kirby has struggled against greater challenges, such as the Angels.
Like the Angels, Tampa Bay matches up well against Kirby.
The Rays rank first in slugging .482 against Kirby's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Guardians?
Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland today.
There are two versions of Bibee: the one who starts at home and the one who starts away from the Guardian faithful.
At home, Bibee yields a 2.38 ERA, and Cleveland is 4-2 with +1.1 units in his home starts.
Outside of Cleveland, Bibee yields a 5.68 ERA, and Cleveland is 1-4 with -3 units in his road starts.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs today.
In games played outside of extremely hitters-friendly London, Stroman has two earned runs or fewer in seven straight games.
He even held the Rays to a single hit in nine innings.
Matchups
Bibee is a strong fly ball-inducing pitcher.
This is problematic for him today because the Cubs' OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .95 higher against fly ball-inducing pitchers than against ground ball-inducing ones.
Conversely, Cleveland matches up poorly against Stroman, who induces ground balls at a uniquely high rate.
Cleveland slugs an atrocious .327 against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -116 & Cubs ML at -137 at +222 odds with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York & Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for the Mets?
Justin Verlander starts for New York today.
Verlander is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" has hit in seven of his ten starts so far.
But the "under" hits at an even higher rate in his home starts: in these starts, the "under" is 4-1.
Verlander's stronger tendency to thrive at home explains this latter trend: whereas his ERA is 5.67 on the road, his home ERA is 2.70.
He succeeds at home even against teams that match up well with him on paper, such as Toronto.
Verlander's Pitching Arsenal
There is a lot to like about Verlander's repertoire.
His fastball has an extreme amount of spin, which makes it difficult for batters to track its location.
He likes to elevate this pitch, giving it the appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath it.
With his other pitches, especially his slider and curveball, he keeps hitters off-balance by utilizing their strong velocity differential relative to his fastball.
In addition to using these other pitches to create a strong change of pace relative to his fastball, he uses them to change the batter's eye level.
Whereas he likes to elevate his fastball, he gladly buries his slider and curveball.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Anthony DeSclafani starts for the Giants today.
DeSclafani throws a slider, sinker, fastball, changeup, and curveball.
With these pitches, he matches up well against a Mets lineup that is below-average in slugging .407 against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks?
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona tonight.
Outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field, Nelson has been superb on the road, where his ERA is 3.07.
Despite facing tough matchups, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any other road start.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Tyler Anderson starts for L.A. today.
The fact that Anderson has yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 3.50 in five of his last six starts shows that he is performing very well individually.
He places good spin on his favorite pitch to throw, his fastball, and nibbles especially with his change-up, which is his second-favorite pitch to throw.
In doing these things, he induces a lot of soft contact.
The Total
The total for this game is drastically too high, in view of the venue and each pitcher's ability to keep even tough matchups in check.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants/Mets under 8.5 at -105 & Diamondbacks/Angels under 10 at -115 at +265 odds with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle & Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
- Tampa Bay's lineup will be a much tougher test for George Kirby than Seattle's. will be for Tyler Glasnow
- Marcus Stroman is consistently solid
- The Cubs' lineup will exploit Tanner Bibee's fly ball-inducing style
Who Starts for the Rays?
Tyler Glasnow starts for Tampa Bay tonight.
Glasnow's 4.45 ERA does not do him justice.
This statistic is inflated by a .328 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is much too high.
His BABIP is slated to drop in view of his ability to generate soft contact and to strike out batters.
In a similar vein, because he's only had six starts on the season, his ERA is unfairly distorted by a single bad start, which took place against Baltimore.
Seattle's Lineup
Glasnow's outlook is strong today because he matches up well against Seattle's lineup.
He throws three pitches, a fastball, slider, and curveball.
Seattle ranks tenth-to-last in slugging below .400 against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners tonight.
Kirby has dominated many weaker tests and tougher lineups in bad spots, with one example of the latter being a Cardinals team that tends to fall flat after achieving a strong scoring output.
Conversely, Kirby has struggled against greater challenges, such as the Angels.
Like the Angels, Tampa Bay matches up well against Kirby.
The Rays rank first in slugging .482 against Kirby's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Guardians?
Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland today.
There are two versions of Bibee: the one who starts at home and the one who starts away from the Guardian faithful.
At home, Bibee yields a 2.38 ERA, and Cleveland is 4-2 with +1.1 units in his home starts.
Outside of Cleveland, Bibee yields a 5.68 ERA, and Cleveland is 1-4 with -3 units in his road starts.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs today.
In games played outside of extremely hitters-friendly London, Stroman has two earned runs or fewer in seven straight games.
He even held the Rays to a single hit in nine innings.
Matchups
Bibee is a strong fly ball-inducing pitcher.
This is problematic for him today because the Cubs' OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .95 higher against fly ball-inducing pitchers than against ground ball-inducing ones.
Conversely, Cleveland matches up poorly against Stroman, who induces ground balls at a uniquely high rate.
Cleveland slugs an atrocious .327 against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -116 & Cubs ML at -137 at +222 odds with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York & Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
- Justin Verlander is very reliable at home
- Anthony DeSclafani matches up well against the Mets
- The total seems absurdly high in Anaheim
Who Starts for the Mets?
Justin Verlander starts for New York today.
Verlander is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" has hit in seven of his ten starts so far.
But the "under" hits at an even higher rate in his home starts: in these starts, the "under" is 4-1.
Verlander's stronger tendency to thrive at home explains this latter trend: whereas his ERA is 5.67 on the road, his home ERA is 2.70.
He succeeds at home even against teams that match up well with him on paper, such as Toronto.
Verlander's Pitching Arsenal
There is a lot to like about Verlander's repertoire.
His fastball has an extreme amount of spin, which makes it difficult for batters to track its location.
He likes to elevate this pitch, giving it the appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath it.
With his other pitches, especially his slider and curveball, he keeps hitters off-balance by utilizing their strong velocity differential relative to his fastball.
In addition to using these other pitches to create a strong change of pace relative to his fastball, he uses them to change the batter's eye level.
Whereas he likes to elevate his fastball, he gladly buries his slider and curveball.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Anthony DeSclafani starts for the Giants today.
DeSclafani throws a slider, sinker, fastball, changeup, and curveball.
With these pitches, he matches up well against a Mets lineup that is below-average in slugging .407 against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks?
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona tonight.
Outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field, Nelson has been superb on the road, where his ERA is 3.07.
Despite facing tough matchups, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any other road start.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Tyler Anderson starts for L.A. today.
The fact that Anderson has yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 3.50 in five of his last six starts shows that he is performing very well individually.
He places good spin on his favorite pitch to throw, his fastball, and nibbles especially with his change-up, which is his second-favorite pitch to throw.
In doing these things, he induces a lot of soft contact.
The Total
The total for this game is drastically too high, in view of the venue and each pitcher's ability to keep even tough matchups in check.
Best Bet: Parlay Giants/Mets under 8.5 at -105 & Diamondbacks/Angels under 10 at -115 at +265 odds with BetOnline
