Saturday Discussion

[Austintx_05]

Well I wanted to get an early start...hopefully Clipps goes Under and allows me to only take a 1 unit loss tonight. I swear to God the Pistons tanked that game tonight. I know this team shaves points and some times I wonder where this "offense" comes from. Give me Larry over Flip anyday of the week.

Ok....now onto Saturday

1. Washington/Milwaukee Under 228 Milwaukee has had an unbelievable Over streak. 8 in a row including the FT help in Cleveland. 228 is the number for Milwaukee at home tommorrow night and I like this Over streak to end here. I thoght this line should be in the 210 range and will bite on 228. Curious if it will sit at 228 or drop.

2. Hornets/Mavs Under 181. Hopefully this line rises, but I'm not sure it does. With the loss of Paul, I think NO has a lot of problems scoring in this game. Dallas is strong defensively at home and I don't see NO cacking 74 points. I see a 101-74 game.


3.

 

[scourge]

I really agree with #3, lol

in regards to the Wizards/Bucks total it looks like it opened up at 225 in vegas but Pinny is showing 228 as the opening number and as of right now its been moved down to 227.5 looks like it might go down but both these teams have been lights out lately.

I was at the Magic/Zards game tonight and it was more than amazing to watch the total just keep climbing as the game moved progressed. They were able to get the Magic running and gunning and after seeing that I'm kinda thinking that they Bucks are going to enjoy the open tempo (escpecially after a stifling/ugly game in Cleveland) and this total could be reached with 3 minutes left in the 4th.

Its a crap shoot right now as to when the Wizards Over streak is going to end.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Saturday, every road team is playing in a B2B situation. The last/only time thats happened previously this season, it was a 7-2 to Under day. The only 2 teams to produce Overs both days were MIL & WAS, so no suprise there. Teams off Overs headed into Sat. are MIL v WAS, CHC, CLE, CHA, ORL, POR & TOR.

So immediately my thoughts turn to Indy/Cha given CHA is off their 3 OT 230/100-100 game (the same situation DET & NYK played off Friday, in delivering their Unders) with the slight concern after all their recent Overs Indy has now racked up enough unders to have people forget about that previous Over stretch.

Other Over getters who could go Under are

CLE@CHC (except CLE produce more road points, but both teams are coming off Overs today, so the *public* should fancy this Over)

TOR@MEM, and POR@UTH.

I intend to do a bit of digging into that CHC-CLE game. I doubt Donyell Marshall is going to hit 70% of his 3 attempts, and 80% of his 2 attempts, in this game.

 

[JPicks]

Memphis/Toronto Total should be interesting. I was actually hoping for some value to take the over, but it's not to be. Memphis has given up 98+ in 8 straight games while Toronto has scored 97+ in 7 striaght. Big one was last night against the Bulls who are a bit stingy on D. So if Memphis is favored by 5 then I'd expect an over here. Of course last last 5 times Memphis has been favored they are 1-4 SU, inlcuding being favored by 5.5 and 6. Interesting game to say the least.

 

[gpcyan3]

I doubt Donyell Marshall is going to hit 70% of his 3 attempts, and 80% of his 2 attempts, in this game.

Well said BC. Crazy high percentage of 3balls by Marshall tonight stepped on my parade. That's a game I will also be looking into and will take a close look at that under total.

 

[SportsNut]

Saturday, every road team is playing in a B2B situation. The last/only time thats happened previously this season, it was a 7-2 to Under day. The only 2 teams to produce Overs both days were MIL & WAS, so no suprise there. Teams off Overs headed into Sat. are MIL v WAS, CHC, CLE, CHA, ORL, POR & TOR.

So immediately my thoughts turn to Indy/Cha given CHA is off their 3 OT 230/100-100 game (the same situation DET & NYK played off Friday, in delivering their Unders) with the slight concern after all their recent Overs Indy has now racked up enough unders to have people forget about that previous Over stretch.

Other Over getters who could go Under are

CLE@CHC (except CLE produce more road points, but both teams are coming off Overs today, so the *public* should fancy this Over)

TOR@MEM, and POR@UTH.

I intend to do a bit of digging into that CHC-CLE game. I doubt Donyell Marshall is going to hit 70% of his 3 attempts, and 80% of his 2 attempts, in this game.

Think alot of these teams are also 4th in 5 nites....would expect Indy -9.5 / 186 , like the Chicago UNDER idea , cautious in general as Memphis has said they will open it up with the new coach ...what that means exactly I dont know.....

 

[JPicks]

Ok. I'm shocked the Bobcats are getting 11. What am I missing?
Supposedly O'Neal has pneumonia. Seems like play 38 minutes on the front end of a b2b with that would be a bit draining. I know all the Bobcats had significant minutes, but these guys are all 23 or so. Okafor with 51 minutes alone. Indiana playing some good D lately combined with the old 230/100/100 plus OT makes the under look attractive. Jumpers hitting front iron with some dead legs. Just thinking aloud here.


Billups out two weeks.

 

[tuck321]

The last 15 times Dallas was playing first game of a b-b the under is 11-4. My database only shows 4 home games all 4 went under. Dallas plays at Denver the next day. I doubt Dallas reaches 100. NO is their faithful doormat. Would picture NO middle 70s and Dallas a low 90 . GL

 

[JPicks]

I could see the Hornets with a backdoor cover with the Mavs playing Dallas on Sunday.

 

[tuck321]

JP it is 4 in 5 and triple ot. That being said with Indiana's unique style a first quarter bet on Bobcats is likely. If you feel like amusing yourself check Indiana at home as a 4 point fav or better in the first quarter this year. I lost one time with Minn in this spot and thought it had to have been a misprint.

 

[Coppsguy]

I respectfully disagree on the Wiz/Bucks under. Wiz have had at least 100 in like 10 straight. Bucks offense is awesome at home. Neither team plays a lick of D. (well i know my Bucks dont) I can see 119-115

 

[Austintx_05]

I respectfully disagree on the Wiz/Bucks under. Wiz have had at least 100 in like 10 straight. Bucks offense is awesome at home. Neither team plays a lick of D. (well i know my Bucks dont) I can see 119-115

Well playing this game Under would not be a big play for me. Just 1 unit. I just think Milwaukee wins this game SU resulting in an Under.

Clippers have now won 2 straight. Maggette is back and it looks like they are playing the way they are supposed to. I guess I still need to see more from this team to see if there is any consistancy, but I initially liked them -3 tonight, but layed off because they have burned me even on short lines. Just something I wanted to note.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Austin, my concern for the MIL-WAS game is that they have home-and-away games against each other, so I can see the sequence go something like this

High first game total sucks in a few Under bets, it goes (way?) Over

Total adjusted slightly for the 2nd game, people now converted to not being afraid of the big number, and both teams finally record their 1st Under in awhile. With a 3 day gap between games, that may just lay the ground for them to come out flat in the rematch after a potentially high scoring 1st game.

 

[tuck321]

Bobcats 29-25 at Indiana first quarter. Anyone else bet it?

 

[SportsNut]

wish I saw that went Indy 1st Q....