Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
01:05 PM
901San Diego Padres - Game #1B. Snell -L-1½
+128		-124O 9
-116
902Philadelphia Phillies - Game #1T. Walker -R+1 Markets+1½
-148		+114U 9
-104
02:20 PM
923Boston Red SoxJ. Paxton -L-106
924Chicago CubsM. Stroman -R+1 Markets-104
03:07 PM
925Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R+1½
-160		+138O 8
+100
926Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R+1 Markets-1½
+140		-150U 8
-120
04:05 PM
913Cleveland GuardiansG. Williams -R+1½
-145		+139O 9
-115
914Texas RangersA. Heaney -L+1 Markets-1½
+125		-152U 9
-105
07:05 PM
905San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R-1½
+114		-145O 8½
-110
906Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Oviedo -R+1 Markets+1½
-134		+133U 8½
-110
07:05 PM
927Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1½
-190		+103O 8½
-120
928Baltimore OriolesK. Gibson -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-113U 8½
+100
07:10 PM
907Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+1½
-205		+103O 10
+100
908Cincinnati RedsA. Abbott -L+1 Markets-1½
+175		-113U 10
-120
07:15 PM
911Los Angeles DodgersT. Gonsolin -R+1½
-183		+101O 9
-105
912New York MetsK. Senga -R+1 Markets-1½
+163		-111U 9
-115
07:15 PM
929Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R+1½
+135		+254O 8½
-105
930Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R+1 Markets-1½
-155		-290U 8½
-115
08:10 PM
931New York YankeesC. Schmidt -R-1½
-110		-159O 12
+100
932Colorado RockiesC. Anderson -R+1 Markets+1½
-110		+146U 12
-120
09:07 PM
919Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L-1½
+125		-135O 8
-110
920Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L+1 Markets+1½
-145		+124U 8
-110
09:40 PM
921Detroit TigersM. Lorenzen -R+1½
-125		+178O 7½
+100
922Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R+1 Markets-1½
+105		-194U 7½
-120
 
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I didn’t mention this yesterday but the reason I didn’t post any out props was I like pitchers to be on their normal routine. Don’t love their 1st game back from a longer than usual break. There were 1-2 yesterday I liked but they were in the -160ish range and wasn’t willing to pay that when I’m not as comfortable capping this particular start. Not saying there can’t be any this weekend but if I don’t post any this is why. More likely I’ll play k props but I just started looking at stuff.
 
I’d like to play the Ff under at wrigley but looks like they calling for rain and don’t wanna be involved if it gets started then both pitchers get yanked cause a long delay. Hate these games with chances of storms! Other than that I’d think it a pretty safe bet both paxton and stroman pitch well, both have solid histories on extra rest, both been fantastic this year.
 
Not sure bout the other day games, lean Ff under in Philly but have concerns with the early east start for Snell and walker hasn’t pitched in 10 days or so.

Never like playing Gallen with early starts in east but not sure this one qualifies as it little later than ones he has struggled most in. Him getting plus money is super tempting, the Ff under with him and Bassitt looks solid but +105 for snakes Ff what I like best.
 
2daBank said:
Not sure bout the other day games, lean Ff under in Philly but have concerns with the early east start for Snell and walker hasn’t pitched in 10 days or so.

Never like playing Gallen with early starts in east but not sure this one qualifies as it little later than ones he has struggled most in. Him getting plus money is super tempting, the Ff under with him and Bassitt looks solid but +105 for snakes Ff what I like best.
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Thought Philly decided to go Ranger G1?
 
Ryno14 said:
Thought Philly decided to go Ranger G1?
Click to expand...

Oh you could be right. Actually I see it is switched now. Don’t think I’m gonna make it across river before that start, didn’t plan it out that way since I thought it was walker. I hate earliest start of day anyways!
 
Ryno14 said:
No idea - the tweets I saw yesterday made it seem like the game last night wouldn’t happen and then it did
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I’ll actually be in Chicago Monday - Thursday for a golf tournament. May try and get back to Wrigley for a Nats game
 
Ryno14 said:
No idea - the tweets I saw yesterday made it seem like the game last night wouldn’t happen and then it did
Click to expand...

Didn’t realize you wernt there! I was a little annoyed at you last night watching my guy Gallo hit all his props and win while I was wondering why they were playing! Lol. Guess it evened out cause I left balty total alone also for fear of rain and despite delay they played.

If it anywhere like here in stl the past several days it pretty much impossible to tell, it humid as shit and storms just pop up from out of nowhere and nobody knows where they gonna hit. When they got taken off field in stl last night I was 10 miles away (give or take) and wasnt raining at all. Eventually it did but they coulda got 5 innings in easy had they been just a few miles different. Shit super annoying.
 
Interesting total drop in texas, I think we see runs there. Cle rookie Williams has faced kc 2x, a’s, and Braves, he wasn’t bad vs atl but did give up 4 runs. Facing rangers lineup will be much closer to Braves than the other garbage teams, kc got 3 off him the 2nd time and a’s plated 4 in his debut. Texas bats woke up big in the second half of last nights game, I think we can expect them to score here. Better to play Rangers Ff ov 2.5 or bring along Heaney and rangers pen and play game over 8.5? Cle usually not a high k team so I’d think they can cause Heaney some issues. Not sure there a wrong way to play over here? I like rangers to score 3+ off the youngster, I think cle scores 2+ off Heaney, you wouidnt expect cle pen to get blown up again but how many times will rangers pen pitch shutouts? Not many.
 
So a few hours ago the hour by hour weather app said like 80% in Chicago every hour 1-4, now they have pushed it back to 2 and down to 40%!! Like I was saying it really hard to predict this weather. Really like that Ff under If they play.
 
Fading the public dogs would have gone 3-1 last night, probably losing money not betting against them this weekend but just so many question marks with all the wwird rests and motivations after the break.

For today just the the 4pm Eastern games the pub dogs are Philly and Snakes, not surprised with either really but taking a stab on Snell in some way has my interest. Doubt I go against Gallen after the Jays won last night but again, strange rest for him.

As of now the night dogs are Nats, Dodgers and Detroit but those will change as the day goes on.
 
Braves Ff tt ov 2.5 -120 is a no doubter for me. If lynn can make it 5 innings without giving up 3 runs to these guys so be it.
 
Think you can play the cincy game a number of ways, torn between just taking reds for game and paying the small price or playing the Ff -.5 at +105. I like milw Ff tt under 2.5 also but that is little steep.
 
KJ said:
Fading the public dogs would have gone 3-1 last night, probably losing money not betting against them this weekend but just so many question marks with all the wwird rests and motivations after the break.

For today just the the 4pm Eastern games the pub dogs are Philly and Snakes, not surprised with either really but taking a stab on Snell in some way has my interest. Doubt I go against Gallen after the Jays won last night but again, strange rest for him.

As of now the night dogs are Nats, Dodgers and Detroit but those will change as the day goes on.
Click to expand...

Tribe looks public no?
 
Fwiw before the pitching change Gausman was a pretty big favorite over AZ, the whole thing got flipped after Bassitt was announced
 
So now they pretty much have called the rain off in Chicago and now they calling for it during the 3 hours the reds supposed to play. This shit is really aggravating me!
 
Looks like the weather report bailed me out in Chicago, kept me off a loss. Lol.

Just went across river, this all I played for now.

Rangers Ff tt ov 2.5
Braves Ff tt ov 2.5
Reds Ff-.5/ gm ml
Valdez un 2.5 earned runs
 
Gallen just ain’t the same guy when you get him in day games east of the Mississippi. Unusual week for him also but this gotta be at least the 3rd time a day game on wrong side the Mississippi he hasn’t been sharp.
 
These fuckers just don’t give out walk totals on Senga, anytime he not on 5 days rest I’m looking for them but nope. His control is such a issue and he hasn’t pitched in a min. I don’t know how to really take advantage of it tho? He could still fan 7 although I wouldn’t bet on it, the under has way too much juice for me to consider tho. Maybe under 16.5 outs, I’d think 5 innings on this rest vs a solid lineup a pretty good bet.
 
Yo Kirby outs total? Crazy juiced but has to have a great chance of going 6 vs this lineup no?
 
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Inspekdah said:
Yo Kirby out? Crazy juiced but has to have a great chance of going 6 vs this lineup no?
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Just got home a few minutes ago, going to update numbers but can say I know Detroit is still a heavily favored dog

Is Kirby out? Or did you mean outs?
 
KJ said:
Just got home a few minutes ago, going to update numbers but can say I know Detroit is still a heavily favored dog

Is Kirby out? Or did you mean outs?
Click to expand...

Sorry, Kirby Outs Over.

But more I dig in not in love with his work off big rest. He hasn’t pitched in 9 days. And last year home vs Detroit barely went 3.
 
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Pub dogs this evening

Padres, Pirates, Royals, Dodgers, all 60% plus

Tigers has actually flipped spek, Mariners are now getting heavily bet and it's still 3 hours before first pitch. Outs might be way to play it, had to assume after the Tigs won last night the M's would be used in parlays all over today
 
Completely separate from the dogs, looking at moderate RLM really only applies to Reds and Dodgers, but relatively significantly taking more bets than Brew and Mets. Both make sense (LAD and Abbott are going to be heavily bet, we know that) and it's really only moved against them by 10-15 cents from open

Think in that case I don't really know why it would move against either of those starting pitchers at all
 
Inspekdah said:
Sorry, Kirby Outs Over.

But more I dig in not in love with his work off big rest. He hasn’t pitched in 9 days. And last year home vs Detroit barely went 3.
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Interesting wager DK has available is o1.5 walks at +235, he's only done it once this season against the Rays on 7/1 but his last game was 6/25 so 6 days rest

Might be worth a small stab
 
Tough to feel really confident in it when he's only had 10 walks in 17 games started but there's at least an angle and he did pitch in the ASG so he's at least had a quirky schedule this week
 
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Took Stros -.5 first 7 -115, got the advantage if both starters get pulled at that point easily

Everything says under but can't lay a minus u1.5 for the Angels first 5, doesn't take much for that to fail. Probably should just take Stros for the game but -150 is too steep. Might be worth a look live if it's tied or if they're down one later in the game, complete mismatch in the pen
 
So much for Kirby tonight

Just got destroyed...worth the watch after he gave up a run in the ASG, not sure if there are records kept by young dude after giving one up and going the whole 9 yards, need to see if it affects him long term or only a start or two
 
No need to discuss that 7the inning in Anaheim, it's worth disposing of asap

0-0, great!

5-6, seriously fall off this flat earth now
 
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