Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 8 Sat 2023

01:05 PM
971Chicago CubsD. Smyly -L+1½
-135		+165O 8
-110
972New York YankeesG. Cole -R+1 Markets-1½
+115		-179U 8
-110
01:10 PM
961Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
-115		-195O 8½
+105
962Detroit TigersM. Manning -R+1 Markets+1½
-105		+179U 8½
-125
02:10 PM
963Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R+1½
-190		+111O 8½
-110
964Minnesota TwinsS. Gray -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-121U 8½
-110
04:05 PM
975Texas RangersA. Heaney -L-1½
-110		-168O 10
-110
976Washington NationalsJ. Irvin -R+1 Markets+1½
-110		+155U 10
-110
04:10 PM
953Philadelphia PhilliesR. Suarez -L-103O 8
-110
954Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1 Markets-107U 8
-110
04:10 PM
957Cincinnati RedsL. Weaver -R+1½
-180		+113O 9½
-114
958Milwaukee BrewersC. Rea -R+1 Markets-1½
+160		-123U 9½
-106
04:10 PM
965Oakland AthleticsP. Blackburn -R+1½
-105		+196O 9½
-105
966Boston Red SoxJ. Paxton -L+1 Markets-1½
-115		-215U 9½
-115
04:10 PM
967Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1½
-140		+152O 8½
-105
968Cleveland GuardiansG. Williams -R+1 Markets-1½
+120		-165U 8½
-115
07:15 PM
969Seattle MarinersB. Woo -R+1½
-180		+124O 7½
+100
970Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L+1 Markets-1½
+160		-134U 7½
-120
07:15 PM
977Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R-1½
+110		-145O 8½
-110
978Tampa Bay RaysT. Bradley -R+1 Markets+1½
-130		+134U 8½
-110
10:10 PM
959New York MetsD. Peterson -L+1½
-145		+150O 8
-115
960San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+1 Markets-1½
+125		-163U 8
-105
 
Singer and Williams both very recently shut out the lineup they‘ll face today. Surely that won’t repeat itself. My money is on Williams to be better for reasons of matchup and pitching arsenal
 
I could see a good case for the over in Miami. Five different Philly batters slug .800 or better vs Garrett but now Garrett is facing them in Miami, in what i take to be a good spot, and one can still make more arguments against the point about the five Philly batters. Miami can do damage to Suarez for sure. I prefer Miami as they’ve proven to turn it up after bitter or close losses
 
I have a hunch Toronto flops in an early game after last night‘s scoring marathon. Gausman will be Gausman. Thinking Tigers RL and under but not much real reasoning for this
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Boston‘s been lights out but the total there seems too high plus you have Paxton pitching. I think Boston wins 5-2 or 6-2
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Seems like a good reason to look first five

With bullpens so shity outside of a handful and the extra innings shenanigans I can no longer stomach full game unders if it's simply based on the starter
 
KJ said:
Seems like a good reason to look first five

With bullpens so shity outside of a handful and the extra innings shenanigans I can no longer stomach full game unders if it's simply based on the starter
Click to expand...
It‘s like betting an NFL team full-game knowing that some random quarterback will take over for the entire second half
 
KJ said:
Seems like a good reason to look first five

With bullpens so shity outside of a handful and the extra innings shenanigans I can no longer stomach full game unders if it's simply based on the starter
Click to expand...

I dunno if I like Blackburn enough not to give up 4ish. Might need 5 shutout innings from paxton and if possible that not enough? Maybe As Ff under but I just preferred paxton k’s, I expected they hang 7.5, was pleasantly surprised with 6.5 at reasonable price
 
Also played

Reds/milw Ff ov 5.5

I been treating weaver pretty much the same as I been doing with waino and Liberatore, taking Ff team totals against him every chance I get! Just look at dudes numbers, the only good start I recall him having all year was against the cardinals (freaking shocker! Lol). Dude gets knocked around in every start. Only problem here is I really don’t trust the brewers offense, nothing at all wrong w playing their tt over as I am fully expecting them to give me at least 3 runs. I just didn’t see the point in leaving reds offense out the party as I think they can hit Rea, unlike weaved Rea does have some solid outings under his belt but for the most part he can be had. Between these 2 starters just seems really likely at least one of them gets tagged for 4 runs or so and I don’t expect either to be clean thru 5.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno if I like Blackburn enough not to give up 4ish. Might need 5 shutout innings from paxton and if possible that not enough? Maybe As Ff under but I just preferred paxton k’s, I expected they hang 7.5, was pleasantly surprised with 6.5 at reasonable price
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Was just in response to his comment about the total. I doubt I play anything there
 
Early on the only public dog is the Reds today

Crazy to not see 3-4 of them at least on a full slate of games
 
Havnt did all the evening games yet but did make a few plays,

Detmers ov 5.5 k’s -130 (looks like he ticking up but that where I got). This number crazy low, do ppl not realize what this kid been doing? He has been on fire the past month including a scoreless 7 inning performance against these dodgers (8k’s). He has hit this number in 11 of 15 starts and been smashing it lately with 5 straight games w 8+ k’s! Guys w 14% swinging strike rates don’t generally get this number, every time they do I’m playing it!
 
KJ said:
Early on the only public dog is the Reds today

Crazy to not see 3-4 of them at least on a full slate of games
Click to expand...

I started liking reds before most but I dunno why the hell anyone would back them when weaver starts? It’s freaking nuts they won all his June starts! Look at the runs they had to score late in those games to come back and win! Lol. Hence any type of over only thing that makes sense to me, I wouldn’t wanna have to count on reds to come back on milw pen. This a series milw taking seriously, it pretty clear the division is between these 2. They play a bunch next few weeks so that exciting, right back at it in cincy after the asb!
 
2daBank said:
I started liking reds before most but I dunno why the hell anyone would back them when weaver starts? It’s freaking nuts they won all his June starts! Look at the runs they had to score late in those games to come back and win! Lol. Hence any type of over only thing that makes sense to me, I wouldn’t wanna have to count on reds to come back on milw pen. This a series milw taking seriously, it pretty clear the division is between these 2. They play a bunch next few weeks so that exciting, right back at it in cincy after the asb!
Click to expand...
They were big time pub dogs w/Abbott starting last night

The four yesterday were Tigers, Reds (both lost) O's and Mets (both won in extras)

Didn't play yesterday but those have been doing pretty well. Have a feeling once mid-August is here there won't be many of them
 
I played this Also but I’ll be 1st to admit it could go all kinds of sideways!

Taj Bradley ov 5.5 k’s +125., way it moving there a good chance it come down to 4.5 at some point but honestly I don’t think it matters and rather have the plus money. If he don’t strike out 6 he not striking out 5 either, he will most likely get blown up. He has not been good his last 2 starts and now facing the toughest lineup in baseball, it could def go real bad. Im trusting he gets it figured back out, before these last 2 horrific starts he had looked the best I’ve seen him the 2 prior to those! This a total coin flip that will either look really dumb or really smart, no in between, lol. If any team can get him right it rays, if he right he can easily fan a bunch vs a Braves team that not shy bout swinging any missing. Of course if he doesn’t get it fixed Braves will have 6-7 runs up and he be out the game by the 3rd inning! +125 was worth it to me, rays kinda in need of a big performance here as they sliding a bit into the break, let’s see if Taj has the goods.
 
KJ said:
They were big time pub dogs w/Abbott starting last night

The four yesterday were Tigers, Reds (both lost) O's and Mets (both won in extras)

Didn't play yesterday but those have been doing pretty well. Have a feeling once mid-August is here there won't be many of them
Click to expand...

I was very tempted by reds yesterday, luckily there were couple out props I liked enough not to bother with sides. I woulda prob played Abbott too but he was -200, didn’t trust him that much!
 
Could only have the Reds over 9.5 today as Weaver is shaky and expect some better ABs from the Reds vs Rea who they saw last month. Kind of like the KC/Cle to go under again...these teams can't hit much....

Bonus horse pick: You'll never get a better price on #6 Silver Knott (6-1 ML) than you will today in Race 10 at Belmont. Appleby/Godophin horse that was fav at BC Juv Turf and lost by a nose...square price IMO.
 
Pirates are now a pretty significant public dog, didn't have numbers for that game earlier

Also of not is some significant RLM in M's/Stros, line is down 30+ cents from open with a bunch on the Stros

Kinda like that first 5 over in Milwaukee as well
 
Marsski said:
Could only have the Reds over 9.5 today as Weaver is shaky and expect some better ABs from the Reds vs Rea who they saw last month. Kind of like the KC/Cle to go under again...these teams can't hit much....

Bonus horse pick: You'll never get a better price on #6 Silver Knott (6-1 ML) than you will today in Race 10 at Belmont. Appleby/Godophin horse that was fav at BC Juv Turf and lost by a nose...square price IMO.
Click to expand...

I usually do weaver just like waino/Liberatore and play everyone Ff team total over wken they face him. I just don’t like milw offense much so decided to take the ov 5.5 for both teams. figure at least one these pitchers get smacked around if not both. I’ll be super annoyed at myself if mile gets 3 but it stays under 5.5. I did same thing w waino last start and cards didbt give me anything but luckily fish hit the Ff on their own as they crushed waino, lol. Sadly I think that last chance we get to fade him for awhile, can’t seem them running him back out anytime soon. At least we still got Liberatore who is hot garbage!!
 
KJ said:
Pirates are now a pretty significant public dog, didn't have numbers for that game earlier

Also of not is some significant RLM in M's/Stros, line is down 30+ cents from open with a bunch on the Stros

Kinda like that first 5 over in Milwaukee as well
Click to expand...

I was super tempted to play seattle. I almost never fade Valdez but dunno if he right at moment? Seattle starting to click a bit.
 
I looked more at keller k’s than side there, I couldn’t bring myself to do it tho. His swinging strike rate is unusually low for a guy who punches out as many he does.
 
KJ said:
Gotta be something about Valdez, never see his lines sink like that
Click to expand...

I was shocked cards got 4 off him then they skip him a start immediately after? I woulda just chalked it up to a bad start but then the extra rest has to make ya wonder?

I still thought they were too fast bringing woo up but he seems to be figuring it out. He is still super heavy fastball tho, little worried some his success been competition level.

Where it sits now I couldn’t play seattle, +120 or higher I thought bout. Now I think the sneaky play would be 1st 5 over. Both pens really good but I could see either one these starters giving a few up, woo just cause Stros catch a few his heaters, Valdez if he not right and seattle offense seems to be coming around a bit. 3.5 is very doable, I actually might go back over to play that!
 
twinkie13 said:
Heaney getting touched early
Click to expand...

I really thought bout nats but they been such a train wreck lately. Hindsight and all the over made sense cause I def thought they could get to Heaney, maybe not to this extent but for sure saw some runs coming. Nats pretty good at making contact, if Heaney not punching guys out things like this can happen to him.
 
I can’t believe paxton didn’t punch out Noda with a 0-2 count, that dude punches out like 42% the time! I sure hope that one doesn’t come back to bite me! If he ends w 6 k’s thar be why, lol,
 
There the runs you can always count on that scrub weaver giving up. Now need 1 more not to be kicking myself for both teams over instead of just milw Ff, lol.
 
I’m still freaking baffled paxton only has 1 k! I never woulda guessed that in a million years.
 
The real goofy thing is paxton could pitch 8-9 innings at this rate and he still not gonna sniff the k’s. I never would have believed that,
 
2daBank said:
I really thought bout nats but they been such a train wreck lately. Hindsight and all the over made sense cause I def thought they could get to Heaney, maybe not to this extent but for sure saw some runs coming. Nats pretty good at making contact, if Heaney not punching guys out things like this can happen to him.
Click to expand...
Yea I’m kicking myself too.
 
Inspekdah said:
Anything good for tonight?
Click to expand...

I know you don’t like k’s as much but detmers ov 5.5 is short I think, that said it has more juice than when I bet him at -130.

I didn’t see any out props I was particularly fond of.

Think there merit to the Ff over in Houston. Only 3.5 isn’t a lot to ask, we don’t know if Valdez is 100% or not, way line has come down kinda feel like there is def a question about that. Woo hasn’t been bad but I still don’t think he quite big league ready, he is so fastball heavy, feel like his recent success has a lot to do with who he been facing. Not sure he gonna shut down stros throwing over 75% heat. Just seems like a lot of ways we can get to 4 runs there. Either pitcher could potentially struggle and if not 2-2 doesn’t seem unreasonable.
 
if I knew Valdez was healthy 17.5 -140 would be pound town but just the fact they set him there I think says gotta be some concern.
 
Got the Ff over In houston. I thought taj was gonna cash k’s essy, 4 after 2 inning then the prick doesn’t punch anyone out next 3 innings.
 
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