Card so far, I might play more but this a good start and I feel like it really strong!
Eury perez ov 5.5 k’s +120.. I been talking bout this kid and betting him on and off since his 1st start. He is the real deal and seems to be getting better every time out!! I know Braves are straight up raking, this will be a test but good pitching beats hitting! Kid has allowed 1 run all of June! That a overall line of 5 starts, 28 innings 1 run! , 34 k’s w 5 walks!! He allowed 1 home run for the run he allowed, that Braves bread and butter, he not giving up a bunch of bombs!! MAybe Braves can get him to look slightly more human but long as he goes 5 innings he gonna punch out 6+ easy here. Early on he had a few games where he got guys down 0-2 and struggled to punch them out. He has started to figure that out and trusting his put away pitches! His swinging strike rate is up to 14% on the season and 3 of his last 4 starts he has been well over 15%, he had a 21% swinging strike game against jays! This a great bet against the free swinging Braves. I dunno if they get a hr or 2 off him but that won’t get in the way of him pitching 5-6 innings and striking out 6+, plus money here a freaking gift imo.
Fish Ff ml +135.. see above. If fish can get me a few off morton they can easily be ahead when Perez leaves this game. Atl 14–1 last 15 but Miami isn’t far behind w a 11-4 record over that time. +135 w the more talented pitcher to be ahead after 5 well worth a bet. If you rather take the +.5 nothing wrong with that. Solid chance this a pitchers duel tied thru 5, I’m just greedy!
Reds Ff tt un 2.5 -105…. I bet nobody saw this coming! I lead the charge for reds offense for a week or so before they busted off that long win streak (shameless pat on the back but ya gotta admit I was all over this! Lol). That said the lineup not only guys in this game playing their best ball!! Wacha has looked fantastic! Don’t go buying into those silly analytics that try to dismiss his incredibly good season as some kind of “luck”, not the 1st time they have claimed this with him never taking the time to admit their metrics are vastly overrated as a predictive tool. Of course the fact they do get treated as the be all end all by many no imagination having gamblers is the very reason we get value being against that opinion!! Fact is dude knows how to pitch and has always had one the better change ups in the game. This season he has shed any inconsistency issues, after a slow start to the season he is on 9 straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or fewer! He has a long career against cincy and in this park, unlike other cards pitchers he was fantastic pitching in the reds band box. I have little doubt he can limit a hot reds team to less than 3 runs thru 5 innings, -105 a fantastic price, he has a era below 1 in 3 day starts this year, he should be ready to go while the young reds probably went out drinking to celebrate the come from behind victory last night, maturity a thing! Another play I think has insane value today, let’s try and forget I generally suck w the earliest start games! Not here! Lol
Stros ml +115.. back to the well, cashed them yesterday and once again tough to pass up plus money on these guys as much I like Eovaldi and rangers. Stros are a championship team who been in the mix for the last 5+ years, they know what it takes and know these important games for them to get back into race. Love Eovaldi but he has started showing a few kinks in the armor lately imo, he hasn’t been bad but he has started to struggle thru some early innings, giving up a few runs early and more importantly having some inefficient innings that put a drain on his ability to go deep. He has figured it out for most part in these games but it also had him more vulnerable at end his starts and coming out sooner than the days of him handing it off to the pen only needing 5-6 outs! Remember we have a significant edge in pens so this a big deal! I been on rangers bandwagon a ton but this how baseball works, when they earn the respect to get lines like this and ppl laying it against the World champs it’s time to pivot! Eovaldi has also had his fair share of struggles wit some guys in this lineup, while I’m ok with houston being down a run or 2 when starters leave (like yesterday) there a chance the youngster Hunter brown gets to Stros superior pen with a lead, another play I think cashes at way higher clip than price suggest!
I gotta wrap this up and still have several more plays, you can tell I havnt talked bout this In a week!! Lmao! Just posting the last few plays and I’ll talk bout in little bit!
Nats/Philly ff un4.5
Nats ff ml +155
Giants Ff tt ov 1.5
Giants Ff ml +145
That “all” for the day card. Slightly aggressive I know but damn If I didn’t see a ton of value in all these!! Just one of those days!
