Saturday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Sep 11 Sat 2021

1:20 PM
951	San Francisco GiantsK. Gausman -R		-191
952	Chicago CubsZ. Davies -R		+175

3:07 PM
963	Texas RangersK. Allard -L	+1½ -125	+157	O 8½ -105
964	Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L	-1½ +105	-171	U 8½ -115

5:10 PM
977	Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R	-1½ -105	-165	O 8½ -120
978	Cleveland IndiansZ. Plesac -R	+1½ -115	+152	U 8½ +100

5:35 PM
955	Washington NationalsJ. Gray -R	-1½ +120	-119	O 9 -105
956	Pittsburgh PiratesW. Crowe -R	+1½ -140	+109	U 9 -115

6:10 PM
969	Los Angeles AngelsJ. Suarez -L	+1½ +105	+208	O 9 -105
970	Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R	-1½ -125	-230	U 9 -115

6:10 PM
973	Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R	+1½ -160	+120	O 9½ -110
974	Minnesota TwinsM. Pineda -R	-1½ +140	-130	U 9½ -110

6:15 PM
957	Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R	-1½ +120	-118	O 8½ -115
958	St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R	+1½ -140	+108	U 8½ -105

6:20 PM
959	Miami MarlinsE. Hernandez -R	+1½ -110	+192	O 8½ +100
960	Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R	-1½ -110	-210	U 8½ -120

6:40 PM
979	New York YankeesC. Kluber -R	-1½ +125	-128	O 8 -110
980	New York MetsT. Walker -R	+1½ -145	+118	U 8 -110

8:10 PM
961	San Diego PadresC. Paddack -R	+1½ -120	+173	O 8 -110
962	Los Angeles DodgersW. Buehler -R	-1½ +100	-188	U 8 -110

 

[GWarner27]

leans:
allard
singer
WALKERT

 

[GWarner27]

really have no idea how Irvin can be favored like this considering how bad he's been and then blaming the hip issue, OAK bullpen depth showing up well but it's still not a good bullpen as we speak and will have to cover innings since it's unlikely Irvin gets a QS. I'm trying to make my plays less about betting an opposing SP to blow up, though i think there's a high risk of this from Irvin today, so it's really about Allard. He is a good arm and was a good prospect, but so is everyone at this level. Allard's Ks are not great, similar pitching profile to Irvin really, but he hasn't been getting smoked of late.

Behind Allard is a pen who has been better despite unloading the good ones for prospects at the deadline. Dunning probably isn't going b2b, but Santana looks like the only one not available from the normal pen. That means Allard 5-6 if he's good then Sborz/Patton/Martin/Cotton/Barlow in some order to get the remaining outs.

OAK lineup is stronger, but it's not that impressive besides Marte/Olson/Chapman 2-4 while TEX has some hitters in what looks to be a more balanced lineup albeit an inferior one. Only giving TEX 38% chance to win here and that seems low

 

[GWarner27]

allard scratched of course

 

[GWarner27]

first thought when considering KC is the likelihood Barlow goes b3b, doubt that happens since they're out of the race. So if singer continues his hot streak, i wonder who gets the last three outs or the toughest ones. Not sure anybody else is unavailable, Staumont likely closes tonight with a combination of other serviceable but not elite arms.

MIN used Colome b4b which is insanity in 2021, but he had two days off before pitching last night and we have a similar story with MIN. Nobody unavailable, closer likely there so that helps MIN a bit. Pineda is extremely unlikely to offer length, which means that slight advantage of having a pitch-to-contact closer available comes with danger of many more arms being involved to possibly screw this one up.

I don't mind the KC lineup, Lopez is hot and the lack of power is non-traditional in 2021. That's not a good thing, MIN is built for HR only and do have many more threats from 2-5 in the lineup then also Sano at 7. Singer's had two short outings of 3 vs MIN this season, the best one was 5.2 2r and the loss so that's tough to read.

Ultimately Singer's going to try and get through a lineup filled with power threats without swing and miss stuff (1 more K than IP this season). Without his closer, who hasn't worked b3b since the beginning of July, i think i will pass