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VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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too many unknown starters to post my leans that i know you all want to see, but in the meantime fuck the Dbacks bullpen that was horrible
 
ATL tt over, ATL over, Cubbies over, TB ML, Cleveland, M's over, CWS tt over, Yankees under
 
Pretty certain I'll be on Cleveland, I like fading teams off a nono and also fading that pitcher in their next start.
 
Scherzer pretty hot allowing 1 ER or less in 3 of last 4 starts including CG last time out vs soft-hitting MIA. Kluber enters on a hot streak of his own, major but's about it being against DET and BAL. Not sure this WSH lineup is anywhere near what it was years ago, but Soto's return is a major help. Speed at the top with Turner is important, Harrison has been hot and then Soto with some power behind him that doesn't run into them very often.

Boone again playing cleanup roulette, 1-3 are locked and loaded but Torres gets the call today with Gardner somehow hitting 5th in 2021. Unbelievable.

5-9 are pretty weak, though Higgy can hit a bit at C. Lineup inferior, but I'm not sold on Kluber returning to what he was 3 years ago and Scherzer is far more likely to emerge with the lead.

And emerge with the lead if he doesn't finish the game off, which gets us to bullpens. NYY has blown the last two games (one vs WSH) in the 8th inning, clearly having problems after selling off Ottavino to get under the tax. Yesterday was Loaisiga, previous Green. Chapman has not pitched in two days so should get an inning here, but really not sure who gets 7-8 and that's if Kluber gives 6. Not sure he will go that far, small price on the underdog but if Scherzer can't finish this one off everyone should be available. Hand has been solid, Huddy knows how to get out of jams since he's in them so often
 
B.A.R. said:
Gonna tail thy TT

I hate only getting 8 innings potentially but think we get this by 6 anyways
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I mean if there's a pitcher to get out of a rut right now and the narrative that those bats are just about to break loose it's probably this guy. The big boy numbers against Vince is there, off an ass kicking, no weather issues, Phillies pen is meh. I'm there with you, giving 3 outs away for free but all things lined up IMO

1620490641814.png
 
GWarner27 said:
Scherzer pretty hot allowing 1 ER or less in 3 of last 4 starts including CG last time out vs soft-hitting MIA. Kluber enters on a hot streak of his own, major but's about it being against DET and BAL. Not sure this WSH lineup is anywhere near what it was years ago, but Soto's return is a major help. Speed at the top with Turner is important, Harrison has been hot and then Soto with some power behind him that doesn't run into them very often.

Boone again playing cleanup roulette, 1-3 are locked and loaded but Torres gets the call today with Gardner somehow hitting 5th in 2021. Unbelievable.

5-9 are pretty weak, though Higgy can hit a bit at C. Lineup inferior, but I'm not sold on Kluber returning to what he was 3 years ago and Scherzer is far more likely to emerge with the lead.

And emerge with the lead if he doesn't finish the game off, which gets us to bullpens. NYY has blown the last two games (one vs WSH) in the 8th inning, clearly having problems after selling off Ottavino to get under the tax. Yesterday was Loaisiga, previous Green. Chapman has not pitched in two days so should get an inning here, but really not sure who gets 7-8 and that's if Kluber gives 6. Not sure he will go that far, small price on the underdog but if Scherzer can't finish this one off everyone should be available. Hand has been solid, Huddy knows how to get out of jams since he's in them so often
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the roulette is fucking with the flow of that line up, Andy Serkis look alike (boone) is overthinking his line up sometimes.

are we buying Kluber's last start?
 
i don't think Boone is qualified for his position, there's a reason that team doesn't win titles
 
gsro said:
the roulette is fucking with the flow of that line up, Andy Serkis look alike (boone) is overthinking his line up sometimes.

are we buying Kluber's last start?
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the ball was moving. So was Urena’s. Conditions seemed good and I expect Kluber to do well as things warm up. Today might not be that day, though. Chilly.
 
would like to be against CHC as i don't think they're good and Williams pitches to far too much contact + is former PIT property, but Crowe doesn't go deep in games and that's gonna make the PIT bullpen mean a lot more to me than i ever want it to. PIT lineup is gross
 
GWarner27 said:
would like to be against CHC as i don't think they're good and Williams pitches to far too much contact + is former PIT property, but Crowe doesn't go deep in games and that's gonna make the PIT bullpen mean a lot more to me than i ever want it to. PIT lineup is gross
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wanted to play the over here, wind isnt as prominent as yesterday and I suspect, like you, the pens will have to get involved sooner rather than later
 
Gausman and SF continue to be underpriced and they constantly win. He pitches on 5 days rest after having some vaccine side effects, not sure what to make of all that but it's not enough to scare me off. 5 days rest is his best for everything but WHIP and win%, so no worries there. SD has seen him twice this year and scored a run for each outing, 13ip 2r and SF is 2-0

Behind Gausman is McGee who was a little scary last night, but has been great this season. Rogers in the 8th was also a little scary, not sure Kapler is matching up his relievers to the lineups, which is not yet in vogue everywhere. Baragar and Wisler fresh to take the 7th if necessary, though Gausman could get that far if he's feeling up to it.

Musgrove was hit hard last start vs SF and that was after a ton of high-stress pitches @ LAD on SNB where he was rightly removed after only 3 innings. He's had a lot of stress on his arm this season throwing the no-hitter and then 85 or so pitches in 3 innings. He's also on five days rest here, same as he was for his last start vs SF. In looking deeper, his great start to the season began with some very light-hitting teams and of course PetCo plays as a small park. I'm not sure if he can throw 75% sliders again and survive, though it's clear he can wiggle out of trouble against defending World Champions.

If Musgrove does not go deep, his bullpen will be called into question. Kela exited with injury last night, expect everyone else to be available after Thursday's day off. Melancon will shut it down if he gets a lead to him, but Pomeranz hasn't looked as lights out and Pagan has yet to put it together. That's three arms better than anybody not named McGee in the SF pen, which is a bit unwanted though SD has to be the favorite somehow.

In terms of lineups, SF has a weak one that outperforms expectations in ways i can't explain. SD has Tatis who is always a HR threat, but there is plenty left to be desired with the rest of that lineup. Hosmer has been better since signing the big deal (bizarre), but i'm not sure he's someone you want to rely upon as next best hitter. That probably falls to Machado, but his low BA random power does not do it for me. All in all, Hosmer has good numbers vs Gausman as do Pham, Profar and Tatis. Pretty small samples across the board, damage includes 1 HR (Tatis), 1 3B (Grisham), 2 2B (Grisham, Profar) in 81 AB (5% XBH seems low).

Currently priced at 47% and I could see this being a coinflip plus last AB doesn't hurt
 
Lost yesterday on the Blue Jays 0-1

today :

Pirates+175

most recent dates here>>>


long term in this situation here >>>>


the new edition of the Cubs do not do well in winning streaks. Sucks that this is the Pirates and an inexperienced Pitcher on the Mound but I am not scared fading the Cubs when the ROI is so incredibly high. I mean in their history betting against the Cubs in this situation is better the 15% ROI. That is a long term investment I like.
 
spottie2935 said:
Lost yesterday on the Blue Jays 0-1

today :

Pirates+175

most recent dates here>>>


long term in this situation here >>>>


the new edition of the Cubs do not do well in winning streaks. Sucks that this is the Pirates and an inexperienced Pitcher on the Mound but I am not scared fading the Cubs when the ROI is so incredibly high. I mean in their history betting against the Cubs in this situation is better the 15% ROI. That is a long term investment I like.
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i'm curious what the ROI on a lot of those things look like i.e. what's a big play? small play? Or just a play in general?
 
Well I key on certain teams, so I start there. Then I look at the Pitchers and past opponents make a difference too. I play standard units until I see something that stands out. This play has more variables that makes this just a standard one unit play.
 
i don't think people have any real idea about what plays win more often than others unless you play a strict variance game, but i'd be interested in the cutoffs from what is a play vs what isn't. Like 10% ROI is a play but 5% is not?
 
GWarner27 said:
i don't think people have any real idea about what plays win more often than others unless you play a strict variance game, but i'd be interested in the cutoffs from what is a play vs what isn't. Like 10% ROI is a play but 5% is not?
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Well I break it down by team, so the ROI's I am looking for is more elevated then 5% or 10 %. I also look at starters so those ROI's will be more elevated. General MLB queries, you are right those return less ROI's but I think have less variance and sticking with those will return your profits more consistently. My queries are more specific and can be less consistent. Higher profits and more risky also.

Usually the 5 or 10 % plays keep a lot of teams I prefer to stay away from and also leaves a boat load of plays each day. Need a bigger bank to withstand any kind of weekly or monthly down turn. Then one would run the Risk of quitting before the return would appear.

My way keying on teams I can skip the teams for a period and then jump back on as they start doing what I need them to do.

Everyday betting and betting so many baseball games each day is not my cup of tea. I can skip in and out depending on my own daily needs.
 
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of course more risk more reward, i've played around with a high volume set of plays and a lower volume one and just don't know that making a ton of bets is smart for me to do.

I have not gotten it down to a ROI% yet though i'd like to move toward that kind of thing
 
How does your capping begin? My capping starts by knowing the teams past season and what has happened in the offseason.

Regression based and looking for nice prices.

Tonights play on the Reds for instance.

Cleveland has had an awesome Pitching staff for a few years, this season they have moved on from those Pitchers. Aaron Civale tonight and if you eliminate his starts against the Tigers (6-0 against them) the Indians are 9-12 in his starts. and In Civale's starts if the line is lower then -130 the Indians are 5-9 in those starts.
all Home starts for Civale when not facing the Tigers here>>>>
 
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I know i've lost betting Matz against Kelly in the desert before when he blanked or nearly blanked NYM, he seems to have shaken off his shoulder problems entering the season and has been very good lately.

4-0 lead wasn't enough since ARI didn't score again and the bullpen came in and walked toothless Nido before serving up a 2-run bomb to Lindor who hadn't hit a thing yet this season. NYM lineup is woefully bad, but if you're gonna hand them games then they will eventually take them.

ARI leading off Kelly is funny, but it cost them having Locastro there last night as he's never been able to hit and came up in a clutch situation. Rojas showed his youth not moving a runner, lots of flaws all around this team so maybe i should just stay away from a third loss on them this week.

Walker can hit, but is just back from injury. Peralta seems to hit when things are going well, Cabrera has always hit and Escobar is v streaky. IDK
 
on the other side, Diaz has to be down tonight? I guess he could go b3b, but coming back from a tight back and pitching b2b i don't think he's pitching tonight.

So bullpen game, Hunter for maybe 2 then Lucchesi 3-6 and good bullpen 7-9. Who is that good bullpen without Diaz? Familia closes, Loup now the L-on-L leverage guy with May probably back to take the 8th. Maybe Castro is in there?
 
did we ever get an excuse for Kershaw's 1 inning 4er 4h 2bb outing?

I'll guess cold weather, but i didn't hear that it was a grip issue or anything and back on 3 days rest signals some good health
 
GWarner27 said:
on the other side, Diaz has to be down tonight? I guess he could go b3b, but coming back from a tight back and pitching b2b i don't think he's pitching tonight.

So bullpen game, Hunter for maybe 2 then Lucchesi 3-6 and good bullpen 7-9. Who is that good bullpen without Diaz? Familia closes, Loup now the L-on-L leverage guy with May probably back to take the 8th. Maybe Castro is in there?
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Diaz won’t pitch. I don’t think. Question is can Lucc get to 6? Az has seen him and he’s not exactly a big time arm
 
Lucchesi is terrible. He needs to add velo and become a one inning reliever with a big curveball

He's bad enough that i'm almost ready to lose money on ARI again, but i won't as even Brad Hand is blowing saves now
 
GWarner27 said:
Lucchesi is terrible. He needs to add velo and become a one inning reliever with a big curveball

He's bad enough that i'm almost ready to lose money on ARI again, but i won't as even Brad Hand is blowing saves now
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Yeah I in game took Nats and yanks Tt under 1.5. Was hoping max could go 8
 
even if he did Hand was coming in for all the righties at the top of the lineup. Hated it coming in, but i feel like I've been on Hand for a ton of blown leads
 
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