bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
Saturday College FootBall
Navy* -6 -120 vs Army 240/200 ....I always have second thoughts about even wagering on this game as imo this match-up represents everything that’s good about college football But then I am 'old school' and see thing differently than most of the younger crew....but I am also a gambler, so...
Navy is on a 10-0 SU streak against Army, covering the spread in 7 out of the 10 games. 1st time since 2005, both teams have beaten Air Force, which means that their annual regular season finale will determine the winner of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. And this is a Big deal to these young men. Army always ranks highly in time of possession and this season is no different #14 in minutes possessing the football. But when you look at the other leaders and see that New Mexico and Rice are #1 and #2, you realize that Time of Possession is less meaningful than what an offense actually accomplishes during that time. Army’s Offensive and Defensive Total Yards this season are: 4,817-4,831. Very close, right? But at 32:17 to 27:43 in possession time, Army’s offense gains only 13.5 yards per minute of possession while the defense allowed 15.8 yards per minute. If, in our nation’s military history, our line of defense had allowed the enemy to encroach 2.5 yards against it for every yard we advanced, we’d all be sipping tea, bowing down to some stupid king, and beating each other up in soccer stadiums. However Army’s best defensive performance of the season came against their buddies at the Air Force, whose flexbone offense is similar to the triple-option that Navy and Army employ. Air Force gained only 4.7 yards per play that afternoon, only 80% of their season’s average of 5.84 yards per play. Navy’s season average of 5.88 yards per play is almost exactly what Air Force averaged.Army installed the option bout four years ago so the program could be more like Navy, and perhaps one day run it better than Navy so they might one day beat Navy again. But not today! Both teams run more than 80% of the time, but the other 20% is where Army still lags behind, with Steelman’s TD-INT a mere 1-2. Army also has that “friendly fire” problem with fumbles. Historically there’s no size disparity in a match between service academy squads, but Navy is conspicuously beefier than the smaller Cadets whose starting Defensive front 7 clocks in at only 220 pounds. Army QB Steelman is far more experienced than Navy counterpart Reynolds, but young Reynolds, fresh out of high school, has been a difference maker for Navy and he will be at his best with the extra practices to smooth out the rough edges.
I like NAVY 28-17.
small play on Navy/Army* Under 57 -130 130/100
GLTA
Navy* -6 -120 vs Army 240/200 ....I always have second thoughts about even wagering on this game as imo this match-up represents everything that’s good about college football But then I am 'old school' and see thing differently than most of the younger crew....but I am also a gambler, so...
Navy is on a 10-0 SU streak against Army, covering the spread in 7 out of the 10 games. 1st time since 2005, both teams have beaten Air Force, which means that their annual regular season finale will determine the winner of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. And this is a Big deal to these young men. Army always ranks highly in time of possession and this season is no different #14 in minutes possessing the football. But when you look at the other leaders and see that New Mexico and Rice are #1 and #2, you realize that Time of Possession is less meaningful than what an offense actually accomplishes during that time. Army’s Offensive and Defensive Total Yards this season are: 4,817-4,831. Very close, right? But at 32:17 to 27:43 in possession time, Army’s offense gains only 13.5 yards per minute of possession while the defense allowed 15.8 yards per minute. If, in our nation’s military history, our line of defense had allowed the enemy to encroach 2.5 yards against it for every yard we advanced, we’d all be sipping tea, bowing down to some stupid king, and beating each other up in soccer stadiums. However Army’s best defensive performance of the season came against their buddies at the Air Force, whose flexbone offense is similar to the triple-option that Navy and Army employ. Air Force gained only 4.7 yards per play that afternoon, only 80% of their season’s average of 5.84 yards per play. Navy’s season average of 5.88 yards per play is almost exactly what Air Force averaged.Army installed the option bout four years ago so the program could be more like Navy, and perhaps one day run it better than Navy so they might one day beat Navy again. But not today! Both teams run more than 80% of the time, but the other 20% is where Army still lags behind, with Steelman’s TD-INT a mere 1-2. Army also has that “friendly fire” problem with fumbles. Historically there’s no size disparity in a match between service academy squads, but Navy is conspicuously beefier than the smaller Cadets whose starting Defensive front 7 clocks in at only 220 pounds. Army QB Steelman is far more experienced than Navy counterpart Reynolds, but young Reynolds, fresh out of high school, has been a difference maker for Navy and he will be at his best with the extra practices to smooth out the rough edges.
I like NAVY 28-17.
small play on Navy/Army* Under 57 -130 130/100
GLTA
