Saturday Bases

[E.T.G.]

Getting an early start on this. Not going out tonight (Fri) because my friends are pussies and want to save their bodies for this wkend... I am heading down to Atlantic City today (Sat) and will be gone until atleast Monday, there will be no bets on Sunday from me (I say this now) as I am 4-13 on Sunday mostly because I am hungover, wake up late, and rush my picks and I don't expect any of that to change. I have glanced over this card a few times and I think its a pretty good card.

Leans:

Cubs -105
Pirates Over 9 -120
A's -114
Mariners -119
WSox -1.5 +100
Cleveland +112
Texas +130
Yankees -1.5 +125
Padres -117

Going through these games now but that is what has caught my eye without looking too deep.

 

[tru]

havent looked over tomorrows card yet, good luck. like texas, might have a doubleheader wit tha way tonights games rain delay is goin

 

[E.T.G.]

Tru - Thanks. Looking like a double header 2morrow although I haven't heard a def on that yet.


Ok well the overnight lines are taking a pounding I guess.

Cubs -113: Well this was -105 and than it got pounded up in no time. I don't expect the pounding to stop because the name "Zambrano" and -113 is pretty attractive to almost anyone. BetJam has $300 limits before 11am eastern time so either a few cats got some special limits or a whole host of $300 bets came in. I think some people have some higher limits. Now the game.. Neither pitcher has good #'s over the last 3 games. I will however side with Zambrano at a cheap price vs a team he has had success against in the past:

(1-1, 1.74era, 4g, 31ip, 19h, 6er, 12bb, 30k)

Clark (.250 in 20ab), Furcal (.150 in 20ab), Gonzalez (.273 in 11ab), Kent (.222 in 27ab), Pierre (.158 in 19ab)

Zambrano is pretty unpredictable right now but he pitches better away from Wrigley. It's true in his numbers this yr and it holds up looking at last yr's as well. Zambrano has been crushed this yr by Walks and HR's where he has givng up 12 of them and walked 31batters in 61innings. Zambrano also has an era of 11.70 in the first inning of baseball this yr, its very important for him to get off to a good start. LH batters are hitting .339 off Zambrano and RH batters only .196... Hendrickson got off to a hot start in April posting a 1.66era in 5 games and batters were only hitting .159 off him..May has been a tough month for him and he has come back to earth posting a 4.7era in 4games and batters are hitting .279 off him in the month. He is a better pitcher at home where he posts a 2.29era in 4games and 19.2ip but look at those numbers again, he is going about 5innings a start. He has pitched into the 7th only one time this yr as well... Hendrickson has dominated LH batters at .185 batting average and hitters are batting .258overall and .203 at home. The bullpen edge without a question goes to the Dodgers but they will have to work atleast 3 innings in this game. I would like to see the outcome of Friday Night's game but might not have a chance if this line keeps getting raped.

 

[daytonavol]

Hardest thing I have learned is that when ya bet crap team, ya get crap results; that said, this price on Zambrano is too tough to pass up; love the call, with ya on it.

 

[E.T.G.]

Seattle -117:

Got a chance to watch Baek for the first time vs CC and he didn't pitch bad at all although the numbers say he gave up 5er, it was really much closer than that. Baek does have his troubles with LH batters though and a little bit of trouble on the road. He has faced some tough lineups on the road (Indians, Tigers, Yanks) so seeing KC might be a relief..This will be the 2nd time KC see Baek and they will look to get more than 4hits. Baek received a no decision that day but went 6.1 giving up 1er, 2bb, 6k. Seattle Bats took care of a pretty good pitcher in Meche on Friday and might have heated up going into this weekend. Bannister is going to only throw about 5innings and overall he might have better stats than Baek, I think its misleading. The price on this game dropped from -119 to -117 and I would welcome any more that it wants to drop.

White Sox -1.5 +100:

I gave Edwin Jackson a shot last week and that was a terrible idea. At 0-7 on the yr, this guy just ain't a starting pitcher. Batters are hitting .308 overall off him and he is 0-3 on the road w/ 6.53era in 4games covering 20.2ip. Batters are hitting .298 off him on the road. LH batters are hitting .333 off him and RH are hitting .275. The DRays are a bad road team on top of this and won't be able to overcome the hole Edwin puts them in. Edwin has given up 48h in 37ip. Javier Vazquez hasn't been that good this yr but he only has to be decent in this game. Batters are only hitting .225 off him this yr overall and .188 at home..He is 1-1 w/ 3.38era att home and overall has pitched better in Chitown.

 

[E.T.G.]

Hardest thing I have learned is that when ya bet crap team, ya get crap results; that said, this price on Zambrano is too tough to pass up; love the call, with ya on it.

Yea that offense needs to wake up. The bullpen has done me dirty on more than one occassion this yr and I wish this thing was -105 still but at -114 now I still can't pass it up.

 

[Peldas]

Good Luck, my friend :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Padres -117:

I had something typed up and Avant browser froze. If you want a detailed write up, read Indian Cowboy's thread.

I have been keeping an eye on Germano this yr but have not bet him yet in any of his 3 starts. His stats are hard to argue against, real hard.

2-0, 19ip, .47era, 12h, 2bb, 5k

The kid is pitching for a spot in the rotation as well.

Vargas, 3-0 w/ 3.68era is due to receive a loss because he just has not pitched all that great as of late. He can have trouble with his control and he is also a 5-6inning guy so the bullpen is going to have to pitch 3innings in the game...If it comes down to a battle of bullpens I have to side with the Padres. They have been solid this yr and very reliable.

A pretty good home team (15-9) with an unknown but good starter (Germano), a better bullpen (league best in terms of stats), a bad Brewer team on the road (11-13), and a pitcher that hasnt been all that sharp (Vargas) for -117 is a pretty good value in my mind.

 

[reNew Orleans]

some good info so far. haven't really looked over it. dont feel like it but see some intriguing potential plays

 

[E.T.G.]

Yankees -1.5 +115:

Homer alert!

Seriously though Escobar had a nice outting last game vs LAD at HOME. However, we have Ervin Santana #2 on our hands here..This yr Escobar is 1-1, w/ 7.20era in 2games covering 10ip, 12h, 10r, 8er, 2bb, 4k and batters are hitting .293 off him on the road. He faced Seattle and CHW in those two games. His career #'s vs the Yankees are not good either: 6-7 w/ 5.23era in 15games covering 103ip and the Yankees own him at Yankee stadium.

Yankees vs Escobar: Damon (.163 in 49ab), Jeter (.381 in 42ab), Matsui (.385 in 13ab), AROD (.385 in 26ab), Abreu (.375 in 8ab), Giambi (.375 in 22ab), Cano (.400 in 5ab), Posada (.114 in 35ab).

Wanger is the guy we call on to come to the rescue. He has one career start vs LAA, a bad one but I will take my chances here more than likely.

 

[Jack]

man cubs is onto something, coming back from 5-1 deficit scoring 7 FREAKING RUNS in the 7th inning.

This has to be a huge blow to the dodgers' mentality.

 

[E.T.G.]

Last time I had a big card it didn't work out so well but was a few bounces away from being a hell of a day. I like the games I have selected and I am going to lock them in now. I will rehit tomorrow morning but this is looking like the final card, I don't even want to get involved in anything else and I want a fair stake at these numbers.


Cubs $342 to Win $300
Seattle $351 to Win $300
Padres $354 to Win $300
WSOX -1.5 +100 --- $250 to Win $250
Yanks -1.5 +115 --- $250 to Win $287.50

Other Sides I like:

Oakland -114: Keep fading the Orioles. Kennedy has thrown up good stats this yr but just doesn't have the Wins to match his numbers.

Texas +130: You only bet Padilla at home

Indians +109: Yea I am not involved in a CC game, tough to believe but I think I have better matchup elsewhere

Mets -139: Maine hasn't been so hot but he is better than what the Marlins are putting out there.

Arizona Under 8: Houston certainly won't touch Webb, they can't touch anyone and Sampson I think does enough to keep this under

Pitt Over 9 -120: Don't want to put my money near these two teams right now but can see this game going over.

 

[E.T.G.]

man cubs is onto something, coming back from 5-1 deficit scoring 7 FREAKING RUNS in the 7th inning.

This has to be a huge blow to the dodgers' mentality.

And a huge fire under the Cubs offense's ass

They got to the bullpen which is nice to see, hopefully it carries into tomorrow

 

[tuck321]

Escobar is 2-9 last 11 at NY but would not link him with Santana. The man is 7-3 last 10 on the road with mostly good starts. Still just looking myself GL

 

[Jack]

hey etg, got a question for you.

on pinny, utah is listed as 1st quarter -1, and also 1st half -1. Have you seen anything like this?

 

[E.T.G.]

Escobar is 2-9 last 11 at NY but would not link him with Santana. The man is 7-3 last 10 on the road with mostly good starts. Still just looking myself GL

I meant more in the sense of he has terrible success on the road this yr and in his career vs the Yanks..

Ervin has terrible success on the road period, no matter who, so you are right, they are not in the same universe

 

[E.T.G.]

hey etg, got a question for you.

on pinny, utah is listed as 1st quarter -1, and also 1st half -1. Have you seen anything like this?

I don't bet NBA but I have a question for you. Why shouldn't I take Spur ML tomorrow? I think they sweep the Jazz personally just from watching the last 2 games

 

[Jack]

you might as well, if they lose tomorrow, double up in game 4. But it's very difficult to sweep a series, especially in conference finals. The team down 0-2 will fight harder than the team that's up 2-0.

as i was typing this, dodgers just scored 4 runs off of Mr. oops-i-did-it-again-guzman.:36_11_6:

 

[E.T.G.]

you might as well, if they lose tomorrow, double up in game 4. But it's very difficult to sweep a series, especially in conference finals. The team down 0-2 will fight harder than the team that's up 2-0.

as i was typing this, dodgers just scored 4 runs off of Mr. oops-i-did-it-again-guzman.:36_11_6:

It was actually OHMAN AND Howry who gave up 4runs

Trust me I don't like seeing that. Cubs bullpen raped me in April, I just hope they get enough off Hendrickson early and fat Zambrano comes to pitch. I would like 7.1 or more from fatass tomorrow.

 

[Jack]

oh cbs had guzman as the pitcher, my apppologies to him...

It's really hard betting on the cubs, the batters can't score off of opponent SP, so you can't bet them 1st half. And their pigpen suck so you can't bet them on the whole games either.

But hope tomorrow they can actually hold it together.

 

[E.T.G.]

I am considering a double play on the WSox and it would be something like this..

WSOX ML $550 to Win $300
WSox RL -1.5 +100 $550 to Win $550

I feel like there is nothing to overthink here. Edwin Jackson is right now top 5, maybe top 10, worst starting pitchers in MLB.

• TB are 10-46 in their last 56 road games.
• TB is 3-7 in L10 meetings
• Edwin Jackson is 0-6 on the yr w/ 7.78era and DRays are 0-8 when he pitches

I am fully aware that Vazquez hasn't been on fire lately, he is 0-1 in his last 3 and the WSox are 0-3 in the last 3 he has pitched. However lets not kid ourselves here..Jackson is bad and he's not a starting pitcher, he is a reliever that needs to go back to the bullpen

4/9 - @ Tex, L, 5.2ip, 8h, 4r, 4er, 4k, 1bb
4/14 - @ Min, L, 3ip, 3h, 5r, 4er, 0k, 5bb
4/20 - CLE, ND, 6ip, 5h, 3r, 3er, 5k, 5bb
4/25 - @ ANA, L, 6ip, 8h, 6r, 3er, 4k, 1bb
5/1 - MIN, L, 1.1ip, 5h, 6r, 4er, 1k, 2bb
5/6 - Oak, L, 6.1ip, 6h, 4r, 4er, 6k, 4bb
5/12 - @ Tor, ND, 6ip, 6h, 4r, 4er, 9k, 2bb
5/18 - Fla, L, 2.2ip, 7h, 7r, 6er, 2k, 3bb

In 06' the Drays did beat the WSOX twice when Vazquez was pitching and his stats were:

6ip, 7h, 2r, 2er, 2k, 3bb
7ip, 8h, 5r, 5er, 4k, 2bb

Now the first game listed was home and is a pretty good start..The 2nd one was away and that was not so good.

Factor in the work the DRays bullpen will have to do. I think Vazquez luck will change tomorrow and the WSox and Thome are going to pound this guy into the dirt.

I am going to sleep on this but def a possible double play on this game 2morrow.

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">CHISox money everything! GL with all today bro.
</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Ray]

GL ETG..with you on Chisox

 

[E.T.G.]

Terp & Ray - Thanks guys and best of luck..

Alright these are final bets for Saturday

Cubs $550 to Win $471.90
Seattle $550 to Win $461.79
Padres $550 to Win $467.52
WSOX -1.5 +100 --- $500 to Win $488.10
WSOX ML $550 to Win $273.63
Yanks -1.5 +115 --- $500 to Win $562.50

What it comes down to today is that if Edwin Jackson is going to get his first win of the yr then bring it. This is gambling and I will take my chances. Yanks will take out Escobar in Yankee Stadium. I see a lot of people dogging the Yankees after yesterday but the better question is why the hell were you backing the rookie at such a high price after he's thrown a grand total of 5innings? Yah at -110, maybe you take a shot. At -136 I was starting to consider the Angels because thats just dumb. The line went up even more after that. Fat Zambrano better come to pitch today, he is going to be backed pretty heavy by the public and by the sharps that drove this line up all night. Germano might get hit today for the first time or he might continue to impress, either way the Brewers are a bad road team, and they don't have the advantage in the bullpen..Vargas can only go 5-6ip and has been having control problems.. Baek is going to get a win and its going to be KC that serves it to him. They made their run last week, now its time to come back to earth..He got hit for 5 runs vs the Indians last outting but pitched much better than that, it was 1 bad inning when he should of been pulled anyway. Seattle bats are en fuego right now. This card is big but I feel good about it so lets do this.

I am off to ATLANTIC CITY today, don't know if there is internet there in the hotel but that is the only way I can bet any games on Sunday so I will give it a look but its unlikely.

I hope everyone has a SAFE AND FUN MEMORIAL DAY WKEND. Want to say THANK YOU to all the troops who are serving, have served, will serve for the United States...


LETS WIN SOME MONEY TODAY!

:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

 

[Troutman]

Go get your gamble on Boi....THE VETRANS:shake:

 

[Satyr]

I agree with you on the Clippard thing, that's why I took the Angels last night, but I'll take them tonight as well. Again they're underrated and the price is too big. Maybe I'm getting drawn into this one naively, but heck, maybe Yankee backers are getting drawn into playing a 21-25 team against a top class team sending out a classy pitcher. So it's a two bladed sword.

Anyways, GL tonight. :shake: I tend to like Seattle and CWS at the moment.

I hope everyone has a SAFE AND FUN MEMORIAL DAY WKEND. Want to say THANK YOU to all the troops who are serving, have served, will serve for the United States...

Hopefully the guys still fighting will be back to their homes soon. :shake:
Enjoy memorial day weekend guys.

 

[daytonavol]

Nice job!

 

[Troutman]

Getting hot................................