Saturday Bases w/writeups......

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
34-16 (+54.3 UNITS)
Last 16 games- 15-1



***all plays are based on 4 units unless other wise noted***
OK this has been popular question..."Why do you post this at the top of your thread? Why don't you make your units 1 instead of 4? There are a few reasons why I do this: 1) For what I am betting, it is easier for me to keep track of and translate to cash- for my records. 2) 4 units is not the only ammount that I play on the game. 4 units is probably about the average I play on a game. I do not want to mess with decimals into the hundreths so I just usually play an even number ammount of units. 3) I post it, so when you look at my record with units, you realize that I usually play 4 units on each play. Therefore my Units could move a lot in one night 4) Right now I am only playing a few games a day. As the season wears on, I will play more games...sometimes I will forget to put units so I will always have that as backup- for those not familiar with my plays.

Games that I post the night before, usually will use stats prior to that night's games. I do take into effect(in my thougth process) what transpired that night.

onto Saturday:

Man this weekend is getting real drunk:

CHW/CLE OVER 10

I think that the White Sox bats are finally waking up. What better way to help them, then by giving them a pitcher who they have had success against. Yes, Byrd is 6-2 against the White Sox BUT he usually ned 6 or 7 from his offense to get the win. He has a 4.81 ERA against the Sox. Last season 11.7 innings and gave up 9 ER! Paul Konerko had hit .350(7/20) off of Byrd. Jim Thome has hit .308 (4/13 with 6 walks). Posednik hits .375 (3/8). Jaun Uribe is 2/4 lifetime with a couple of walks. Iguchi is 1/2 lifetime. Darrin Erstad also hits .306 (4/13). Jermaine Dye hits abut .250 and Crdede and AJ have struggled. Bottom line is that they are not intimidated by his funky lineup.

Earlier I said that I think the Sox bats might have woken up? Well I would like to recind that statement. They have played their last two series agains the A's and the Twins, two teams that consistantly play low scoring games. Their opening series had no shortage of runs. There have been 3 overs in the 4 meetings between these clubs.

John Danks gets the rock for CHW. It cant be much more intimidating than opposing Johan Santana in your first career start. With that being said, he pitched a successful game- going 6 innings 3ER, 6ks. The difference in this game will be the quality of the lineup he faces. And no I am not hating on the Twins, I just feel the Indians' lineup poses a bigger threat to it's opposition.

The Tribe bats have straight mashed in their first 7 games. They are batting .285 and are averaging 5+ runs per outting. The Indians can do everything from an offensive view. They can run, hit for average, and hit for power. In the offseason they have addded David Dullucci and Josh Barfield. For all the Dellucci haters, he is batting .318 and is a solid role player. SHould he be batting 4th, like he did the other day? Hell no...but that is not his fault. Josh Barfield is about the only player that is struggling in this lineup. Truth be told, I think he is a top 3 hitter in the lineup- I look for him to get things going against the young'n. Like I said, I am out of town so I do not know the status of Victor Martinez right now. When you put him in this lineup, it is a very scary thing.

The beuty of betting a Cleveland over is because they almost guarantee you 1 or 2 extra runs because of errors. They are the worse defensive team in the league, for the second year in a row. I am out of stuff so....11-8 CWS


ps...you can have fun with the Indians BP stats if you want they are horrid...


I will have some more later....BOL ALL :cheers:
 
Best of luck YesSir - I grabbed this myself for a lot of the same reasons you stated at EVEN money on BoDog.
 
Chad Durbin Why are you still in the L?

TORONTO/ DETROIT OVER 9.5

OK let me ask all of you this. Answer honestly. Who sent a rumor around MLB saying that Chad Durbin is a good pitcher or that he has a strong arm? Whoever did is either dead or rich and in hiding now. Whoever started that rumor probably also started the one that Ira Newble is a defensive specialist. Yes he is better at defense but dude airballs layups- why are either of these people in their respected leagues? Durbin has never been a good pitcher IMO. He has had 4 years where he has had at least 50 innings. His ERA those years? 72+innings 8.21 ERA...179 innings 4.93 ERA...60 innings 6.97 ERA....51 innings 6.66 ERA! Like is his dad the coach or something? Moving up to this year...he pitched a solid 4.7 innings giving up 9 hits and 6 ERs....And there will be the people that say he has had success against Toronto...That is true but the last time faced them was in 04- the Jays lost 95 games that year. This is not the same team....

AJ Burnett has slowly put together are pretty good career. Then agains I have a HOF career, when compared to Durbin. In his first outting, he got roughed up by this Detroit lineup. He only went 2innings, giving up 6 earned. Burnett is 1-1 with an ERA of 11.88 and WHIP close to 2 against these Tigers.

I have to run right now BUT...I look for many runs in this one...sorry I had to cut it off...I could have finished if I did not get so pissed when I saw Durbin on the bump...8-5 Jays


Probably will have more later...BOL :cheers:
 
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Colorodo/Arizona

thanks guys.....

Well Durbin once proved that he should not be alive....

The Indians was just a bad play by me. Did not look into it enough...

COLORODO/ARIZONA UNDER 9 (6.6-6)
Well this line is about a run too high IMO. You have all the factors for an under here...

Livan Hernandez will pitch tonight against Colorodo for the second time this year. In his first outting against them he went 7 strong, giving up 2 ERs. He ended up getting the loss(4-3 final). Hernandez has been brilliant this year(other start went 7 scorless innings)...He is allowing less than a base runner an inning!

Hernandez will face a COL lineup that has struggled mightily. They are only averaging 4.1 runs per game, 2.9 on the road, and 3.5 against righties! They are batting around .240 for the year and that dips to .200 on the road. They have only 4 HRs in their 10 games...In their 10 games they have only played in 2 games that have hit higher that this total(set at 9).

Aaron Cook will start for the Rockies. In his 2 starts he has accumalated a 3.60 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP! In his first game he got knocked around a little bit by this Diomand lineup(6 innings 5 ER). Impressively, he bounced back with a complete, 1 run - 5 hit game on the road. Tonight he will get a chance for revenge @ Arizona.

Cook's revenege will be against another team that has struggled with the sticks. THe D-Backs are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are hitting .247! In their 4 home games, they have seen these stats drop to .209 and 3.2 runs per. In their L5 games their runs per look like: 3,2,3,3,5. In their 11 games they have only played 2 games that have hit higher than this total(set at 9).

Pitching Staffs?
Colorodo is only giving up 3.4 runs per game (2.7 on the road)...teams are hitting .247 against them (226 on the road).....teams are only getting on base 29% of the time (26% on the road)....Their bullpen has a 4.16 ERA (3.38 on the road).....WHIP 1.077 (>1 on the road)!

Arizona is only giving up 3.8 runs per game (3.7 at home-4 games)....teams are hitting .262 against them (.246 at home)....Their bullpen has a 3.93 ERA (1.54 at home)...WHIPS are higher than I would like though...1.631 (1.542 at home).......


The 2 games that have went over the total for the teams were against each other(in the first series of the year). That means that these teams have not hit that total for 7 and 8 games....I feel that the runs in the opening series bumped this line at least a half run higher than it should be. When a total is set at 9 and you have 2 quality pitchers, struggling offenses, and decent pens- I will take the UNDER. Why? Because a lot of unusal stuff needs to happen for this to go over. Say Livan struggles....and Colorodo uncharacteristcally starts hitting...well then what? That means the Rocks are up 4-0 or 6-1. I do not expect both pitchers to collapse nor both offenses finfing the light...Rocks 3-1


might have one more in a bit...BOL all :cheers:
 
Baltimore/KC

Baltimore - 175

....do not have time to do a writeup...but will be on the computer and can answer questions....

I usually do not like to lay chalk about 140 but this is a rare play for me...this is the only other value that I saw on the card. Value at 175? I think so lol


questions- go ahead and shoot!

GL to all tonight :cheers:
 
Byrd was going to make history in his last outing. He had a no hitter going in the 5th with 2 outs and two strikes on the batter, and the game was called with one stike to go to make it offical, when Hargrove jumped out of the dugout and started screaming at the umpire to stop the game because it was snowing and the ball couldnt be seen by the outfielders. zthey stopped it and tha game was cancelled 20 minutes later .

Thats why I played Byrd today. He was sharp in that start, and was again today...
 
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