Game 4 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Cleveland's Road Struggles Continue
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Saturday, April 27 at 1 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Cleveland's Road Struggles
Cleveland is still worth fading on the road.
If there was any doubt about whether the Cavaliers would still struggle in road playoff games this year, Game 3 provided the answer with resounding clarity when Orlando won at home by 38 points.
Last year, Cleveland lost its road playoff games, in New York, by 20 and nine points, respectively.
Two years ago, the Cavaliers lost their road play-in game, getting blown out in the first quarter by the Nets who easily held on for victory after winning the first quarter by 20 points.
Orlando's Shooting
If you didn't watch Game 3, you'll look at the score and assume that Orlando finally got its big game from behind the arc after shooting so poorly from deep in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
But I really like Orlando at home not only because of Cleveland's incessant road struggles, but also because Orlando's turnaround is not a simple matter of percentages.
The Magic do not owe their success to a simple uptick in three-point conversion rate.
While, yes, they did finally shoot better, the key is that they actually shot below their regular season three-point conversion rate.
So, we could still very well get a big Magic three-point shooting performance, which they seem to be due for, in Game 4
Aggression
Orlando won Game 3 because it fed off its home crowd.
The Magic were more aggressive, with Jalen Suggs in attack mode and Suggs and his teammates doing a good job of pushing the pace.
Orlando's proclivity to push the pace allowed it to do a better job of turning defense into offense.
The Magic do a great job of forcing turnovers by, among other things, baiting opposing ball-handlers into making bad pass attempts through the long arms of their defenders.
Partly due to their pressure but also due to their physicality and overall energy, their defense has stifled Cleveland, holding the Cavaliers to below 100 points in all three games in this series.
With more aggressive offense, their defense is essentially making Cleveland pay on both ends of the court instead of merely limiting the Cavs' scoring output.
In the half-court, Orlando is getting more out of its shot-makers, in addition to getting more out of Suggs for his increased willingness to attack the basket.
Paolo Banchero's 31-point performance is something that he can replicate: he scored 42 in a regular season game against these Cavaliers.
Lineup Adjustment
In terms of lineup adjustments, center Wendell Carter Jr. started Game 3 for the Magic.
This was a good move, as he helped set the tone early for his team with his effort on the glass and his defensive energy.
His rebounding helped Orlando have many second-chance scoring opportunities. Overall, he lessened the impact of his counterpart Jarrett Allen, who had been Cleveland's most valuable player on both ends of the court.
Takeaway
Cleveland under its current head coach still can't sniff a road victory.
On the other side, Orlando is a different team at home, where its energy, tempo, and aggression are having a decisive effect.
The Magic defense is continuing to thrive, and the team is due for a great three-point shooting performance.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -135 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans' Shooting Problem
The Pelicans' offense is easy to like if you avoid taking a deeper dive.
It's easy to expect an uptick in three-point conversion rate for the Pelicans now that they are moving to their home floor.
But let's take that deeper dive by looking at one crucial statistic.
In Game 2, the Pelicans managed all of five open shot attempts.
What this stat shows is that they are not getting good looks from behind the arc.
My point is that New Orleans' offensive outlook is negative because it owes its struggles not simply to missing good looks but to failing to get those good looks in the first place.
Without Zion, who is still injured, the Pelicans lack an inside threat.
They lack creativity on offense.
Overall, they are too easy to guard behind the arc because they lack playmakers to get them open and they lack a scorer inside with which to punish Thunder defenders for worrying too much about limiting three-pointers.
Oklahoma City On The Road
The Thunder are a young team, and they showed their youth with a very nervy Game 1.
They scored a lot more points in Game 2 because they made 14 threes, converting nearly half of their 29 three-point attempts.
Regardless of the game's location, one should expect their three-point conversion rate to decline, but especially considering the team's overall youth, one should expect them to do a much worse job shooting the basketball.
Defense travels, though, so the Thunder will lean especially on defense.
Takeaway
In the regular season, where teams expend less energy on defense than they do in the postseason, the Pelicans mustered 83 points at home when they faced the Thunder and did not have Zion.
We should not expect the Pelicans' offense to have any sort of boost from playing at home, because defense travels and the Thunder defense will perpetuate its success.
But, especially due to their youth in a hostile environment, the Thunder shooting will decline after Game 2's explosion.
Best Bet: Under 209.5 at -112 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Jalen Brunson
New York won Games 1 and 2 despite getting poor performances from its star point guard, Jalen Brunson, in terms of shooting efficiency and distribution.
But, despite being on the road, Brunson figured things out in Game 3.
He found holes in Philadelphia's ball-screen coverage, rejected screens to put his off-ball defender in impossible spots, and utilized screens far away from the basket to create downhill momentum for him.
Brunson did so many things that a defense can't account for.
For example, when a screen is set for a player who can shoot threes like Brunson can, his on-ball defender is going to alter his footwork in order to go above the screen.
When that ball-handler rejects the screen upon seeing the defender step over the screen, then that defender is lost. What's a defense supposed to do? Blitz Brunson and make him strictly into a passer?
New York's Supporting Cast
Brunson, who amassed 13 assists in Game 3, has a lot of good scorers to help get involved.
The Knicks in Game 3 continued to showcase the depth of their scoring talent with strong games from OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
They lost by eleven despite the duds laid by Donte DiVincenzo and Miles McBride.
Both players, though, have made a strong impact in this series and have played well in Philadelphia this season.
It would be tremendous for the Knicks if just one of those two players could step up.
Joel Embiid and His Support
Joel Embiid's 50-point performance propelled Philadelphia to a Game 3 win.
He was uncanny from behind the arc, so much so that the Knicks' defense had to devote more worry than usual to his three-point shooting, which made things easier for Embiid's teammates.
However, when Embiid has scored 50 points in a game this season, he consistently scores fewer than 40 points in the following game.
While it doesn't seem like a big deal to say that Embiid will score fewer than 40 points, it is literally the difference in the score line – the 76ers won by 11.
His 50-point performance masked the poverty of Philadelphia's inferior supporting cast, as Buddy Hield, Nicolas Batum, and Tobias Harris continue to show little value on offense.
With a decline in Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point shooting, especially since he has to devote energy to trying to guard Brunson, the 76ers will lean all to heavily on a declined Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Precious Achiuwa
Mitchell Robinson might not play for the Knicks, as he was seen in a walking boot.
But more time for Precious Achiuwa would be a good thing for the Knicks.
He has shown remarkable ability on defense both in help and on the ball.
Video footage displays his strength when guarding Embiid and his discipline in not falling for Embiid's shot fakes.
His presence will help limit Embiid's scoring output. Good one-on-one defense from him will help his teammates ensure that Embiid and Maxey's supporting cast continues to look much worse than Brunson's.
Takeaway
Brunson will continue to be potent in attack, scoring a lot more than he did in Games 1 and 2 and doing a great job of getting his teammates involved.
New York's depth of scoring talent will help the Knicks triumph, as Embiid falls back to Earth.
Best Bet: Knicks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Saturday, April 27 at 1 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Cleveland's Road Struggles
Cleveland is still worth fading on the road.
If there was any doubt about whether the Cavaliers would still struggle in road playoff games this year, Game 3 provided the answer with resounding clarity when Orlando won at home by 38 points.
Last year, Cleveland lost its road playoff games, in New York, by 20 and nine points, respectively.
Two years ago, the Cavaliers lost their road play-in game, getting blown out in the first quarter by the Nets who easily held on for victory after winning the first quarter by 20 points.
Orlando's Shooting
If you didn't watch Game 3, you'll look at the score and assume that Orlando finally got its big game from behind the arc after shooting so poorly from deep in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
But I really like Orlando at home not only because of Cleveland's incessant road struggles, but also because Orlando's turnaround is not a simple matter of percentages.
The Magic do not owe their success to a simple uptick in three-point conversion rate.
While, yes, they did finally shoot better, the key is that they actually shot below their regular season three-point conversion rate.
So, we could still very well get a big Magic three-point shooting performance, which they seem to be due for, in Game 4
Aggression
Orlando won Game 3 because it fed off its home crowd.
The Magic were more aggressive, with Jalen Suggs in attack mode and Suggs and his teammates doing a good job of pushing the pace.
Orlando's proclivity to push the pace allowed it to do a better job of turning defense into offense.
The Magic do a great job of forcing turnovers by, among other things, baiting opposing ball-handlers into making bad pass attempts through the long arms of their defenders.
Partly due to their pressure but also due to their physicality and overall energy, their defense has stifled Cleveland, holding the Cavaliers to below 100 points in all three games in this series.
With more aggressive offense, their defense is essentially making Cleveland pay on both ends of the court instead of merely limiting the Cavs' scoring output.
In the half-court, Orlando is getting more out of its shot-makers, in addition to getting more out of Suggs for his increased willingness to attack the basket.
Paolo Banchero's 31-point performance is something that he can replicate: he scored 42 in a regular season game against these Cavaliers.
Lineup Adjustment
In terms of lineup adjustments, center Wendell Carter Jr. started Game 3 for the Magic.
This was a good move, as he helped set the tone early for his team with his effort on the glass and his defensive energy.
His rebounding helped Orlando have many second-chance scoring opportunities. Overall, he lessened the impact of his counterpart Jarrett Allen, who had been Cleveland's most valuable player on both ends of the court.
Takeaway
Cleveland under its current head coach still can't sniff a road victory.
On the other side, Orlando is a different team at home, where its energy, tempo, and aggression are having a decisive effect.
The Magic defense is continuing to thrive, and the team is due for a great three-point shooting performance.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -135 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans' Shooting Problem
The Pelicans' offense is easy to like if you avoid taking a deeper dive.
It's easy to expect an uptick in three-point conversion rate for the Pelicans now that they are moving to their home floor.
But let's take that deeper dive by looking at one crucial statistic.
In Game 2, the Pelicans managed all of five open shot attempts.
What this stat shows is that they are not getting good looks from behind the arc.
My point is that New Orleans' offensive outlook is negative because it owes its struggles not simply to missing good looks but to failing to get those good looks in the first place.
Without Zion, who is still injured, the Pelicans lack an inside threat.
They lack creativity on offense.
Overall, they are too easy to guard behind the arc because they lack playmakers to get them open and they lack a scorer inside with which to punish Thunder defenders for worrying too much about limiting three-pointers.
Oklahoma City On The Road
The Thunder are a young team, and they showed their youth with a very nervy Game 1.
They scored a lot more points in Game 2 because they made 14 threes, converting nearly half of their 29 three-point attempts.
Regardless of the game's location, one should expect their three-point conversion rate to decline, but especially considering the team's overall youth, one should expect them to do a much worse job shooting the basketball.
Defense travels, though, so the Thunder will lean especially on defense.
Takeaway
In the regular season, where teams expend less energy on defense than they do in the postseason, the Pelicans mustered 83 points at home when they faced the Thunder and did not have Zion.
We should not expect the Pelicans' offense to have any sort of boost from playing at home, because defense travels and the Thunder defense will perpetuate its success.
But, especially due to their youth in a hostile environment, the Thunder shooting will decline after Game 2's explosion.
Best Bet: Under 209.5 at -112 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Jalen Brunson
New York won Games 1 and 2 despite getting poor performances from its star point guard, Jalen Brunson, in terms of shooting efficiency and distribution.
But, despite being on the road, Brunson figured things out in Game 3.
He found holes in Philadelphia's ball-screen coverage, rejected screens to put his off-ball defender in impossible spots, and utilized screens far away from the basket to create downhill momentum for him.
Brunson did so many things that a defense can't account for.
For example, when a screen is set for a player who can shoot threes like Brunson can, his on-ball defender is going to alter his footwork in order to go above the screen.
When that ball-handler rejects the screen upon seeing the defender step over the screen, then that defender is lost. What's a defense supposed to do? Blitz Brunson and make him strictly into a passer?
New York's Supporting Cast
Brunson, who amassed 13 assists in Game 3, has a lot of good scorers to help get involved.
The Knicks in Game 3 continued to showcase the depth of their scoring talent with strong games from OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
They lost by eleven despite the duds laid by Donte DiVincenzo and Miles McBride.
Both players, though, have made a strong impact in this series and have played well in Philadelphia this season.
It would be tremendous for the Knicks if just one of those two players could step up.
Joel Embiid and His Support
Joel Embiid's 50-point performance propelled Philadelphia to a Game 3 win.
He was uncanny from behind the arc, so much so that the Knicks' defense had to devote more worry than usual to his three-point shooting, which made things easier for Embiid's teammates.
However, when Embiid has scored 50 points in a game this season, he consistently scores fewer than 40 points in the following game.
While it doesn't seem like a big deal to say that Embiid will score fewer than 40 points, it is literally the difference in the score line – the 76ers won by 11.
His 50-point performance masked the poverty of Philadelphia's inferior supporting cast, as Buddy Hield, Nicolas Batum, and Tobias Harris continue to show little value on offense.
With a decline in Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point shooting, especially since he has to devote energy to trying to guard Brunson, the 76ers will lean all to heavily on a declined Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Precious Achiuwa
Mitchell Robinson might not play for the Knicks, as he was seen in a walking boot.
But more time for Precious Achiuwa would be a good thing for the Knicks.
He has shown remarkable ability on defense both in help and on the ball.
Video footage displays his strength when guarding Embiid and his discipline in not falling for Embiid's shot fakes.
His presence will help limit Embiid's scoring output. Good one-on-one defense from him will help his teammates ensure that Embiid and Maxey's supporting cast continues to look much worse than Brunson's.
Takeaway
Brunson will continue to be potent in attack, scoring a lot more than he did in Games 1 and 2 and doing a great job of getting his teammates involved.
New York's depth of scoring talent will help the Knicks triumph, as Embiid falls back to Earth.
Best Bet: Knicks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
