Giants Will Lock Up Brewers’ Hopes of Winning Sunday Finale in Alcatraz
San Francisco closes a four-game home series with Milwaukee on Sunday at 4:05 ET. Build up your bankroll for Sunday Night Baseball by betting on a Giants victory.
Brewers at Giants, Sunday 4:05 ET
MLB Pick: Giants
San Francisco’s Andrew Suarez (3-5, 3.99 ERA) has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.50 or better in four of his past five starts and conceded two runs or fewer in four of his past five home games. Suarez conceded a homer in his last game. But he’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last four starts that immediately followed one in which he surrendered a homer.
The southpaw Suarez has gone the opposite route that most rookies take. Usually, they try to expand their pitching arsenal. But Suarez is focusing on his favorite pitches. In his first month, a 10% disparity existed between his fastball usage and that of his second-most frequent pitch. In July, that disparity has almost doubled. He's throwing his fastball with 42% frequency and yet it’s improving. Opponents are batting .194 and slugging .258 against it. Suarez has always relied on his fastball in all scenarios except with two strikes, where he features his slider and has featured it more in July. It’s easily his favorite whiff pitch.
Suarez is known for his command. In July, he’s located over 41% of his pitches in the zone in each of his games and ranks in the upper third in zone percentage. Even though he’s throwing more strikes, he’s strongly reducing opposing hard contact rate—this month, it’s down from 40% in June to 28%. He has brought down opposing lefties’ slugging by emphasizing his slider more against them and not only with two strikes. His fastball is more effective because its higher spin rate makes it harder for the batter to track. It’s also more effective because of his enhanced flexibility with his slider usage. Now, opponents can be less sure whether a fastball or slider is approaching them. Suarez is already deceptive in this regard because both pitches share similar horizontal and vertical release points, so that opponents must wait longer to distinguish between them.
Milwaukee is unreliable against lefties. They’re yielding negative units and rank 23rd in slugging against them. Against Suarez’ two favorite pitches, from lefties, they rank 28th in slugging, even though they play most often in a hitter-friendlly park. They’re also terrible day-time, when they yield -12.1 units and have a .668 OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720). Milwaukee is 1-7 in its past eight Sunday games. Four of those losses came by five runs or more.
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Even though Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.13 ERA) pitches in a hitters-friendly ballpark, he has been worse on the road. He has conceded 10 runs in his past two road starts, yielding less than seven percent soft contact in each of them.
Guerra relies on a fastball-sinker combo, although lately he’s leaned more on his sinker, while consistently mixing in a splitter and slider. He has particularly reduced his fastball usage against right-handed batters, mostly in an effort to create more variety in first-pitch selection. Guerra shares Suarez’ boldness to throw frequently in the zone but is exceptionally prone to yield hard contact. He isn’t as able as Suarez to nail the edges of the strike zone—Suarez does this with 1.3% more frequency. Opponents are slugging over .400 against Guerra’s two favorite pitches and he’s allowed a homer in his past two games.
San Fran is 21-32 away but 31-21 at home. They have the best home record in the NL West. Their OPS is .740 there, even though it’s a very pitcher-friendly park, compared to .674 on the road. They’re the sixth-most profitable home team, yielding +8.7 units, and are much stronger during the day, where they yield +9.5 units. They’re 6-1 in their last seven Sunday games. They rank 10th in slugging at home against Guerra’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and sinker, and are metrically underachieving. Watch for Buster Posey, who slugs .480 at home.
San Francisco closes a four-game home series with Milwaukee on Sunday at 4:05 ET. Build up your bankroll for Sunday Night Baseball by betting on a Giants victory.
Brewers at Giants, Sunday 4:05 ET
MLB Pick: Giants
San Francisco’s Andrew Suarez (3-5, 3.99 ERA) has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.50 or better in four of his past five starts and conceded two runs or fewer in four of his past five home games. Suarez conceded a homer in his last game. But he’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last four starts that immediately followed one in which he surrendered a homer.
The southpaw Suarez has gone the opposite route that most rookies take. Usually, they try to expand their pitching arsenal. But Suarez is focusing on his favorite pitches. In his first month, a 10% disparity existed between his fastball usage and that of his second-most frequent pitch. In July, that disparity has almost doubled. He's throwing his fastball with 42% frequency and yet it’s improving. Opponents are batting .194 and slugging .258 against it. Suarez has always relied on his fastball in all scenarios except with two strikes, where he features his slider and has featured it more in July. It’s easily his favorite whiff pitch.
Suarez is known for his command. In July, he’s located over 41% of his pitches in the zone in each of his games and ranks in the upper third in zone percentage. Even though he’s throwing more strikes, he’s strongly reducing opposing hard contact rate—this month, it’s down from 40% in June to 28%. He has brought down opposing lefties’ slugging by emphasizing his slider more against them and not only with two strikes. His fastball is more effective because its higher spin rate makes it harder for the batter to track. It’s also more effective because of his enhanced flexibility with his slider usage. Now, opponents can be less sure whether a fastball or slider is approaching them. Suarez is already deceptive in this regard because both pitches share similar horizontal and vertical release points, so that opponents must wait longer to distinguish between them.
Milwaukee is unreliable against lefties. They’re yielding negative units and rank 23rd in slugging against them. Against Suarez’ two favorite pitches, from lefties, they rank 28th in slugging, even though they play most often in a hitter-friendlly park. They’re also terrible day-time, when they yield -12.1 units and have a .668 OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720). Milwaukee is 1-7 in its past eight Sunday games. Four of those losses came by five runs or more.
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Even though Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.13 ERA) pitches in a hitters-friendly ballpark, he has been worse on the road. He has conceded 10 runs in his past two road starts, yielding less than seven percent soft contact in each of them.
Guerra relies on a fastball-sinker combo, although lately he’s leaned more on his sinker, while consistently mixing in a splitter and slider. He has particularly reduced his fastball usage against right-handed batters, mostly in an effort to create more variety in first-pitch selection. Guerra shares Suarez’ boldness to throw frequently in the zone but is exceptionally prone to yield hard contact. He isn’t as able as Suarez to nail the edges of the strike zone—Suarez does this with 1.3% more frequency. Opponents are slugging over .400 against Guerra’s two favorite pitches and he’s allowed a homer in his past two games.
San Fran is 21-32 away but 31-21 at home. They have the best home record in the NL West. Their OPS is .740 there, even though it’s a very pitcher-friendly park, compared to .674 on the road. They’re the sixth-most profitable home team, yielding +8.7 units, and are much stronger during the day, where they yield +9.5 units. They’re 6-1 in their last seven Sunday games. They rank 10th in slugging at home against Guerra’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and sinker, and are metrically underachieving. Watch for Buster Posey, who slugs .480 at home.
