NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Parlay
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 16, 2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium
Dak At Home
When creating their spreads, oddsmakers figure that home field advantage is worth a certain number of points for a certain team.
Factors include the loudness of home fans which can disturb an opposing offense and the comfort that the home team enjoys in that it does not have to travel and in that it is familiar with its home venue.
For example, Dallas was favored by 6.5 in Washington and by 10 at home against the same team.
But I don't think that oddsmakers account for certain individual peculiarities that triumph the importance of broader factors like loudness of home fans.
What I am driving at is that Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott is significantly stronger at home than he is on the road.This difference is immense and it has a powerful consequence on the scoreboard.
Statistically speaking, Dak has a 94.0 passer rating in road games this season but a 116.2 passer rating at home.
His worst games -- at the Chargers on September 19, at Washington on December 12, and so forth -- have come on the road.
Conversely, he is at his best at home, as evident in his decimation of the same Washington secondary -- with an improvement of over 70 points in passer rating from the first game against Washington to the rematch at home -- and in his most recent domination of Philadelphia.
San Francisco's Secondary
The 24 points that the 49ers gave up to the Rams worries me because they got to face a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense spearheaded by a struggling quarterback.
With running backs Tony Pollard, whose foot Dallas rested for its Week 18 contest, and Zeke Elliott, the Cowboys like to be more balanced than the Rams, who have trouble committing themselves to the run despite their stated intention to do so.
Dak, especially at home, also does not have Matthew Stafford's array of problems, ranging from his tendency to make critical mistakes to his odd tendency to walk into sacks.
What Stafford did enjoy is something that Dak has as well, namely a top-notch primary wide receiver.
For the Rams, Cooper Kupp amassed 118 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco.
Primary receivers, when facing the Rams, have consistently been solid and are repeatedly taking over the game.
AJ Brown, in the second half against the 49ers, is another example of such a receiver.
Dak is stacked with superb wide receivers, namely Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, both of whom are repeatedly capable of putting up gigantic numbers.
With the spread as short as it is, both wide receivers could underachieve considerably and still help Dallas cover the spread.
San Francisco's Offensive Counter
San Francisco has a serious problem at quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo is playing through an injury in his hand.
Give credit to Garoppolo's toughness -- the commentators sure tried their best to flatter him during his game against the Rams -- but his injury exacerbates already existing issues.
Namely, Garoppolo makes too many mistakes through the air.
As evident, for example, early in his game against Tennessee and later against the Rams, Garoppolo costs his team in the red zone with bad mistakes, throwing interceptable passes that opposing defensive backs take advantage of.
As Jalen Ramsey did for the Rams, Dallas defensive back Trevon Diggs is one candidate to pick off Garoppolo.
Despite missing Week 18 with an illness (not COVID), Diggs already has 11 interceptions this season.
At home, the Cowboys are lethal at turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
They do so at home with 83.87-percent frequency, which is a rate that San Francisco, which scores touchdowns off red zone trips with 60.71-percent frequency in road games, cannot keep up with.
Total Verdict
San Francisco is going to run the ball well.
The Cowboys loaded the box against Atlanta but still gave up 103 rushing yards.
New England's Damien Harris was solid against the Cowboys and he's just one more example.
The 49ers will use its rush attack to keep Dak off the field. The clock will tick and 49er drives will result in field goal attempts.
Meanwhile, led by Dak, Dallas' drives will end in touchdowns.
So, I foresee a lower-scoring game in which the Cowboys use their superior efficiency and firepower to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Cowboys -3 at -110 & Under 50 at -115 at +257 odds
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 16, 2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium
Dak At Home
When creating their spreads, oddsmakers figure that home field advantage is worth a certain number of points for a certain team.
Factors include the loudness of home fans which can disturb an opposing offense and the comfort that the home team enjoys in that it does not have to travel and in that it is familiar with its home venue.
For example, Dallas was favored by 6.5 in Washington and by 10 at home against the same team.
But I don't think that oddsmakers account for certain individual peculiarities that triumph the importance of broader factors like loudness of home fans.
What I am driving at is that Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott is significantly stronger at home than he is on the road.This difference is immense and it has a powerful consequence on the scoreboard.
Statistically speaking, Dak has a 94.0 passer rating in road games this season but a 116.2 passer rating at home.
His worst games -- at the Chargers on September 19, at Washington on December 12, and so forth -- have come on the road.
Conversely, he is at his best at home, as evident in his decimation of the same Washington secondary -- with an improvement of over 70 points in passer rating from the first game against Washington to the rematch at home -- and in his most recent domination of Philadelphia.
San Francisco's Secondary
The 24 points that the 49ers gave up to the Rams worries me because they got to face a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense spearheaded by a struggling quarterback.
With running backs Tony Pollard, whose foot Dallas rested for its Week 18 contest, and Zeke Elliott, the Cowboys like to be more balanced than the Rams, who have trouble committing themselves to the run despite their stated intention to do so.
Dak, especially at home, also does not have Matthew Stafford's array of problems, ranging from his tendency to make critical mistakes to his odd tendency to walk into sacks.
What Stafford did enjoy is something that Dak has as well, namely a top-notch primary wide receiver.
For the Rams, Cooper Kupp amassed 118 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco.
Primary receivers, when facing the Rams, have consistently been solid and are repeatedly taking over the game.
AJ Brown, in the second half against the 49ers, is another example of such a receiver.
Dak is stacked with superb wide receivers, namely Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, both of whom are repeatedly capable of putting up gigantic numbers.
With the spread as short as it is, both wide receivers could underachieve considerably and still help Dallas cover the spread.
San Francisco's Offensive Counter
San Francisco has a serious problem at quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo is playing through an injury in his hand.
Give credit to Garoppolo's toughness -- the commentators sure tried their best to flatter him during his game against the Rams -- but his injury exacerbates already existing issues.
Namely, Garoppolo makes too many mistakes through the air.
As evident, for example, early in his game against Tennessee and later against the Rams, Garoppolo costs his team in the red zone with bad mistakes, throwing interceptable passes that opposing defensive backs take advantage of.
As Jalen Ramsey did for the Rams, Dallas defensive back Trevon Diggs is one candidate to pick off Garoppolo.
Despite missing Week 18 with an illness (not COVID), Diggs already has 11 interceptions this season.
At home, the Cowboys are lethal at turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
They do so at home with 83.87-percent frequency, which is a rate that San Francisco, which scores touchdowns off red zone trips with 60.71-percent frequency in road games, cannot keep up with.
Total Verdict
San Francisco is going to run the ball well.
The Cowboys loaded the box against Atlanta but still gave up 103 rushing yards.
New England's Damien Harris was solid against the Cowboys and he's just one more example.
The 49ers will use its rush attack to keep Dak off the field. The clock will tick and 49er drives will result in field goal attempts.
Meanwhile, led by Dak, Dallas' drives will end in touchdowns.
So, I foresee a lower-scoring game in which the Cowboys use their superior efficiency and firepower to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Cowboys -3 at -110 & Under 50 at -115 at +257 odds
