Expect Wild West-Style Duel Between Rockies and Giants Pitchers on Saturday
San Francisco hosts Colorado on Saturday at 9:05 ET. Do the Giants have a chance of spoiling Colorado’s lead in the NL West?
Colorado at San Francisco
MLB Pick: Under
Colorado’s German Marquez (12-9, 3.94 ERA) is showing superb form since mid-August, conceding two runs or fewer in his last six starts. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 2.75 in each of those starts and his FIP was under 1.10 in four of his past seven starts, indicating that even his excellent surface numbers don’t do justice to the quality of his individual performance. The „under“ has hit in eight of his last nine starts and it’s 9-3-2 (75%) in his road games.
The key to Marquez’ improvement has been to enhance the variety of his pitching arsenal. He had been more predictable because of his heavy reliance on his fastball. But in August and so far in September, he’s relied on his fastball with only 40 percent frequency. Instead, he’s leaning more on his sinker and slider. His fastball averages 95 mph, carries moderate arm-side movement, and he commands it well at all parts of the plate. He throws his slider more often because he’s more comfortable throwing it in all scenarios, particularly cutting into his first-pitch fastball usage. He’s improved it by adding horizontal movement while eliminating vertical movement, so that it doesn’t hang over the plate, which would allow the batter to track it more easily. Since August, he’s also commanded it better, avoiding the middle of the plate more, while surprisingly varying its location by placing it at all levels of the strike zone. Because of its improvements, his slider yielded an opposing .061 BA in August and .150 so far in September. His sinker is characterized by 95 mph velocity and strong arm-side movement that makes it elusive. Hitters are batting .167 against it in September.
Opponents are struggling to figure out the improved and in-form Marquez. When the Giants faced him on September 4, they struck out 11 times in 6.2 innings and mustered two runs. He has a positive recent history in rematches against recently faced opponents largely because of his ability to vary his favorite pitches across all parts of the plate, his improved pitch sequencing and variety, and the intersection of vertical and horizontal release points of most of his pitches, which disguises for the batter which pitch is leaving his hand.
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San Franicsco’s Madison Bumgarner (5-6, 3.30) seems to be in bad form, but his poor recent results are a consequence of his having pitched on the road. In his last two home starts, totaling 14 innings, he’s allowed zero runs, despite facing playoff-caliber Arizona and defending champions Houston. On the season, his home ERA is 1.49, compared to 5.02 on the road, and his FIP splits substantiate this disparity. The „under“ is 6-1-1 (85%) in Bumgarner’s home games.
The southpaw Bumgarner relies on a fastball-cutter-curve combo. The three pitches comprise 92% of his pitching arsenal. Bumgarner’s velocity isn’t as solid as Marquez’s, but Marquez isn’t nearly the master in deception as Bumgarner. All of Bumgarner’s pitches share nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, each one being within .07 feet of the other. What also makes it easy for Bumgarner to be a step ahead of the opposing batter is his effective pitch sequencing, ably relying on multiple pitches in a given scenario. His most famous pitch is his curveball, which is characterized by the change of pace introduced by its slowness and its tricky, negative vertical and horizontal movement. Opponents bat .159 against it because even if they figure out its movement, they struggle to catch up to its location. He places it with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the zone.
The „under“ is hitting in 64% of Colorado’s games vs lefties and they face one of the best in his favorite ballpark. When Bumgarner shut out Colorado over seven innings at home, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon were combined 1-for-8.
San Francisco hosts Colorado on Saturday at 9:05 ET. Do the Giants have a chance of spoiling Colorado’s lead in the NL West?
Colorado at San Francisco
MLB Pick: Under
Colorado’s German Marquez (12-9, 3.94 ERA) is showing superb form since mid-August, conceding two runs or fewer in his last six starts. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 2.75 in each of those starts and his FIP was under 1.10 in four of his past seven starts, indicating that even his excellent surface numbers don’t do justice to the quality of his individual performance. The „under“ has hit in eight of his last nine starts and it’s 9-3-2 (75%) in his road games.
The key to Marquez’ improvement has been to enhance the variety of his pitching arsenal. He had been more predictable because of his heavy reliance on his fastball. But in August and so far in September, he’s relied on his fastball with only 40 percent frequency. Instead, he’s leaning more on his sinker and slider. His fastball averages 95 mph, carries moderate arm-side movement, and he commands it well at all parts of the plate. He throws his slider more often because he’s more comfortable throwing it in all scenarios, particularly cutting into his first-pitch fastball usage. He’s improved it by adding horizontal movement while eliminating vertical movement, so that it doesn’t hang over the plate, which would allow the batter to track it more easily. Since August, he’s also commanded it better, avoiding the middle of the plate more, while surprisingly varying its location by placing it at all levels of the strike zone. Because of its improvements, his slider yielded an opposing .061 BA in August and .150 so far in September. His sinker is characterized by 95 mph velocity and strong arm-side movement that makes it elusive. Hitters are batting .167 against it in September.
Opponents are struggling to figure out the improved and in-form Marquez. When the Giants faced him on September 4, they struck out 11 times in 6.2 innings and mustered two runs. He has a positive recent history in rematches against recently faced opponents largely because of his ability to vary his favorite pitches across all parts of the plate, his improved pitch sequencing and variety, and the intersection of vertical and horizontal release points of most of his pitches, which disguises for the batter which pitch is leaving his hand.
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San Franicsco’s Madison Bumgarner (5-6, 3.30) seems to be in bad form, but his poor recent results are a consequence of his having pitched on the road. In his last two home starts, totaling 14 innings, he’s allowed zero runs, despite facing playoff-caliber Arizona and defending champions Houston. On the season, his home ERA is 1.49, compared to 5.02 on the road, and his FIP splits substantiate this disparity. The „under“ is 6-1-1 (85%) in Bumgarner’s home games.
The southpaw Bumgarner relies on a fastball-cutter-curve combo. The three pitches comprise 92% of his pitching arsenal. Bumgarner’s velocity isn’t as solid as Marquez’s, but Marquez isn’t nearly the master in deception as Bumgarner. All of Bumgarner’s pitches share nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, each one being within .07 feet of the other. What also makes it easy for Bumgarner to be a step ahead of the opposing batter is his effective pitch sequencing, ably relying on multiple pitches in a given scenario. His most famous pitch is his curveball, which is characterized by the change of pace introduced by its slowness and its tricky, negative vertical and horizontal movement. Opponents bat .159 against it because even if they figure out its movement, they struggle to catch up to its location. He places it with 50% frequency in the lowest row of the zone.
The „under“ is hitting in 64% of Colorado’s games vs lefties and they face one of the best in his favorite ballpark. When Bumgarner shut out Colorado over seven innings at home, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon were combined 1-for-8.
