Sonny Skies For The Reds In Cincinnati And A Ray Of Sunshine For Zona In Colorado
San Francisco (13-18) at Cincinnati (13-18)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Reds 1H RL
I want to fade San Francisco starter Tyler Beede, (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who is being called up from Triple-A to fill in for the injured Derek Holland.
If you read about Beede, you'll find writers complimenting him for his stuff. The problem with this perspective is that everybody who gets called up to pitch professionally has nice stuff and it means nothing without accompanying command. In Triple A, he is walking 3.97 batters per nine innings. Against professional batters, he'll likely struggle to maintain that walk rate, although it would be considered a very high one by MLB standards.
Beede relies on a fastball-change-up-curveball combo. His change-up is viewed by scouts and by himself as his best pitch because of its movement and its above-average velocity differential relative to his fastball. But again it comes down to command because his secondary pitches play off of his fastball to a degree and when he struggles to throw strikes, he stacks the odds against himself. In the minors, his ERA was 4.50 when behind in the count.
Sonny Gray (0-4, 3.64 ERA) is happy to be out of New York and reunited with his pitching coach from his earlier glory days in Oakland. His strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates are strongly improved from last year, as are his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Gray complained that Yankee coaches forced him to throw a slider in tough situations. Perhaps he was mismanaged in some ways. Plus, playing in New York with extra pressure to perform isn't for everybody. Either way, he is throwing his slider more often this year and it has become his most effective pitch, yielding a .044 opposing slugging rate. He's strongly enhanced its horizontal movement and negative vertical movement. Despite its heavy movement, he nails it with 47.19% frequency in the lowest right spot in the zone. Overall, Gray thrives with variety, deception created by the similarity of his different pitches' release points, and unique movement.
In 93 career at-bats against Gray, Giant batters have six extra-base hits. Five of those came from Evan Longoria who is hitless in his last eight at-bats against Gray and has two hits in his last 32 at-bats.
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Arizona (18-13) at Colorado (15-17)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks 1H ML
Colorado's Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.34 ERA) is worth fading. Anderson has conceded five or six runs in all four of his starts while failing to surpass five innings.
Although Anderson dealt with some knee inflammation earlier this year, a broad picture of his advanced stats look innocuous. Nothing appears worrisome in terms of velocity, release point disparity, location tendencies, strike rate, and movement. But you get a completely different picture when you watch him against opposing batters, one that reveals an extremely worrisome tendency that was also apparent during Spring Training. He repeatedly misses his spots. He makes too many mistakes with particular pitches and opposing batters make him pay. Colorado is, in this regard, the worst place for him, because it is very easy in Denver for the ball to leave the yard. Anderson has conceded six home runs in his last three starts combined.
As a southpaw, Anderson also matches up poorly with a Diamondback lineup that is currently second-best in slugging against southpaws. Watch out in particular for Nick Ahmed, who is 5-for-10 with two homers in his career against Anderson.
Arizona's Robbie Ray (1-1, 4.18 ERA) is a strong bounce-back pitcher. He has allowed two runs or fewer in his last 10 starts following one in which he allowed a homer.
Ray is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher. Both pitches make up 84 percent of his arsenal. He has typically relied on his curveball as an effective third pitch. But it has yielded poor results so far. His curveball struggles serve him as a blessing in disguise because curveballs tend to struggle in Denver's high-altitude climate. Instead, Ray has been throwing his sinker more often. Opponents are batting .200 against it. He's generating more whiffs with his sinker because of its improved horizontal and vertical movement that makes it more elusive.
Colorado batters have solid numbers against Ray. But those numbers are meaningless tonight because the bulk of them came from when the Rockies faced him in Arizona, where Ray has suffered historically. In Ray's only start in Colorado last year, he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings, yielding a 2.41 FIP.
San Francisco (13-18) at Cincinnati (13-18)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Reds 1H RL
I want to fade San Francisco starter Tyler Beede, (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who is being called up from Triple-A to fill in for the injured Derek Holland.
If you read about Beede, you'll find writers complimenting him for his stuff. The problem with this perspective is that everybody who gets called up to pitch professionally has nice stuff and it means nothing without accompanying command. In Triple A, he is walking 3.97 batters per nine innings. Against professional batters, he'll likely struggle to maintain that walk rate, although it would be considered a very high one by MLB standards.
Beede relies on a fastball-change-up-curveball combo. His change-up is viewed by scouts and by himself as his best pitch because of its movement and its above-average velocity differential relative to his fastball. But again it comes down to command because his secondary pitches play off of his fastball to a degree and when he struggles to throw strikes, he stacks the odds against himself. In the minors, his ERA was 4.50 when behind in the count.
Sonny Gray (0-4, 3.64 ERA) is happy to be out of New York and reunited with his pitching coach from his earlier glory days in Oakland. His strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates are strongly improved from last year, as are his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Gray complained that Yankee coaches forced him to throw a slider in tough situations. Perhaps he was mismanaged in some ways. Plus, playing in New York with extra pressure to perform isn't for everybody. Either way, he is throwing his slider more often this year and it has become his most effective pitch, yielding a .044 opposing slugging rate. He's strongly enhanced its horizontal movement and negative vertical movement. Despite its heavy movement, he nails it with 47.19% frequency in the lowest right spot in the zone. Overall, Gray thrives with variety, deception created by the similarity of his different pitches' release points, and unique movement.
In 93 career at-bats against Gray, Giant batters have six extra-base hits. Five of those came from Evan Longoria who is hitless in his last eight at-bats against Gray and has two hits in his last 32 at-bats.
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Arizona (18-13) at Colorado (15-17)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks 1H ML
Colorado's Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.34 ERA) is worth fading. Anderson has conceded five or six runs in all four of his starts while failing to surpass five innings.
Although Anderson dealt with some knee inflammation earlier this year, a broad picture of his advanced stats look innocuous. Nothing appears worrisome in terms of velocity, release point disparity, location tendencies, strike rate, and movement. But you get a completely different picture when you watch him against opposing batters, one that reveals an extremely worrisome tendency that was also apparent during Spring Training. He repeatedly misses his spots. He makes too many mistakes with particular pitches and opposing batters make him pay. Colorado is, in this regard, the worst place for him, because it is very easy in Denver for the ball to leave the yard. Anderson has conceded six home runs in his last three starts combined.
As a southpaw, Anderson also matches up poorly with a Diamondback lineup that is currently second-best in slugging against southpaws. Watch out in particular for Nick Ahmed, who is 5-for-10 with two homers in his career against Anderson.
Arizona's Robbie Ray (1-1, 4.18 ERA) is a strong bounce-back pitcher. He has allowed two runs or fewer in his last 10 starts following one in which he allowed a homer.
Ray is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher. Both pitches make up 84 percent of his arsenal. He has typically relied on his curveball as an effective third pitch. But it has yielded poor results so far. His curveball struggles serve him as a blessing in disguise because curveballs tend to struggle in Denver's high-altitude climate. Instead, Ray has been throwing his sinker more often. Opponents are batting .200 against it. He's generating more whiffs with his sinker because of its improved horizontal and vertical movement that makes it more elusive.
Colorado batters have solid numbers against Ray. But those numbers are meaningless tonight because the bulk of them came from when the Rockies faced him in Arizona, where Ray has suffered historically. In Ray's only start in Colorado last year, he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings, yielding a 2.41 FIP.
