Underrated Pitchers Keep Baltimore-San Francisco Clash 'Under'
San Francisco (22-33) at Baltimore (17-39)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Five Under
Ignore the fact that San Francisco southpaw Drew Pomeranz is 1-5 with a 6.45 ERA. His ERA is so high mostly because of two starts. In his last one, he conceded five earned runs in only two innings against Arizona, which has the highest slugging percentage against southpaws. In another start, he surrendered seven earned runs in 1.2 innings in Cincinnati's notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
Despite those two catastrophes, Pomeranz is a strong "under" pitcher. The "under" is 6-3 (66.7%) in his starts, 4-1 (80%) when he pitches on the road, and 2-0 both when favored and against AL East opponents.
Pomeranz relies primarily on his fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 78.37% of his arsenal. They complement each other in several key respects. He likes to use them to change the batter's eye level--by focusing his fastball's location in the top row of the strike zone and the curveball's location in the bottom row. With both pitches, he also keeps the batter off-balance through their average 11.04 velocity differential.
He also uses deception in that both pitches share nearly identical horizontal and vertical release points, such that batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. As a result, they have a hard time punctually adjusting their swing to either pitch. This difficulty is magnified by the level of difference between both pitches--they approach the batter with completely different velocity, movement, and location, thus requiring a greater adjustment from the batter.
Baltimore is like another home for Pomeranz, who is very familiar with Camden Yards because of his time playing for Boston. His career ERA in Baltimore is 2.78. For example, Jonathan Villar and Renato Nunez are combined 1-for-11 in their career against him. Pomeranz has struggled especially against right-handed batters. But, he has the benefit of facing a relatively lefty-heavy lineup in Baltimore, whose top hitters tend to specialize against right-handed pitchers. The O's have mustered two earned runs or fewer in each of their last three games against left-handed starters.
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Baltimore's Andrew Cashner (5-2, 4.55 ERA) looks to bounce back after an unlucky outing. In Colorado's hitters-friendly Coors Field, he yielded a 3.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). But, he allowed an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and conceded five runs. In two respective starts that directly followed an outing in which he allowed at least four runs, he conceded one run in 12 innings combined.
Cashner has vastly improved his performance from last year. His ERA is down .74 and he's striking out 1.46 more batters per nine innings. The key to his improvement in both respects is his change-up. He's throwing it more often and it's yielding a higher whiff rate and lower opposing BA. Hitters are batting only .183 against it. He hasn't changed much about it--its release points, location primarily along the borders of the strike zone, strike rate, velocity, and movement are essentially the same. He's simply throwing his best pitch more often.
Disregard Cashner's poor numbers against San Francisco batters because he hasn't faced the Giants since June of 2016. Cashner has been very consistent this year. Besides two tough-luck outings, he got hit relatively hard in a couple different starts against the Red Sox and Yankees. They were able to generate three runs or more against him.
But the Giants' lineup is on a much lower level, especially right now. In eight of their past 11 games, they've mustered three runs or fewer. Only one regular Giant batter is hitting above .250, Pablo Sandoval, who is in a 2-for-12 (.166) mini-slump. Buster Posey and Joe Panik are batting close to .250. But the former is hitting only .214 in his past seven days, the latter .185.
San Francisco (22-33) at Baltimore (17-39)
When: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Five Under
Ignore the fact that San Francisco southpaw Drew Pomeranz is 1-5 with a 6.45 ERA. His ERA is so high mostly because of two starts. In his last one, he conceded five earned runs in only two innings against Arizona, which has the highest slugging percentage against southpaws. In another start, he surrendered seven earned runs in 1.2 innings in Cincinnati's notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
Despite those two catastrophes, Pomeranz is a strong "under" pitcher. The "under" is 6-3 (66.7%) in his starts, 4-1 (80%) when he pitches on the road, and 2-0 both when favored and against AL East opponents.
Pomeranz relies primarily on his fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 78.37% of his arsenal. They complement each other in several key respects. He likes to use them to change the batter's eye level--by focusing his fastball's location in the top row of the strike zone and the curveball's location in the bottom row. With both pitches, he also keeps the batter off-balance through their average 11.04 velocity differential.
He also uses deception in that both pitches share nearly identical horizontal and vertical release points, such that batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. As a result, they have a hard time punctually adjusting their swing to either pitch. This difficulty is magnified by the level of difference between both pitches--they approach the batter with completely different velocity, movement, and location, thus requiring a greater adjustment from the batter.
Baltimore is like another home for Pomeranz, who is very familiar with Camden Yards because of his time playing for Boston. His career ERA in Baltimore is 2.78. For example, Jonathan Villar and Renato Nunez are combined 1-for-11 in their career against him. Pomeranz has struggled especially against right-handed batters. But, he has the benefit of facing a relatively lefty-heavy lineup in Baltimore, whose top hitters tend to specialize against right-handed pitchers. The O's have mustered two earned runs or fewer in each of their last three games against left-handed starters.
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Baltimore's Andrew Cashner (5-2, 4.55 ERA) looks to bounce back after an unlucky outing. In Colorado's hitters-friendly Coors Field, he yielded a 3.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). But, he allowed an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and conceded five runs. In two respective starts that directly followed an outing in which he allowed at least four runs, he conceded one run in 12 innings combined.
Cashner has vastly improved his performance from last year. His ERA is down .74 and he's striking out 1.46 more batters per nine innings. The key to his improvement in both respects is his change-up. He's throwing it more often and it's yielding a higher whiff rate and lower opposing BA. Hitters are batting only .183 against it. He hasn't changed much about it--its release points, location primarily along the borders of the strike zone, strike rate, velocity, and movement are essentially the same. He's simply throwing his best pitch more often.
Disregard Cashner's poor numbers against San Francisco batters because he hasn't faced the Giants since June of 2016. Cashner has been very consistent this year. Besides two tough-luck outings, he got hit relatively hard in a couple different starts against the Red Sox and Yankees. They were able to generate three runs or more against him.
But the Giants' lineup is on a much lower level, especially right now. In eight of their past 11 games, they've mustered three runs or fewer. Only one regular Giant batter is hitting above .250, Pablo Sandoval, who is in a 2-for-12 (.166) mini-slump. Buster Posey and Joe Panik are batting close to .250. But the former is hitting only .214 in his past seven days, the latter .185.
