Arizona And San Francisco Pitchers Are Snakebit In The Desert
San Francisco (19-25) at Arizona (25-21)
When: 4 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Half Over
San Francisco's Drew Pomeranz (1-4, 5.93 ERA) is in a tough spot, returning from almost a two-week stint on the injured list. Last year, he started six games off six or more rest days and was 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA in them.
Healthy or not, Pomeranz has had trouble with the long ball, giving up six homers in four road games. He's currently allowing 2.37 homers per nine innings, which is more than double his career average. This rate is interesting because his overall opposing fly ball percentage is as low as it's been since his rookie year in 2011. He's not consistently allowing hitters to get elevation on his pitches, but he's consistently making costly mistakes with individual pitches.
His sinker and fastball, which are his second- and third-favorite pitches and together compose 50 percent of his arsenal, continue to be problematic both in terms of home runs allowed and opposing slugging rate.
For some reason, he's throwing his sinker more often than he used to. This increased usage helps explain why he's having a tougher time throwing a first-pitch strike. Only 16% of his sinkers land in the strike zone. Opponents are able to wait for him to leave it down the middle. They slug .895 against it.
He's better at throwing strikes with his fastball, but it lands with 6.98% frequency in the heart of the plate and opponents take advantage with a .575 slugging rate.
The "over" is 10-3-2 when Arizona faces a left-handed starter. Pomeranz will struggle against an Arizona side that has the highest slugging rate in May against lefties and second-highest overall. Watch out especially for Eduardo Escobar, who is batting .333 and slugging .852 in his past seven days. He is also batting .394 and slugging .682 against lefties.
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Arizona's Robbie Ray (3-1, 3.14 ERA) is notorious for his home/road splits. In his professional career, 116 of his 122 starts came as a Diamondback and his ERA is 4.83 at home compared to 3.22 on the road.
Ray's command on any given day is unreliable. He'll walk one batter in one game and four the next. This season, he's walking 4.62 batters per nine innings. His inefficiency, which is evident even on his better days, is keeping him from lasting six innings, which he has done twice in nine starts.
The fact that he faces more batters in fewer innings creates added promise for San Francisco because Ray performs considerably worse throughout an outing. In his first time through the order, he's yielding a 0.82 ERA. But this ERA rises to 3.57 in his second time and 8.00 in his third time. In particular, his fastball velocity tends to dip, which helps explain why opponents slug .467 against it in the third inning, .583 in the fourth, and .546 in the fifth. The fastball is Ray's favorite pitch. He throws it 45% of the time, so his difficulty in maintaining its quality is worrisome.
San Francisco hitters have accrued 100 career at-bats against Ray and are batting .300. Look out especially for Evan Longoria, who is 5-for-8 (.625) with three doubles and a homer against him. The Giants had a rough start to the season against southpaws. But they've found success lately, especially against Ray's favorite pitch, the fastball. In May, they're slugging .563 against this pitch from lefties, which is seventh-best.
San Francisco (19-25) at Arizona (25-21)
When: 4 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Half Over
San Francisco's Drew Pomeranz (1-4, 5.93 ERA) is in a tough spot, returning from almost a two-week stint on the injured list. Last year, he started six games off six or more rest days and was 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA in them.
Healthy or not, Pomeranz has had trouble with the long ball, giving up six homers in four road games. He's currently allowing 2.37 homers per nine innings, which is more than double his career average. This rate is interesting because his overall opposing fly ball percentage is as low as it's been since his rookie year in 2011. He's not consistently allowing hitters to get elevation on his pitches, but he's consistently making costly mistakes with individual pitches.
His sinker and fastball, which are his second- and third-favorite pitches and together compose 50 percent of his arsenal, continue to be problematic both in terms of home runs allowed and opposing slugging rate.
For some reason, he's throwing his sinker more often than he used to. This increased usage helps explain why he's having a tougher time throwing a first-pitch strike. Only 16% of his sinkers land in the strike zone. Opponents are able to wait for him to leave it down the middle. They slug .895 against it.
He's better at throwing strikes with his fastball, but it lands with 6.98% frequency in the heart of the plate and opponents take advantage with a .575 slugging rate.
The "over" is 10-3-2 when Arizona faces a left-handed starter. Pomeranz will struggle against an Arizona side that has the highest slugging rate in May against lefties and second-highest overall. Watch out especially for Eduardo Escobar, who is batting .333 and slugging .852 in his past seven days. He is also batting .394 and slugging .682 against lefties.
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Arizona's Robbie Ray (3-1, 3.14 ERA) is notorious for his home/road splits. In his professional career, 116 of his 122 starts came as a Diamondback and his ERA is 4.83 at home compared to 3.22 on the road.
Ray's command on any given day is unreliable. He'll walk one batter in one game and four the next. This season, he's walking 4.62 batters per nine innings. His inefficiency, which is evident even on his better days, is keeping him from lasting six innings, which he has done twice in nine starts.
The fact that he faces more batters in fewer innings creates added promise for San Francisco because Ray performs considerably worse throughout an outing. In his first time through the order, he's yielding a 0.82 ERA. But this ERA rises to 3.57 in his second time and 8.00 in his third time. In particular, his fastball velocity tends to dip, which helps explain why opponents slug .467 against it in the third inning, .583 in the fourth, and .546 in the fifth. The fastball is Ray's favorite pitch. He throws it 45% of the time, so his difficulty in maintaining its quality is worrisome.
San Francisco hitters have accrued 100 career at-bats against Ray and are batting .300. Look out especially for Evan Longoria, who is 5-for-8 (.625) with three doubles and a homer against him. The Giants had a rough start to the season against southpaws. But they've found success lately, especially against Ray's favorite pitch, the fastball. In May, they're slugging .563 against this pitch from lefties, which is seventh-best.
