San Diego Will Slide Past Atlanta; Two Sox Teams In Low-Scoring Duel
San Diego (17-14) at Atlanta (15-15)
When: 12:10 ET
MLB Pick: Padres First-Half ML
I want to fade Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz (0-0, 6.00 ERA). I would never base a bet off of only one start. But, his poor debut outing represents a continuation of his struggles in rehab and there are some underlying problems with his pitching that are cause for extra concern.
In particular, his velocity is still far away from where it needs to be. His fastball and sinker are both two mph below his season average from last year. His slider is one mph below last year's average.
Since last year, his slider has been his second-favorite pitch based on frequency. Last year, it was by far his most effective pitch based on opposing BA. However, just like during his rehab outings, he is unable to command it. In his last start, he threw it for a ball with nine percent higher frequency than for a strike although, last year, he threw it more often for a strike. When he did throw it for a strike against his last opponent, it tended to land closer to the middle of the plate instead of on the bottom row of the strike zone. In addition, it has less horizontal movement (or less "slide") than last year and more vertical movement, which is generally bad for a slider, because it makes it easier for the batter to track. As a result, his slider yielded a .875 opposing slugging against his last opponent.
San Diego will be all the readier to exploit Folty's problems during the daytime, where they are 9-3, yielding +7.2 units, and are producing stronger batting statistics than at night. Watch out especially for Manny Machado, who is 4-for-6 in his career against Folty. Wil Myers has a homer in three career at-bats against him.
Southpaw starter Matt Strahm (0-2, 3.04 ERA) shows good form for San Diego. He has allowed four runs in his last four outings combined.
The slider is also important for Strahm. In three of his last four starts, he has thrown it as or more often than his fastball. Both pitches compose 78 percent of his arsenal, although he amps up his slider usage when runners enter scoring position. Opponents hit .191 against his slider and it's his favorite whiff pitch.
His slider is so effective because of its tricky glove-side movement, which is rare for a slider, and because of his proclivity to paint it consistently in the lowest-left corner of the strike zone. He can also elevate it in order to vary its location, which is also rare for a slider.
Atlanta's strong statistics against southpaws is strange because its lineup is led by a number of left-handed hitters. Anyhow, the slider creates an exception. The Braves hit .206 against the slider from lefties. Their slugging rate is .302 against this pitch from lefties, which ranks 18th and is well below the MLB average of .335. Strahm's slider, though, is well above average.
Brave batters have only seen Strahm 18 times. They have two hits so far.
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Boston (14-17) at Chicago (13-15)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Under
Boston's David Price (1-2, 3.60 ERA) shows good form, allowing four runs in his last three starts combined. He struck out 24 batters in those starts.
The southpaw Price has shown no problem reinventing himself somewhat after losing a little velocity last year. One improvement that he has made is to introduce more variety in his first-pitch selection to left-handed batters. By not relying on his sinker so often to start the count, he's less predictable. As a result, his first-pitch strike percentage is currently 68.4, which is the highest it's been since 2014. By starting off more often ahead of the count, he stacks the cards in his favor.
Price has succeeded against the White Sox even when he doesn't achieve a good first-pitch strike rate against them. In 41 at-bats against him, Chi Sox batters have five hits (.122).
Chicago's Lucas Giolito (2-1, 5.30 ERA) is a source of hope because he was rated as a high prospect and because there's a lot to like about his pitching when you break it down.
He loves to throw his fastball, but he also relies on a change-up, curve, and slider with combined 44 percent frequency. Opponents are batting .214 against the change-up, .222 against his curveball, and .083 against his slider. His change-up introduces a well above-average 11.5 mph change of pace relative to his fastball, which is especially difficult for batters to deal with because both pitches share very similar release points, making it hard to tell which pitch he's throwing. He loves his slider when he's ahead of the count against same-handed batters and pounds it with 47% frequency into the two lowest-right corners of the zone. His curveball is known for its tricky, strong negative vertical movement.
Giolito allowed two hits and one run in 6.1 innings against Boston last year. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Andrew Benintendi are combined 0-for-9 against him.
Boston is in just the spot to repeat its poor performance against Giolito. I looked at how the Red Sox hit through five innings in the first game of a road trip. Dating to last year, the Red Sox accrued one run or zero runs eight out of its last 12 times. In the other four times, they produced two or three runs. This year, Boston's travel difficulties have already amounted to two losses in two road trip openers in which they were scored four combined runs.
San Diego (17-14) at Atlanta (15-15)
When: 12:10 ET
MLB Pick: Padres First-Half ML
I want to fade Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz (0-0, 6.00 ERA). I would never base a bet off of only one start. But, his poor debut outing represents a continuation of his struggles in rehab and there are some underlying problems with his pitching that are cause for extra concern.
In particular, his velocity is still far away from where it needs to be. His fastball and sinker are both two mph below his season average from last year. His slider is one mph below last year's average.
Since last year, his slider has been his second-favorite pitch based on frequency. Last year, it was by far his most effective pitch based on opposing BA. However, just like during his rehab outings, he is unable to command it. In his last start, he threw it for a ball with nine percent higher frequency than for a strike although, last year, he threw it more often for a strike. When he did throw it for a strike against his last opponent, it tended to land closer to the middle of the plate instead of on the bottom row of the strike zone. In addition, it has less horizontal movement (or less "slide") than last year and more vertical movement, which is generally bad for a slider, because it makes it easier for the batter to track. As a result, his slider yielded a .875 opposing slugging against his last opponent.
San Diego will be all the readier to exploit Folty's problems during the daytime, where they are 9-3, yielding +7.2 units, and are producing stronger batting statistics than at night. Watch out especially for Manny Machado, who is 4-for-6 in his career against Folty. Wil Myers has a homer in three career at-bats against him.
Southpaw starter Matt Strahm (0-2, 3.04 ERA) shows good form for San Diego. He has allowed four runs in his last four outings combined.
The slider is also important for Strahm. In three of his last four starts, he has thrown it as or more often than his fastball. Both pitches compose 78 percent of his arsenal, although he amps up his slider usage when runners enter scoring position. Opponents hit .191 against his slider and it's his favorite whiff pitch.
His slider is so effective because of its tricky glove-side movement, which is rare for a slider, and because of his proclivity to paint it consistently in the lowest-left corner of the strike zone. He can also elevate it in order to vary its location, which is also rare for a slider.
Atlanta's strong statistics against southpaws is strange because its lineup is led by a number of left-handed hitters. Anyhow, the slider creates an exception. The Braves hit .206 against the slider from lefties. Their slugging rate is .302 against this pitch from lefties, which ranks 18th and is well below the MLB average of .335. Strahm's slider, though, is well above average.
Brave batters have only seen Strahm 18 times. They have two hits so far.
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Boston (14-17) at Chicago (13-15)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Under
Boston's David Price (1-2, 3.60 ERA) shows good form, allowing four runs in his last three starts combined. He struck out 24 batters in those starts.
The southpaw Price has shown no problem reinventing himself somewhat after losing a little velocity last year. One improvement that he has made is to introduce more variety in his first-pitch selection to left-handed batters. By not relying on his sinker so often to start the count, he's less predictable. As a result, his first-pitch strike percentage is currently 68.4, which is the highest it's been since 2014. By starting off more often ahead of the count, he stacks the cards in his favor.
Price has succeeded against the White Sox even when he doesn't achieve a good first-pitch strike rate against them. In 41 at-bats against him, Chi Sox batters have five hits (.122).
Chicago's Lucas Giolito (2-1, 5.30 ERA) is a source of hope because he was rated as a high prospect and because there's a lot to like about his pitching when you break it down.
He loves to throw his fastball, but he also relies on a change-up, curve, and slider with combined 44 percent frequency. Opponents are batting .214 against the change-up, .222 against his curveball, and .083 against his slider. His change-up introduces a well above-average 11.5 mph change of pace relative to his fastball, which is especially difficult for batters to deal with because both pitches share very similar release points, making it hard to tell which pitch he's throwing. He loves his slider when he's ahead of the count against same-handed batters and pounds it with 47% frequency into the two lowest-right corners of the zone. His curveball is known for its tricky, strong negative vertical movement.
Giolito allowed two hits and one run in 6.1 innings against Boston last year. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Andrew Benintendi are combined 0-for-9 against him.
Boston is in just the spot to repeat its poor performance against Giolito. I looked at how the Red Sox hit through five innings in the first game of a road trip. Dating to last year, the Red Sox accrued one run or zero runs eight out of its last 12 times. In the other four times, they produced two or three runs. This year, Boston's travel difficulties have already amounted to two losses in two road trip openers in which they were scored four combined runs.
