Bet This NBA Parlay at (+257 ) on Thursday
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minnesota
Minnesota Threes
On offense, Minnesota loves to shoot threes.
A lot of Minnesota supporters have complained about its shooting volume.
These complaints have merit because this shot profile is far from ideal for the Timberwolves given their players' skill sets.
Concrete evidence for the merit of these complaints is in the following statistics: Minnesota attempts the most threes per game but ranks outside the top 10 in three-point percentage.
Its three-point percentage in home games would position the team outside the top 20 if it were a season-long overall statistic.
Whether these complainers are right or not, the Timberwolves remain determined to shoot a lot of threes.
Spur Perimeter Defense
One reason why I like San Antonio's defense is the strength of its perimeter defense.
The Spurs rank eighth at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Moreover, they allow open three-point attempts with the fifth-lowest frequency and wide-open threes with the 10th-lowest frequency.
These statistics indicate that they excel at running opponents off the three-point line and at making three-point attempts difficult for them.
One key defender is Josh Richardson whose lateral quickness helps him defend the perimeter solidly both on and off the ball.
Joshua Primo with his physical tools offers a lot of upside.
These guys will hurt Minnesota badly as it tries to score in its favorite way.
Jakob Poeltl
Spur defenders can guard the perimeter more closely because they have an elite rim protector behind them in the form of center Jakob Poeltl.
As evident in the defensive field goal percentage that he's allowed, Poeltl does a superb job of making opposing shot attempts around the basket difficult.
He is a great example of somebody who excels athletically without looking or being very athletic.
Poeltl is smart, aware, and has great technique, keeping his hands vertical while receiving contact from opposing rim-attackers.
Given his abilities, he ably cleans up whatever messes Spur perimeter defenders allow when they focus on limiting and contesting opposing three-point attempts, which makes them more vulnerable to the dribble drive.
Wait, What?
It's no hidden secret that San Antonio's overall defensive numbers aren't very attractive.
These numbers explain why the total posted by NBA Oddsmakers is as high as it is.
So, how do we square these undeniable statistics with my account of the Spur defense above?
The point is the matchup. San Antonio is at an advantage, that oddsmakers do not properly account for, against a team that is more reliant on threes.
This advantage explains why the Spurs just dominated Portland twice in a row.
Similar to Minnesota, Portland relies heavily on the three-ball. Against the Spurs with their vaunted perimeter defense, Portland most recently struggled to reach 90 points.
Ball-Screen Game
Offensively, San Antonio favors the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Dejounte Murray is their top candidate to execute this play type, but he has been ruled out for tonight's game with an illness.
Tre Jones is Murray's backup and is filling in for him right now.
Now, Jones is not the scorer that Murray is.
But it would still be ridiculous to suggest that Murray's absence should endanger San Antonio's ability to cover the spread.
Jones has done a terrific job filling in for Murray. He won't wow people with his range as a shooter, but he excels at using his speed to race to the basket where he can suck in defenders before kicking the ball back out.
His speed adds a crucial physical element to his endeavors as a distributor, where he succeeds primarily because of his strong vision.
Jones is comfortable now as a starting point guard in the NBA and he can ably manage the Spur offense.
That being said, Minnesota's ball-screen defense won't allow the "over" to come close to hitting as it is one of the best in terms of limiting points on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The Verdict
Minnesota's top-level ball-screen defense and San Antonio's superb perimeter defense will ensure a low-scoring affair.
This will be a close game where, supported by stronger rim protection and composed by Tre Jones at point guard, the Spurs will easily cover the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs +9 at -115 & Under 238.5 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minnesota
Minnesota Threes
On offense, Minnesota loves to shoot threes.
A lot of Minnesota supporters have complained about its shooting volume.
These complaints have merit because this shot profile is far from ideal for the Timberwolves given their players' skill sets.
Concrete evidence for the merit of these complaints is in the following statistics: Minnesota attempts the most threes per game but ranks outside the top 10 in three-point percentage.
Its three-point percentage in home games would position the team outside the top 20 if it were a season-long overall statistic.
Whether these complainers are right or not, the Timberwolves remain determined to shoot a lot of threes.
Spur Perimeter Defense
One reason why I like San Antonio's defense is the strength of its perimeter defense.
The Spurs rank eighth at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Moreover, they allow open three-point attempts with the fifth-lowest frequency and wide-open threes with the 10th-lowest frequency.
These statistics indicate that they excel at running opponents off the three-point line and at making three-point attempts difficult for them.
One key defender is Josh Richardson whose lateral quickness helps him defend the perimeter solidly both on and off the ball.
Joshua Primo with his physical tools offers a lot of upside.
These guys will hurt Minnesota badly as it tries to score in its favorite way.
Jakob Poeltl
Spur defenders can guard the perimeter more closely because they have an elite rim protector behind them in the form of center Jakob Poeltl.
As evident in the defensive field goal percentage that he's allowed, Poeltl does a superb job of making opposing shot attempts around the basket difficult.
He is a great example of somebody who excels athletically without looking or being very athletic.
Poeltl is smart, aware, and has great technique, keeping his hands vertical while receiving contact from opposing rim-attackers.
Given his abilities, he ably cleans up whatever messes Spur perimeter defenders allow when they focus on limiting and contesting opposing three-point attempts, which makes them more vulnerable to the dribble drive.
Wait, What?
It's no hidden secret that San Antonio's overall defensive numbers aren't very attractive.
These numbers explain why the total posted by NBA Oddsmakers is as high as it is.
So, how do we square these undeniable statistics with my account of the Spur defense above?
The point is the matchup. San Antonio is at an advantage, that oddsmakers do not properly account for, against a team that is more reliant on threes.
This advantage explains why the Spurs just dominated Portland twice in a row.
Similar to Minnesota, Portland relies heavily on the three-ball. Against the Spurs with their vaunted perimeter defense, Portland most recently struggled to reach 90 points.
Ball-Screen Game
Offensively, San Antonio favors the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Dejounte Murray is their top candidate to execute this play type, but he has been ruled out for tonight's game with an illness.
Tre Jones is Murray's backup and is filling in for him right now.
Now, Jones is not the scorer that Murray is.
But it would still be ridiculous to suggest that Murray's absence should endanger San Antonio's ability to cover the spread.
Jones has done a terrific job filling in for Murray. He won't wow people with his range as a shooter, but he excels at using his speed to race to the basket where he can suck in defenders before kicking the ball back out.
His speed adds a crucial physical element to his endeavors as a distributor, where he succeeds primarily because of his strong vision.
Jones is comfortable now as a starting point guard in the NBA and he can ably manage the Spur offense.
That being said, Minnesota's ball-screen defense won't allow the "over" to come close to hitting as it is one of the best in terms of limiting points on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The Verdict
Minnesota's top-level ball-screen defense and San Antonio's superb perimeter defense will ensure a low-scoring affair.
This will be a close game where, supported by stronger rim protection and composed by Tre Jones at point guard, the Spurs will easily cover the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs +9 at -115 & Under 238.5 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
