San Antonio/Denver Total

[BetCrimes1984]

San Antonio plays Denver twice over the next 4 days. For San An, they play both meetings in the 2nd game of a B2B situation (the 2nd game off a road meeting with run n gun Phoenix the night before).

So whats the chase? An Under result....


These 2 teams are 20-3 to Under thru their last 23 meetings, and have gone Under their last 10 straight, with each side individually breaking 100 pts (or more) just once over that recent span of games. 2 of the 3 Overs went over the opening line by a single basket. The sole Over that went over the line easily was a playoff game.

Games in Denver - 8-2 to Under, 181.4 pts average
Games in San An - 12-1 to Under, 182.0 pts average


And, a little more recently...


San Antonio

- is 5-0 to Under at an average of 174.2 pts their last 5 B2B games.

- is 4-0 to Under at an average of 165.5 points the last 4 times they've played off a game that totaled in excess of 200 pts (their last game totaled 205 pts).

- is 7-3 to Under at an average of 177.0 points their last 10 home games.

- is 8-2 to Under at an average of 181.5 points their last 10 home games vs teams challenging for playoff spots.


Denver

- is 8-3-1 to Under at an average of 208.4 pts their last 12 home games vs teams challenging for playoff spots.

- is 5-1 to Under at an average of 199.1 points their last 6 road games vs teams challenging for playoff spots.

- Denver has paid out on Over in 11 of their last 15 games, so I'm expecting a correction (to whatever extent) to appear in the near future re: their totals output (their total record before this present stretch was already 23-21-1 in favour of Over, so it's not like this present output is compensating for any "heavily under biased ways" from earlier in the season).


Given the history between these 2 teams, combined with recent realities I simply think the odds are heavily in favour that at least 1 of the coming 2 contests between these 2 teams will play out in keeping with recent history. The fact the Spurs play both games in B2B situations is what seals my willingness to chase here. 5 straight Overs in B2B situations, with a lousy mid 170s pts average, as the season enters crunch time (after they went 5-2 to Over in B2Bs before this period/covering the early season goings-on) is suddenly going to turn into 2 straight Overs vs Denver, where their history simply flatly outright denies such an occurrence? What helps is Denver's current heavy Over ways, making it hard for surface bettors to ignore present reality in place of history - Denver does average 224.2 pts/game since the ASB, but crucially the best 2 teams they've faced are their sole 2 Under results, neither cracking 200 pts.


Step 1, small bet on Under 200.5 points

 

[TheSportsThing]

Great info on this writeup. Will be tailing you. GL

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BOL TST - the earlier contest in San An between these 2 teams this season opened 204.5, so theres no reason to suspect it won't open much differently in a few days if they go Over here, meaning for these 2 teams to deliver 2 Overs they'll have to surpass 200 pts in consecutive games, where they havent managed such a feat over their last 23 meetings.

 

[TheSportsThing]

That is some trend to the Under mainly b/c Denver has no D and SA controls the tempo it seems. The fact that I do like SA today makes the Under look more appealing. Hope all goes well.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

b/c Denver has no D and SA controls the tempo it seems.

Thats exactly it. SAS is going to want to indulge in consecutive B2B "headless chicken" run-arounds? Maybe 1 (forced by Denver dominance, SAS's winning streak won't last forever), but I simply don't see 2.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

GL BC, I'm on the UNDER as well and about to watch this game so hopefully we get some beer money out of this one.

 

[KobeJames823]

I like the under in this series, just like whenever SA and Houston plays its like a 150 point game every time.

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

...and the chase is on...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Not suprised Denver won an Over result. Don't see them winning in San An, where the home side will playing a 4th in 5.

 

[divol]

Under looks great in SA though. I believe in playing under in Spurs and Hawks home games and Over in their road games.
Spurs will be coming after a loss to the running Suns and two straight losses to offensive minded teams will focus on the defense and low score and at home they will get the Under.

 

[tuck321]

Can you imagine how Mad Pop is. The oldest team in the NBA started racing around first half in a b-b Friday and surprise, your under and my side both blink out as they have nothing left in the second half including the strength to play d. Not seeing that happen again. GL

 

[Master P]

looks like we have a bet at the nuggets-spurs 202.5 here if im not mistaken (step 2)

:cheers:

 

[STEED]

BOL

 

[gpcyan3]

I like this one and I have made it a semi-large play tonight.

Aside from the overwhelming information that is presented by BC, Denver is currently on an 8-2 over run in their past 10. Over the past 6 results between these two @ SA the total has never reached over 200 points. The past results have a much lower avg, eg: 193,171,185,184,177,175 . I don't know the exact average but it seems to be around 180 or so...

It seems apparent to me that since the line has moved a point or two so far that other bettors are quite aware of these past results too.

With all this combined I had to bite on this one, even though I got the number @ 201 since I was tied up at work all day.

Let's cash this ticket BC. GL to both of us.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Normally, my chases go something like 500-700 then, if the first step loses, anything from 1500-3000. But I'm in a bind here, because I simply do not play totals that have dropped to this degree - 204.5 opener, I see 200.5 right now. This means this game can finish 201-202-203-204, and I record it as the expected Under result, yet still lose my bet: however SAS are also 6-0 to Under at home this season off 2+ road games.

That I'm still willing to consider this rather than simply right off the loss the other night is the fact that I'm expecting an under correction after the tidal wave of recent Overs. So my attitude (given this game is the last sequentially tonight) is to see in what the early results look like and, if it looks as thou a new Under run has started (re; the trend thread) I'll bet as much as I need to here to simply win back what I staked for the first leg of the chase. If someone is coming to this bet without having touched the first game between these 2, I'd say you've missed the boat now the total has dropped 4 points, and to pass.
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edit: I settled on betting enough to simply win back my sum from the first game.