Saints vs. Packers Monday Night Football Odds and Betting Pick
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Monday, December 23, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field
New Orleans' Defensive Improvement
One trend already explains why the Saints, dogged by two touchdowns in this matchup, are worth a completely confident investment.
In their last five games, the Saints have held their opponent to 21 points or fewer.
Victims of their defense include the Rams, whose offense is arguably one of the best when both of their best wide receivers are healthy.
New Orleans limited them — Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp — to a combined total of 73 receiving yards.
The Saints struggled against Los Angeles' running back in that game but have improved against running backs since then.
In their last two games, they held the Giants' Tyrone Tracy Jr. to 2.8 YPC on 16 carries and Washington's Brian Robinson Jr. to 3.1 YPC on 21 carries.
Evidently, they have the personnel to be very good defensively, and they remain motivated despite the downward spiral that their season is suffering.
Dennis Allen's firing as head coach — after the embarrassing loss to Carolina — has had a positive impact on this defense, which initiated its trend of holding opponents to 21 points or fewer after Allen departed.
Joe Woods' Play-Calling and Scheme
We see the strength of defensive coordinator Joe Woods in general.
He struggles against mobile quarterbacks like Washington's Jayden Daniels, but this struggle will not take place on Monday, because Green Bay doesn't have a quarterback who likes to run.
Green Bay's Jordan Love averages about six rushing yards per game.
Love will have to pass against a defense that has proven strong even against the likes of the Rams with their great wide receivers.
Joe Woods' play-calling is revitalizing his defense, which is clearly comfortable with his scheme.
Woods runs a relatively high frequency of Cover 1, which is man-to-man coverage with one high safety.
Love has had difficulty with man coverage this year, ranking in the bottom half in passer rating against man coverage.
Green Bay's Overrated Offense
The Packers might seem to have a prolific offense if you look at their scores in recent weeks.
It certainly is a good offense but not one that can be counted on to score enough points to cover the spread against the Saints.
The reality is that the Packers have relied extensively on turnovers in order to score as many points as they do.
Against the Dolphins, for example, they recovered a muffed punt before completing a nine-yard touchdown drive.
Most recently, they benefitted from the inexperience and incompetence of Seattle's backup quarterback.
Spencer Rattler's Growth
New Orleans' Spencer Rattler entered last week's game with his team down 17-0 to heavily favored Washington.
He led his team to a comeback that fell short by one point, as the Commanders won 20-19 after the Saints failed to convert a two-point attempt.
Rattler is looked down upon because of his poor record and stats this year, but such derision is unjustified because, before last week, he had to play behind an offensive line that was battered with injury.
His growth is evident, first of all, in his ability to avoid the turnovers that Green Bay will depend on him committing.
In his last three games, in which he's attempted a combined total of 70 passes, he has thrown zero interceptions.
Rattler is a mobile figure who can be effective outside the pocket, where video footage shows his ability to continue looking downfield in order to make big plays. He has also grown inside the pocket, where he maintains awareness, as evident in his disposition to throw the ball away when needed.
Overall, Rattler shows good instincts and is finally complementing that preexistent instinct with useful learning experiences.
Green Bay this year has not held a single offense to a single-digit point total, and a double-digit point total will suffice for the Saints to cover the spread.
Rattler's second half last week, in which he helped the Saints score 19 points, provides a lot for him to build off of.
Kendre Miller
Last week, Kendre Miller received most of the carries for New Orleans because starting running back Alvin Kamara was injured.
Miller averaged 5.1 YPC. He is a talented running back who has merely been set back by injuries.
His strong acceleration helps give him big-play ability on the ground. He has also proven to be a reliable and effective pass-catcher.
He has the dual ability as a runner and a pass-catcher to make New Orleans not miss Kamara if Kamara should prove unable to play.
Takeaway
With Rattler growing and at least Miller healthy, the Saints have the personnel on offense to score 20 points against Green Bay.
Their defense, benefitting from Allen's departure, has become a reliable and well-tested unit that is holding teams to 21 points or fewer.
Best Bet: Saints +14 at -105 with Bet365
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Monday, December 23, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field
New Orleans' Defensive Improvement
One trend already explains why the Saints, dogged by two touchdowns in this matchup, are worth a completely confident investment.
In their last five games, the Saints have held their opponent to 21 points or fewer.
Victims of their defense include the Rams, whose offense is arguably one of the best when both of their best wide receivers are healthy.
New Orleans limited them — Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp — to a combined total of 73 receiving yards.
The Saints struggled against Los Angeles' running back in that game but have improved against running backs since then.
In their last two games, they held the Giants' Tyrone Tracy Jr. to 2.8 YPC on 16 carries and Washington's Brian Robinson Jr. to 3.1 YPC on 21 carries.
Evidently, they have the personnel to be very good defensively, and they remain motivated despite the downward spiral that their season is suffering.
Dennis Allen's firing as head coach — after the embarrassing loss to Carolina — has had a positive impact on this defense, which initiated its trend of holding opponents to 21 points or fewer after Allen departed.
Joe Woods' Play-Calling and Scheme
We see the strength of defensive coordinator Joe Woods in general.
He struggles against mobile quarterbacks like Washington's Jayden Daniels, but this struggle will not take place on Monday, because Green Bay doesn't have a quarterback who likes to run.
Green Bay's Jordan Love averages about six rushing yards per game.
Love will have to pass against a defense that has proven strong even against the likes of the Rams with their great wide receivers.
Joe Woods' play-calling is revitalizing his defense, which is clearly comfortable with his scheme.
Woods runs a relatively high frequency of Cover 1, which is man-to-man coverage with one high safety.
Love has had difficulty with man coverage this year, ranking in the bottom half in passer rating against man coverage.
Green Bay's Overrated Offense
The Packers might seem to have a prolific offense if you look at their scores in recent weeks.
It certainly is a good offense but not one that can be counted on to score enough points to cover the spread against the Saints.
The reality is that the Packers have relied extensively on turnovers in order to score as many points as they do.
Against the Dolphins, for example, they recovered a muffed punt before completing a nine-yard touchdown drive.
Most recently, they benefitted from the inexperience and incompetence of Seattle's backup quarterback.
Spencer Rattler's Growth
New Orleans' Spencer Rattler entered last week's game with his team down 17-0 to heavily favored Washington.
He led his team to a comeback that fell short by one point, as the Commanders won 20-19 after the Saints failed to convert a two-point attempt.
Rattler is looked down upon because of his poor record and stats this year, but such derision is unjustified because, before last week, he had to play behind an offensive line that was battered with injury.
His growth is evident, first of all, in his ability to avoid the turnovers that Green Bay will depend on him committing.
In his last three games, in which he's attempted a combined total of 70 passes, he has thrown zero interceptions.
Rattler is a mobile figure who can be effective outside the pocket, where video footage shows his ability to continue looking downfield in order to make big plays. He has also grown inside the pocket, where he maintains awareness, as evident in his disposition to throw the ball away when needed.
Overall, Rattler shows good instincts and is finally complementing that preexistent instinct with useful learning experiences.
Green Bay this year has not held a single offense to a single-digit point total, and a double-digit point total will suffice for the Saints to cover the spread.
Rattler's second half last week, in which he helped the Saints score 19 points, provides a lot for him to build off of.
Kendre Miller
Last week, Kendre Miller received most of the carries for New Orleans because starting running back Alvin Kamara was injured.
Miller averaged 5.1 YPC. He is a talented running back who has merely been set back by injuries.
His strong acceleration helps give him big-play ability on the ground. He has also proven to be a reliable and effective pass-catcher.
He has the dual ability as a runner and a pass-catcher to make New Orleans not miss Kamara if Kamara should prove unable to play.
Takeaway
With Rattler growing and at least Miller healthy, the Saints have the personnel on offense to score 20 points against Green Bay.
Their defense, benefitting from Allen's departure, has become a reliable and well-tested unit that is holding teams to 21 points or fewer.
Best Bet: Saints +14 at -105 with Bet365
