Our Top NFL Week 14 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday's Games
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Zach Wilson
New York wants to develop its rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson.
This season, Wilson has shown great need to develop. He is failing to convert 60 percent of his passes and he has thrown more than twice as many interceptions as touchdowns.
His head coach did lavish him with praise for last week's performance.
It was his second-best of the season in terms of passer rating. An 83.9 passer rating is normally nothing to praise, though.
Maybe, given his youth and the lack of talent surrounding him, there just isn't much more to hope for.
His top target (Elijah Moore) is another rookie while his second- and third-leading targets (Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder) and his top healthy running back (Tevin Coleman) were lackluster free agent acquisitions whom their previous teams decided to move past.
Saints Pass Defense
As Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott, despite having a stacked wide receiving crew at his disposal, can most recently confirm, the Saints own one of the NFL's better pass defenses.
They rank ninth in limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their secondary is spearheaded by three-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore.
Based on 40 times, Lattimore certainly has the speed to keep up with New York's top receiver, Moore. As a result, Lattimore is equipped to negate an important asset of Moore's game.
A nice bonus for the Saints would be the return of top pass-rusher Marcus Davenport. He was on a sack-heavy hot streak before his shoulder injury forced him to miss his team's Week 12 contest.
Davenport is currently listed as "day-to-day." You should increase your wager size if he's good to go for this game.
Saint Offense
New Orleans' losses have either witnessed the opponent amassing amazing rushing totals -- Philadelphia did this -- or its offense helping the opponent by suffering massive inefficiency or by turning the ball over too many times.
With running backs Coleman and Ty Johnson, both of whom struggle to average four YPC, the Jets won't dominate on the ground at all let alone like the Eagles did.
New York's historically bad defense, though, won't compel the Saint offense to struggle like it did in its team's losses.
It is true that Saint quarterback Taysom Hill threw four interceptions last week.
But that's because New Orleans had to play from behind. Hill is not a passing quarterback. He plays to his strengths when his team leads.
Last week, Hill amassed 101 rushing yards on 11 carries. This performance reflects his strength as a runner.
Alvin Kamara was achieving limited participation in practices and had been listed as 'questionable' before being ruled 'out' for the game against Dallas.
It would seem, therefore, that the Saints will have their star running back for this game.
Hill and bulldozer Mark Ingram will anyhow be effective weapons against a Jet run defense that ranks 26th in limiting opposing YPC and 27th in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Titan Offense
With injuries to wide receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones and to running back Derrick Henry, Tennessee lacks any stars in its offense.
Add quarterback Ryan Tannehill's regression this season to the picture -- his passer rating is down 21.8 points from last year -- and you have a very unimpressive offense.
Tennessee's recent score lines justify this conclusion. While the Titans scored 28 points against the Rams, they failed to reach 200 total yards, as they benefitted from short field position and Ram penalties and turnovers.
Then, they mustered 23 points against the Saints on 264 total yards, 13 versus Houston, and then 13 at New England.
Without a pick-six or similar type of unlikely play, the Titans regularly struggle to manage 20 points.
Jaguar Defense
Jacksonville's defense just needs to not be awful for the "under" to hit.
Looking at the games in which the Jaguars have allowed 30 or more points or in which the Jaguar run defense has struggled, a consistent feature has been the existence of electric or top-level playmakers.
Running backs like Atlanta's Cordarrelle Patterson with his 4.6 YPC and 518 receiving yards and San Francisco's 1000-yard wide receiver Deebo Samuel are known for being dynamic and difficult to contain in space. Both thrived against the Jaguars on the ground, as did high-level running back Jonathan Taylor.
But the Titans are relying on backups and former practice squad guys at the running back position. Plus, Jacksonville's run defense is good against weaker rush attacks. The Jags rank a respectable ninth at limiting opposing YPC.
Without a guy like Derrick Henry, the play-action is less available to Tannehill, who is dependent on this play-type. All four of his interceptions against Houston, for example, came when dropping back.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Titan Defense
With Trevor Lawrence, who many say looks like a bust, and his lack of surrounding talent, the Jaguars haven't exceeded 17 points in game since October 17 in London.
One reason why the Titan defense will add to this trend is that it is excellent after a bye week.
Under Coach Vrabel, the Titans after a bye week held Dallas to 14 points in 2018, an offensively more able Jacksonville to 20 points in 2019 in a game that the Titans led 35-3 towards the end of the third quarter, and Buffalo to 16 points last season.
What makes me like the "under" even more is that Lawrence has been way more careful with the football. Dialing back his previous aggressiveness, as evident in his lower YPA, he has thrown only one interception since October.
Lawrence's caution will help keep Tennessee from being gifted points while the game will be too close for the Titans to allow Lawrence to achieve any of his famous garbage-time stat-padding.
The Verdict
This is a must-win game for New Orleans' playoff hopes. Fortunately, the Saints will get to be run-first largely thanks to the advantage that its strong pass defense enjoys against the Jets' rookie-led, pass-first offense.
Tennessee will win again off a bye week, but its lack of offensive firepower and Jacksonville's improved defense in addition to the Jaguars' anemic offense and Tennessee's defense off the bye will keep the scoring low. I expect a 20-10 type game.
For the above reasons, play the Saints ATS and the Jaguars/Titans "under."
Best Bet: Parlay Saints -6 at -110 & Jaguars/Titans Under 44 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Zach Wilson
New York wants to develop its rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson.
This season, Wilson has shown great need to develop. He is failing to convert 60 percent of his passes and he has thrown more than twice as many interceptions as touchdowns.
His head coach did lavish him with praise for last week's performance.
It was his second-best of the season in terms of passer rating. An 83.9 passer rating is normally nothing to praise, though.
Maybe, given his youth and the lack of talent surrounding him, there just isn't much more to hope for.
His top target (Elijah Moore) is another rookie while his second- and third-leading targets (Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder) and his top healthy running back (Tevin Coleman) were lackluster free agent acquisitions whom their previous teams decided to move past.
Saints Pass Defense
As Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott, despite having a stacked wide receiving crew at his disposal, can most recently confirm, the Saints own one of the NFL's better pass defenses.
They rank ninth in limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their secondary is spearheaded by three-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore.
Based on 40 times, Lattimore certainly has the speed to keep up with New York's top receiver, Moore. As a result, Lattimore is equipped to negate an important asset of Moore's game.
A nice bonus for the Saints would be the return of top pass-rusher Marcus Davenport. He was on a sack-heavy hot streak before his shoulder injury forced him to miss his team's Week 12 contest.
Davenport is currently listed as "day-to-day." You should increase your wager size if he's good to go for this game.
Saint Offense
New Orleans' losses have either witnessed the opponent amassing amazing rushing totals -- Philadelphia did this -- or its offense helping the opponent by suffering massive inefficiency or by turning the ball over too many times.
With running backs Coleman and Ty Johnson, both of whom struggle to average four YPC, the Jets won't dominate on the ground at all let alone like the Eagles did.
New York's historically bad defense, though, won't compel the Saint offense to struggle like it did in its team's losses.
It is true that Saint quarterback Taysom Hill threw four interceptions last week.
But that's because New Orleans had to play from behind. Hill is not a passing quarterback. He plays to his strengths when his team leads.
Last week, Hill amassed 101 rushing yards on 11 carries. This performance reflects his strength as a runner.
Alvin Kamara was achieving limited participation in practices and had been listed as 'questionable' before being ruled 'out' for the game against Dallas.
It would seem, therefore, that the Saints will have their star running back for this game.
Hill and bulldozer Mark Ingram will anyhow be effective weapons against a Jet run defense that ranks 26th in limiting opposing YPC and 27th in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Titan Offense
With injuries to wide receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones and to running back Derrick Henry, Tennessee lacks any stars in its offense.
Add quarterback Ryan Tannehill's regression this season to the picture -- his passer rating is down 21.8 points from last year -- and you have a very unimpressive offense.
Tennessee's recent score lines justify this conclusion. While the Titans scored 28 points against the Rams, they failed to reach 200 total yards, as they benefitted from short field position and Ram penalties and turnovers.
Then, they mustered 23 points against the Saints on 264 total yards, 13 versus Houston, and then 13 at New England.
Without a pick-six or similar type of unlikely play, the Titans regularly struggle to manage 20 points.
Jaguar Defense
Jacksonville's defense just needs to not be awful for the "under" to hit.
Looking at the games in which the Jaguars have allowed 30 or more points or in which the Jaguar run defense has struggled, a consistent feature has been the existence of electric or top-level playmakers.
Running backs like Atlanta's Cordarrelle Patterson with his 4.6 YPC and 518 receiving yards and San Francisco's 1000-yard wide receiver Deebo Samuel are known for being dynamic and difficult to contain in space. Both thrived against the Jaguars on the ground, as did high-level running back Jonathan Taylor.
But the Titans are relying on backups and former practice squad guys at the running back position. Plus, Jacksonville's run defense is good against weaker rush attacks. The Jags rank a respectable ninth at limiting opposing YPC.
Without a guy like Derrick Henry, the play-action is less available to Tannehill, who is dependent on this play-type. All four of his interceptions against Houston, for example, came when dropping back.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Titan Defense
With Trevor Lawrence, who many say looks like a bust, and his lack of surrounding talent, the Jaguars haven't exceeded 17 points in game since October 17 in London.
One reason why the Titan defense will add to this trend is that it is excellent after a bye week.
Under Coach Vrabel, the Titans after a bye week held Dallas to 14 points in 2018, an offensively more able Jacksonville to 20 points in 2019 in a game that the Titans led 35-3 towards the end of the third quarter, and Buffalo to 16 points last season.
What makes me like the "under" even more is that Lawrence has been way more careful with the football. Dialing back his previous aggressiveness, as evident in his lower YPA, he has thrown only one interception since October.
Lawrence's caution will help keep Tennessee from being gifted points while the game will be too close for the Titans to allow Lawrence to achieve any of his famous garbage-time stat-padding.
The Verdict
This is a must-win game for New Orleans' playoff hopes. Fortunately, the Saints will get to be run-first largely thanks to the advantage that its strong pass defense enjoys against the Jets' rookie-led, pass-first offense.
Tennessee will win again off a bye week, but its lack of offensive firepower and Jacksonville's improved defense in addition to the Jaguars' anemic offense and Tennessee's defense off the bye will keep the scoring low. I expect a 20-10 type game.
For the above reasons, play the Saints ATS and the Jaguars/Titans "under."
Best Bet: Parlay Saints -6 at -110 & Jaguars/Titans Under 44 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
